Thread by @phillyrich1

Why I'm optimistic about the current state of COVID-19

Sweden's big run up in cases began 5/24 and peaked around 6/29. Let's call that 5 weeks. They did basically nothing to stop this upswing in cases.

Here's Florida. Their big run up in cases began the start of June and peaked around 7/16. Let's call that 6 weeks.

Here's Texas. Their big run up in cases also began the start of June and peaked around 7/18. Let's call that 6 weeks.

Here's NY. Its hard to tell when their big run up began since the testing wasn't really up to par at the start. But let's say it began the 3/1. It peaked 4/10. Let's call that 6 weeks.

Now go back and look at NY & Sweden after they peaked. They both experienced a massive downward slope in cases. Based on my purely unscientific methods, FL and TX are on the brink of that downward slope.

Perhaps this is just the natural course of this virus.

Based on Sweden & NY, my guess is that in about a month, just when schools are to open, FL and TX will have new cases that are roughly 20-30% of where they were at the peak.

Obviously at that point the media will credit Cuomo/NY for the success of FL & TX.