Director Europe, Russia, Eurasia @csis. Host EuroFile/RussianRoulette. Fmr @amprog, State Department (PM/T/SP). Dad, husband, also @maxbergmann.bsky.social
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Nov 10 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
I think Ukraine has consistently badly misread Washington and American politics and this speaks to that.
To clarify, many of Ukraine’s ardent backers in DC are never Trump Rs that attacked the Biden admin from the right. But this group is politically homeless. Biden is the HAWK in US politics. Meanwhile, the Trump/GOP are filled w/ China-firsters, neo-isolationists, withholding aid.
Jul 12 • 22 tweets • 5 min read
Some NATO summit thoughts. Overall, it was a drama-less summit (at least on substance). Admin did a good job setting Ukrainian expectations, limiting acrimony, and focusing on NATO’s historic role. But summit was also a missed opportunity to set a new course. Thread. 1/
Let’s start with the deliverables. First, the Ukraine aid (air defense, etc) and the security agreements and compact are significant. NATO coordinating Ukraine aid less so (is the US doing a bad job???) but may insulate coordination in event of Trump. 2/
Jun 11 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
My main take away from the European Parliamentary elections is that it is kinda hard to have a grand European take away. Lots of cross-cutting trends that makes me think the general direction of travel Europe is basically okay. Some misc thoughts/caveats. 1/1. The big caveat is France and Germany. Europe's two most important countries are a political mess. Berlin's dysfunction has been a huge problem for the EU. Now Paris c/d be as well.
Oct 4, 2023 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
The chaos in the House leaves Ukraine in a dangerous limbo.
Let’s be clear, if the US congress does not pass a funding bill, Ukraine will be in deep trouble. A lot of Ukrainians will die and their ability to fight on will be severely compromised. Here’s why… 🧵
Without funding the US will not be able to rapidly supply Ukrainian forces. The US is currently doing this through “Presidential Drawdown Authority” which enables POTUS to take equipment from US military stocks and send to Ukraine. That enables rapid supply. 2/
Jul 26, 2023 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Does any one have any sense of what is going on with the Ukraine supplemental??? I see @PunchbowlNews and @JakeSherman reporting we're now heading to a govt shutdown. This does not seem to bode well for Ukraine funding... which seems nowhere. 1/ punchbowl.news/archive/72623-…
To fund Ukraine McCarthy w/d have to bring a supplemental appropriation for Ukraine up for a floor vote. That will be difficult for him, as it will divide his caucus. Alternatively, congress c/d plus up reg State/DoD sec asst budgets. But this c/d run up vs. debt ceiling deal. 2/
Sep 16, 2022 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
A quick thread on European arms shipments to Ukraine. It’s both impressive and disappointing. What folks are missing is this is all about money. The US has allocated funds, the EU has not (it’s now out of EU funding). This means US arms flow, while European arms don’t 1/
For ex, this announcement is possible b/c Congress passed bills allocating $50+bn to support Ukraine. This $600m is thee admin just drawing down from that funding and implementing the bill. The funding is what enables the US to give away equipment. Europe doesn’t have that. 2/
Jun 29, 2022 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Some thoughts on the NATO summit. This is clearly a historic summit in a number of ways (outlined in this thread). Everyone (largely) stepped up and met the moment, US, Spain, Turkey, etc. 1/
First, breakthrough with Turkey with Finland and Sweden is a BFD and was not predicted. Shows the importance of summits as forcing functions and getting folks in the room. Lack of progress would have been a big story and led to bad vibes and fears over how this would play out. 2/
Jun 26, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Europe desperately needs its own Ukraine assistance act, matching the $40bn US package. European military support has been strong but ad hoc. Europe is not financially prepared to support Ukraine militarily over the long haul. New from me and Naz Gocek. 1/ csis.org/analysis/europ…
There is a danger that European militaries will be weaker in 2023 than in 2021. The issue is that European militaries face a trade off b/w rebuilding themselves and aiding Ukraine. Military spending is now rising across Europe. But these increases are not a cure-all. 2/
Apr 24, 2022 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
The stars are aligning in Europe for major advances in European integration. The current array of political leaders - with pro-EU leaders not just Paris and Berlin, but also Rome, Madrid, and a subtle weakening of the "frugals" c/d lead to real change.🧵
First, the new govt in Berlin is decidedly pro-EU and supportive of strengthening the EU. That was clear from each party platform. It was also Scholz as Finance Minister that really pushed for the historic NextGenEU initiative. 2/
Apr 21, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Big news in Biden's remarks today is that the USG has fully spent the $13bn for Ukraine. 1. That's astonishing. USG is getting kit out the door. 2. There will be a new Ukraine supplemental. Big Q: will State actually make a big Sec. Assist. request. 1/ abc7chicago.com/russia-ukraine…
State should absolutely be making a massive request for FMF (security assistance). Supporting Ukraine is both urgent an priority and a long term task. But they s/d also be requesting funding to aid Euro security, as well as transition countries off of Russian kit... 2/
Mar 22, 2022 • 18 tweets • 5 min read
🧵Few Presidential trips could be as significant as Biden's trip to Brussels this week. Biden has a huge opportunity to transform Europe and strengthen US security. But unfortunately, I'm afraid he will miss the moment.
The meeting to watch is Biden's visit to the EU council. 1/
Literally all Biden has to do is go to the EU Council and firmly endorse a plan - currently being discussed by the EU - to borrow 100s of billions for defense and energy security. Biden just needs to tell them to...DO IT! @benjaminhaddad 2/ foreignaffairs.com/articles/europ…
Mar 7, 2022 • 19 tweets • 5 min read
🧵on US security assistance to Ukraine. It's working. Ukraine might be one of the biggest successes of US sec assistance. And the reason is b/c US aid didn't focus on some high-end shiny objects but on core mil tasks. That focus s/d remain. 1/
In 2014, the US had no security assistance relationship with Ukraine. They got like $2m in asst from State FMF for int peacekeeping. The Ukrainian military was in a total shambles. Corruption had literally gutted the military. 2/
Mar 6, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
So on getting Ukraine fighter jets. It's not a straight forward call. Only thing feasible w/d be for Ukr to get old Soviet jets that they know how to fly. Fmr Warsaw Pact NATO members, Poland, Slovakia, Bulgaria (unbelievably) still fly them. 1/
It is common for countries to transfer used weapon systems. The US has the "Excess Defense Articles" program where countries come and pick up old US mil equipment and bring it home. This would essentially be that. Ukrainian pilots could come pick up the aircraft. 2/
Mar 5, 2022 • 10 tweets • 5 min read
🚨Here. We. Go! What me and @benjaminhaddad proposed, a NextGenEU II is on the table. Biden admin must CLEARLY voice its support for this.
I fear US officials don't appreciate what a historic opportunity this is. This is a once in a generation moment. 🧵 politico.eu/article/ukrain…
The problem outlined by @HalBrands of US military overstretch - split b/w Euro and Asian theaters - w/d be resolved by this EU initiative; paired w/ increases in German defense spending. Europe would be mobilizing to become a legit global military power. foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…
Mar 4, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
The time has come for EU defense. New from me and @benjaminhaddad calling on the EU to borrow 400m euros, a NextGenEU II. If the EU can borrow for econ recovery, it can borrow for defense. 1/ politico.eu/article/ukrain…
The EU funds could be used to: 1. Fill key NATO capability gaps, making EU "complimentary" of NATO. 2. Acquire high-end systems for the entire Union -enablers, like fleets of air-transport/tankers, ISR-UAVs. And air and missile defense systems. 3. The EU...2/
Feb 27, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
We are witnessing the emergence of a global power in this crisis: the European Union. I was confident that a Russian invasion w/d be a shock to Europe and lead to a robust response. But never w/d I have predicted the announcements from Germany, EU, and others. Truly stunning. 1/
In a blink of an eye Germany will spend 100bn euros on defense. To put this in context their entire defense budget is 53bn euros. Germany, Sweden, and the EU are sending lethal asst. This will dramatically grow EU's hard power capabilities. 2/
Feb 18, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
This is a very insightful and thoughtful thread. Let me offer one point. I think the Russia analyst community never really grappled with the significance of Russian interference in the US election. It was a clear sign Russia was content w/ a new Cold war. Thread. 1/
It was super easy to lose the thread on what actually happened in 2016. Not just b/c it became a huge US political scandal but it also descended into a tedious legal affair. FP analysts also (understandably) wanted to stay out of that morass and focused more on disinfo. 2/
Feb 11, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
What should be clear to everyone is that Russia has rejected diplomacy. They have now dismissed countless efforts to engage them on actual substance - mil exercises, conventional forces, deployment of mil assets. They've simply rejected talks. 1/
Instead, they're making farcical demands, essentially asking the US and Europe to control-alt-delete the last 25 yrs and go back to Soviet times when they ran Eastern Europe. Sorry, no. But they know that's not happening! All the huffing and puffing about NATO is just pretext. 2/
Dec 21, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
If Russia invades, there will be efforts to blame the US for somehow triggering the Kremlin. See the amount of attention given to Javelin (it's just a fancy RPG people!) or NATO expansion 20 yrs ago! No. The cause is that Putin lost Ukraine and he can't deal with that. 1/
Putin's strategy to control Ukraine hasn't worked. After Crimea/Donbas, killing of Ukrainian forces, etc., Ukrainians quite reasonably want little to do w/ Moscow. They want to be European (as do many Russians). Neither grayzone efforts nor Minsk has worked. 2/
1. France is right to be pissed. It's like they were left at the alter and found out via text. 2. But AUKSUS makes more strategic sense for Australia. No good way to end it w/ France. 3. US is stuck in the 90s..1/ nytimes.com/2021/09/17/us/…
on Europe. The US pivoted to Asia, yet for Europe we pretend like its still the 90s, when we were hyper-engaged and determined to call the shots. We pretend we haven't pivoted when it is clear we have! Now we want Europe to just follow and get in line but w/o really engaging.
Jun 2, 2021 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
Just out! New @amprog report from me, @sienacicarelli, @jdlamond. I love the 90s! But it is past time for the US to drop its longstanding opposition to EU defense and back the EU's defense ambitions. See @herszenhorn's @POLITICOEurope piece 1/ politico.eu/article/report…
We argue that the EU is in no way a challenge to NATO. In fact, greater European defense integration is exactly what NATO needs and is what the EU can help deliver. See report here. 2/ americanprogress.org/issues/securit…
