I’ll expand. I live in CA. I get the anger, and it does seem “unfair.” I also understand this was originally a slave state compromise, obviously not a good origin story. However, it serves to give smaller population states an equal voice.
Feb 14, 2021 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
Turning 43 this weekend. Hitting harder than 40. Bittersweet like much in life these days. Here’s a few things I’ve learned in my 40+ years. Thread 1/10👇🏼
“You’ll never predict where life will take you. Your wildest expectations aren’t wild enough.” I’ve been on the cover of Wired, lost out on millions, made millions, been #1 on YouTube, produced hits and flops. 2/10
Viruses mutate, sometimes those mutations make them more infectious, more deadly, or different enough that our immune system sees it as “new.” Theses COVID mutations fit into several of these buckets.
Jul 31, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Alex, thanks for reminding me. Here's my Week 4 update! 1/4
Unfortunately, the national trend now clearly shows deaths rising. There is no need to segment the data by hot-spot states to see the trend. This is exactly as predicted. 2/5
Jul 30, 2020 • 21 tweets • 4 min read
Should we send our kids back to school? The debate has taken on a hysterical tone, divided largely along party lines. Why are we disagreeing so much? Simply put, our brains are defective. Don’t believe me? Let’s dive in 1/21 #COVID19#ThursdayThoughts
First, let’s understand how our brains evolved. It’s a mess. Evolution stacks system upon system, often with competing agendas. We are literally of two minds. Our so-called “lizard brain,” the amygdala, and our neocortex, a recently evolved structure found only in mammals. 2/21
Jul 2, 2020 • 15 tweets • 5 min read
The trillion dollar question. Why are COVID cases increasing while deaths are decreasing? The answer is simple. It's called Simpson's paradox and it's the result of incorrectly pooling data and arriving at a false conclusion. A thread 1/9 #COVID19#ThursdayThoughts2/9 If you lump the data and look at the US as a whole, you'll observe: Cases are increasing, positivity rate is increasing, hospitalizations are increasing, and deaths are decreasing. Until recently, it also looked liked hospitalizations were decreasing and positivity was flat.
May 9, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1/4 The thing that boggles my mind is people posting data like this as “proof” that we overreacted, that we should re-open, that this whole thing is basically a liberal “hoax.”
2/4 This data is likely accurate, we’re seeing more and more randomized population-based antibody testing showing far more are infected than previously “thought” (although I’d argue that many people, myself included, have thought this for a long time).
Apr 16, 2020 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
@InfiniteStake @ttskbmar@HelenBranswell I understand your tweet. Based on all the data I’ve seen, and my gut, it will end up being “quite a bit” more deadly than the flu and “way more contagious than the flu” aka R0 of 5-6 and CFR of .5-1%
@InfiniteStake @ttskbmar@HelenBranswell For context, the current CFR is 6.6% (take all deaths divided by all cases). Estimates I’ve seen for R0 are 1.4-2ish.
