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Hugh Lewis Profile picture
Hugh Lewis
@ProfHughLewis
Member of the Astronautics Research Group at the University of Southampton with interests in space debris, NEOs, modelling and AI. Also a #pwME

Jul 29, 2020, 5 tweets

New response to @FCC by @SpaceX identifies probability of #Starlink collision with large #spacedebris is 8E-5. Single conjunction event < 0.5 km on 2 July with SL-3 R/B predicted by SOCRATES on 30 June 2020 had max. probability of 3.5E-5 (dilution thresh: 0.169)

Another event in the same SOCRATES report predicted miss of 172 m on 30 June with 3CAT-2 & max. probability of 1.39E-4 (dilution threshold: 0.044).

I realise that I am quite likely comparing apples & oranges here, but that's also one of the points I am trying to make.

I will leave this chart here again...

P.S. Forgot to say: SL-3 R/B conjunction was with STARLINK-1020 at 11.8 km/s, 3CAT-2 conjunction was with STARLINK-1265 at 5.8 km/s

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