Thread by @epigiri

In India, the following are the latest weekly incremental increase in absolute value
• Testing / Week: 25 lacs
• Positive / Cases: 2.3 lacs
• Deaths : 4150

Data analysis: Jeeavanrakshe
For more details, send email to:
Mr Mysore Sanjeev email: [e-mail]

1 of N

The 7 day and 30 day moving average growth rates are in this graph.

Too early to say, but we might have begun to plateau with several other conditions

1. Parts of central India is yet to peak; can alter the trajectory
2. Need to wait out for the surge in southern states

2 of N

Compared to nations having more than 100K COVID cases, the death pattern
a. Average #DPM is 151 v/s India's current DPM of 19.5
b. Highest DPM of a nation is 665 and least is 15
c. Tests per Mn Population 45760 v/s India; 9480
d. Cases / Mn Population 3478 v/s India: 740
3 of N

Several factors will influence India's future DPM

a. Test positivity directly proportionate to testing
b. Recently launched medication and plasma therapy
c. Limited health infrastructure and manpower especially medical professionals
d. Tier 2 & 3 cities yet to peak

4 of N

India’s current mortality rate is 2.5% dropped over the last few weeks there is a drop in mortality rate, primarily due to sharp increase in the denominator (number of positive cases).

Death per million is steadily increasing in several cities, towns; currently 20.

5 of N

Testing Data
India 9480 Tests per Million (TPM)
18 nations >100K COVID: 45760 TPM
India’s Test Positivity 6.9%.
Tamil Nadu has tested highest number of people in India. It has tested 1.88 Mn people, which indicates 24145 tests per million population.
6 of N

Testing Data
Andhra Pradesh is a star performer: 3.5% Positivity rate, below National rate of 6.9%, only state having more than 2,000 Positive COVID cases in all districts.
MH has highest 19.8% positivity.
WB 6925 TPM below national average. High mortality rate of 6%.
7 of N

EAG states Testing

Bihar 2951 TPM, least among all states and UTs in India. Test Positivity 6.9%,

In Uttar Pradesh, cases per million population has increased from 75 to 208 in a span of 4 weeks, 6,000 TPM

Rajasthan cases per million has increased 4 times TPM is 14800

8 of N

Mortality Trend in EAG States

Low mortality rate (1.6%) and Deaths per million population (2) compared to the national average of MR of 2.5% and DPM of 19.

Testing rates should increase drastically with improved surveillance mechanisms for improved case detection.

9 of N

#Delhi data

Highest recovery rate of over 86%: most are mild
30-day moving average growth rate of active cases is (-)6%.
Death Per Million population has increased from 106 to 182, highest among all states & UTs in India
Mortality rate of 3%, highest in the country

10 of N

Vast majority of India’s population lives in semi-urban & rural areas which has relatively weaker health infrastructure. Over last 2 weeks number of deaths in semi-urban and rural areas are higher than in mega cities. The strategy for these areas should be strengthened.

11 of N

The outbreak in micro states and union territories is not yet a major concern, small sample, sparse data bias.

N of N