Thread by @cam_joseph

People were right to freak out about @realDonaldTrump's election tweets - but for less obvious reasons. He's turned mail voting into a partisan issue, and with lots more Dems set to vote by mail and mail ballots more likely to get tossed, a crisis looms. vice.com/en_us/article/…

Polls show Dems are 2x as likely to vote by mail as R's this year. That means Trump could be up considerably on election night before #s swing dramatically in Dems' favor in the days/weeks afterwards. Trump will likely lie, claim fraud. But the bigger threat: disenfranchisement

Usually, mail ballots get tossed at 1%-4% rates depending on the state, but that's not that big a deal since it's usually roughly equal D&R. This year they're gonna be much more heavily Dem — and that rate could double, if things look like they did during this year's primaries.

@Redistrict did a great hypothetical in his piece from yesterday: nbcnews.com/politics/2020-…

All this won't matter if @realDonaldTrump is losing the national vote by 8ish pts like he is currently. But if things get close, we could be looking at months of court fights and one side that won't accept the results, whatever they are. This is a really dangerous situation.

(For a good sense of how much things could swing from election day to the full count, a recent NY House special went from the Repub up by 40 on election day to him only winning by 5 after mail ballots were counted. That might be an extreme example — but def possible.)