Thread by @Greens4HS2

We keep coming across some misunderstandings from Greens about what #HS2 is, where it goes , what it's for and how much it costs. So here's a thread dealing with a few. /1

Let's start with where it goes. "Just 20 minutes quicker to Birmingham", people say. Nope: on the day that #HS2 starts, in 2029, its trains will also serve Liverpool, Manchester and Glasgow. Here's the service pattern for day 1. Each line = one train per hour both ways: /2

The trains run on the new railway between London and Birmingham, then continue their journeys on the existing railway - which will be being upgraded in the meantime to smooth things out. This is just like French TGVs do. /3

A couple of years later, the new Euston station will open and more trains can run: 3 per hour to B'ham and Manchester as well as other services. Here's the service pattern (you can see these in the Business Case here assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…): /4

And they'll be much faster than now: Birmingham 32 mins quicker at just 49 mins; Liverpool 40 mins quicker; Manchester eventually 1 hour quicker at 1hr 7 mins; Glasgow eventually 50 mins quicker. /5

When the other part of HS2 is built - "Phase 2b" to Manchester, Leeds and York - a whole slew of new services will run. New trains to Sheffield, Leeds, York, Newcastle and Edinburgh. Here's the service pattern: /6

And of course, these new trains replace the express trains on the existing network, so that it's freed up for much better regional and local services. This gives thousands of people in and around Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds the opportunity to use train and ditch the car. /7

So it's not just a fast line to Birmingham - it's equivalent to a reboot of the whole railway network in the Midlands / North - the groundwork for Midlands Connect Rail and Northern Powerhouse Rail. Next up - how much it's going to cost and could it fund the NHS instead.... /8

... As promised, the next misunderstanding - HS2 is going to cost over £100bn. Nope. Read on. /9

HS2's total cost will be in the range of £81bn to £88bn. That's for the whole thing, London to Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds, with new stations in those places and all the trains. Let's clear up a few things... /1

Firstly, it's really hard to work out how much large infrastructure projects cost - like REALLY HARD. No-one ever gets it right. And HS2 has some awkward factors which make it harder - we'll deal with them later on./2

The most up-to-date numbers come from the Oakervee review, which is here: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…. It's not that long and quite an informative read. /3

The first phase of HS2, from London to Birmingham, will cost between £41bn and £43bn at 2019 prices. That includes the new stations at Euston, Old Oak Common, Birmingham Interchange and Birmingham Curson Street, plus all the trains. /4

At the same time as Phase1, Phase 2a is going to be built. That's the section from Birmingham to Crewe which allows HS2 trains to Liverpool, Manchester and Glasgow to skip Birmingham. That will cost between £4bn and £4.5bn. /5

By now these prices have got a good handle on them so shouldn't change too much. But they're more expensive than they should be. Why? the main reasons is
government made the contractors liable for all failures, so they raised their prices. /6

That added maybe 30% to the cost. (Nigel Harris, @RAIL, the widely-respected editor of RAIL magazine, has had words about this - you can read his thoughts about it and how no mainstream journalists managed to pick it up here: railmagazine.com/research-hub/c…) /7

The second phase of HS2, from Birmingham to Manchester and Leeds, is expected to cost £36bn to £40bn. The route for that is still being designed so there's some uncertainty. But lessons will be learned from Phase 1. So that could go either way. /8

So what about that £106bn? It's an unofficial estimate submitted to Oakervee, analysed and rejected - below is what he said about it. It's a big number and the papers got hold of it, but it has no sound basis. /9

Anything else is speculation for now. While we're on the subject of costs, we're going to a thread on why cancelling HS2, as some campaigners want to do, won't free up any money to spend on the NHS or cycle schemes - in fact it'll cost money. /end

... and here is that thread. Enjoy.

... and here's a thread about another widely-held misunderstanding: that HS2 is all about increasing air travel. It most certainly is not: