Alex, thanks for reminding me. Here's my Week 4 update! 1/4
Unfortunately, the national trend now clearly shows deaths rising. There is no need to segment the data by hot-spot states to see the trend. This is exactly as predicted. 2/5
The purpose of my thread was to explain why the national data previously showed cases rising and deaths decreasing. I stand by my observation and I’m confident that the primary driver was Simpson’s paradox. Now, how about the number of deaths? 3/5
Deaths will continue to rise. Where will they end up? It’s anyone’s guess and it’s a dynamic situation. I applaud states like TX and AZ, for taking masks more seriously and rolling back their re-openings. This will have an impact on the death rate. 4/5
Re-reading my thread, I regret saying there was nothing we could do. Mandating masks, rolling back re-openings, and testing and contact tracing will help. I hope we can act rationally, especially when addressing new questions like re-opening schools. 5/5
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