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1) Last night I said we have 12 data points (AZ statewide, FL statewide +4 specific counties, IA + 2 counties, OH 2 counties, and NC).

Every single one was showing GOP turnout higher than midterm levels of 2014 and all but one (a county) showing turnout above 2016.
2) If I recall all the data correctly, D turnout/performance was below that of 2016 and, in the case of IA, below that of 2014.

3) Now we have two more data points to add: news out of WY that a net of 10k switched from D/other to R in last six months & turnout #s in Knox Co. TN
3) Out of 12 MEASURABLE data points--not polls which are opinions of what people "might" do in the future---every single one is favors the Rs.

4) I'll admit, I got a tad depressed for a minute yesterday when the latest Siena/NYT polls came out . . . before I was reminded . . .
Read 5 tweets
1) A little story about "exit polls."

2) The year was 2004. Kerry was supposedly leading W.

3) I was active in a key precinct in Dayton, OH, a true bellwether for ALL of OH.

4) Rs knew if their voters turned out (due to R registration edge) W would win.
5) I was assigned to do "poll flushing." This is when you go to the precinct at 10:00 am and 4:00 pm and check off all the Republicans who had voted.

Then callers will get on the phone to those who haven't yet voted & try to get them out.
6) The first poll flushing was normal and expected #s.

7) I went home and hear Rush going on and on about the exit polling showing a Kerry win.

8) Some of the conservative websites were melting down. "It's over!"
Read 6 tweets
Follow-ups to @oldnorthstpol tweet thread about today’s data on NC ‘early votes’ (aka Absentee One-Stop (In-Person) Accepted Ballots).

Seems like solid start to NC early voting for next 18 days (longer than in 2010 & 2014). Will need more data to see though

#ncpol #ncvotes
@oldnorthstpol In looking at NC voter party registration for first day of early voting:

Registered Democrats: 43% (compared to 38% of total reg as of 10-13)

Reg GOP: 31% (29% of total reg)

Reg unaffiliated: 26% (31% of total reg)

#ncpol #ncvotes
@oldnorthstpol Comparison of 2018’s first ‘early voting’ day by voter party registration to the cumulative daily total trendlines in 2010 (which had 17 days of early voting) & 2014 (which had 10 days of EV):

#ncpol #ncvotes
Read 14 tweets
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1) Just so you all understand what I do, for the one-millionth time, I don't do polls.

Yes, from time to time I will post one for those of you who do. But we're WAY past polls now because we have actual NUMBERS.

2) A poll is a sample of opinions that cost nothing to give.
3) For example, before a horse race you can poll everyone---including jockeys (who may or may not know something), owners, bettors, whomever. But it's just an opinion.

Moreover, you have to know that in a political poll you have the correct sample (most absolutely do not).
4) The sample anymore is almost impossible to get, and certainly you cannot get it by phone only and you cannot get it by "self-reporting." So far, only @PPDNews and Trafalgar have a track record of really getting "likely" voters in the proper sample sizes.

5) I don't do polls.
Read 27 tweets
this is the twitter version of the lecture I gave to an undergraduate wildlife management class, called "Conservation and How Colonialism Fucked Everything" (not really).

short version: #bloodparks
I was taught a sanitized version of American wildlife management/conservation. it's only through self-study/listening that I learned any of this. By not acknowledging the violence that occurred in the US w/ regards to wildlife/resources we do our students a disservice #bloodparks
look at the news for a week & you hear plenty of news about how there's a biodiversity crisis. we're losing species at a v high rate. we're in the sixth mass extinction.

we blame proximate causes..."poaching", recent deforestation, but that's not where it started. #bloodparks
Read 75 tweets
1) Latest #s

First, Montgomery Co., OH (a blue swing county that voted for Trump)

This is an estimate based on absentee REQUESTS after all "indies" are allocated. Only a handful of RETURNED ballots so far.

Rs19578
Ds16542

R lead of 3,000 is pretty consistent with 2016
2) FL:
10/15/18: Rs 152,191 (45.5%)
D 121,594 (36.3%)
Rs + 30,597

Here are 2016 #s for comparison (same Monday, different date):
10/17/16: Rs 210,629 (41.07%)
D 210,595 (41.06%)

Then: a lead of 34 for Rs (Rs way ahead of 2016 pace).
3) There have been about 3,000 problem ballots, overwhelmingly Ds. (Includes such things as missing info, missing signatures)

They have 100 more problem ballots even though Rs have cast 30,000 more total ballots!
Read 6 tweets
1/ Been talking about my vision for a systematic VC fund. Think Renaissance Technologies in the private markets. Here is initial strawman of how it could work. Flow her is industry->tech->outreach->validation-> negotiation->close->post close.

Don’t have all the answers.
2/ Starts w/ stage & industry. Cant have too much competition (not tech b/c 1k vc firms), must have large mkt, enough data (not seed stage), biz models largely standardized so you can generalize training data.
CPG perfect. $15T industry few active VCs.
3/ Need small Information Advantage (IA) + Large Sample (N). IA won't be perfect so must spread out over large population. Said differently- predictions won't be guaranteed, so need to make a lot of bets to capture the value of the IA.

Read 37 tweets
🌿Breathe🌿

📌Curious...

Instead of offering his condolences, Don Jr. conjures up a false narrative to smear brutally murdered Jamal Khashoggi.

📌Why does DonJr need to create a false narrative?🤔

📌Pastor Brunson released the day after Khashoggi was murdered in Turkey. 🙄
🌿Breathe🌿

Last surviving prosecutor at Nuremberg trials says Trump's family separation policy is ‘crime against humanity’

‘What could cause more great suffering than what they did in the name of immigration law?'

Btwn 25-30 journalists are currently detained in Saudi Arabia
🌿Breathe3🌿

Kushner Likely Paid No Federal Income Taxes for Years, Docs Show

Now for Rent: Email addys & phone #s for Millions of Trump Supporters

📌Is it legal to ‘rent’ stolen/hacked/scraped data?

A humanitarian crisis in Venezuela? Nothing to see here, government says
Read 54 tweets
Recently released Tax Base stats gives new insight into challenges facing @jcps_district & @JC_Gov wrt School Funding. Important for public & elected (who need public support) 2 address challenges-Similar 2 #JerseyCity's Reval, School Funding Crisis=quantifiable & foreseeable 1/n
2/Tagging Elected Upfront. Important for public to know who has agency on our behalf to oversee schools, incl $$
BOE oversees @jcps_district: @ThomasForNJ @LorenzoRichJC @MussabAliJC @MattSchapiroJC @pastorlipe @njgerald @Amy_DeGise #MarilynRoman #VidyaGangadin
3/These are people w agency to act on our behalf to oversee City/Muicipality. Any new revenue stream (eg #PayrollTax) to fund schools will be authorized by: @RLavarro @JCCALDR @Pastorjoice @DeniseRidleyJC @miramira4 #RichardBoggiano @CouncilmanYun @SolomonforJC @Jermaine4WardF
Read 25 tweets
Update on #FamilySeparation - more questions than answers, really really important. Yesterday @amnesty put out this report. Please read thread below to get informed 1/ #FamiliesBelongTogether:
amnestyusa.org/reports/usa-ca…
Basically what this report tells us is that Amnesty got some numbers from Border Patrol that state that in the heightened period of family separation/zero tolerance 6 THOUSAND family units were separated. Why this # is significant & scary follow below #FamiliesBelongTogether 2/
As we all know - the ONLY PRESSURED REUNIFICATIONS that have happened since zero-tolerance have been driven by the @ACLU's lawsuit against the government, but the "class" (as in the individuals eligible for relief from that lawsuit pressure) is limited to parents. 3/
Read 10 tweets
1/ Spent some time looking at crypto exchange trading volumes last night.
Here are some gems highlighting the actual liquidity in the $12b of reported 24h volume.
coinmarketcap.com/currencies/vol…
2/ BTC leads the crypto market in both total valuation & liquidity. 31% of the daily volume was BTC trading.
3/ The leading exchanges & pairs are however perhaps not as friendly looking as an institution or regulator might hope. 4 of the top 10 pairs were with USDT (Tether), the #3 was Dash on ZB, & many of the top 10 exchanges are not well known (or are seen as ?able).
Read 25 tweets
BREAKING: A California Man Charged In Connection With Mueller's Russian Troll Farm Case Was Sentenced To Six Months In Prison buzzfeednews.com/article/zoetil…
Richard Pinedo was charged with selling bank account #s that allegedly helped Russians engaged in election interference evade PayPal security measures (no allegation Pinedo knew that). He'll serve six months in prison, followed by six months home detention buzzfeednews.com/article/zoetil…
Govt did not formally ask for a lower sentence b/c the limits of Mueller's authority meant they didn't act on certain info Pinedo provided (wouldn't say if they'd referred it to a US atty's office). Judge questioned if Pinedo was prejudiced because of that buzzfeednews.com/article/zoetil…
Read 4 tweets
Hello on this unseasonably warm October morning from the federal courthouse in DC, where Richard Pinedo — the California man who pleaded guilty in connection with Mueller's Russian troll farm case — is due for sentencing. Refresher: buzzfeednews.com/article/chrisg…
Pinedo pleaded guilty to selling bank account #s set up under other people's names so his customers could get around PayPal security features. Prosecutors allege some of his customers were Russians using PayPal to finance election interferece (no allegation that Pinedo knew that)
PInedo is asking for no jail time — in his sentencing memo, his lawyer wrote that Pinedo had cooperated with the special counsel's office, and feared for his safety. Document: assets.documentcloud.org/documents/4946…
Read 4 tweets
So I'm on the membership committee for @TheSouthernSHA #2018SHA, & we are still a few members short of our #s from last year. Please join here (only $10 for students!!!):
thesha.org/braintree-drop…

Also, if you need a financial sponsor, shoot me a DM & I'll find one for you.😊
P.S. and if you make it to B'ham, be sure to check out our panel Saturday afternoon: "Management, Workers, & Mill Towns in the Southern Piedmont."

This is a subject dear to my ❤️. My mother grew up in a mill village house down the street from this cotton mill (in SC upcountry):
Read 3 tweets
A lot of brouhaha in the #gunviolence world about this well-reported article showing that @CDCgov data on the number of NON-FATAL gun injuries is not accurate. fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-c…

I want to highlight a few things about this article.
1. First, kudos to the writers for highlighting an issue that all of us #gunviolence researchers bemoan: that there are NO GOOD SOURCES OF DATA on non-fatal gun injuries. As the article reports, even the CDC admits that its data on #gunviolence injuries are unreliable.
2. Please note that this issue is not unique to #gunviolence non-fatal injuries. It’s also observed for other types of injuries (like drownings).

It’s because of the way that the CDC is forced to collect non-fatal-injury data.
Read 19 tweets
1/ Thread containing the reasons why I believe that Bitfinex is completely insolvent.
2/ Customers have noted on the subreddit:

A) Trouble accessing the exchange
B) SOME issues withdrawing/depositing crypto
C) Funding autorenew shifted irrevocably to 'on'
D) Zero response from Bitfinex customer service reps
E) No successful fiat withdrawals in a month
3/ Here's the official link to see all of the posts on Bitfinex's Reddit (INCLUDING the deleted ones):

All you have to do to see deleted posts on Reddit is replace the 'R' in Reddit with a 'C' for any subreddit address and you'll see deleted posts
Read 7 tweets
@mikepegger @Fujikatsan @DtotheIzzoAcres @Brian_Pallister I have read several sources, most do hold Sweden up as "the best concept"

I'm not going to post those as they are easy to find

I found some contradictions even among the positive ones, so it is a little confusing

It seems Sweden put the tax into general revenues

1
@mikepegger @Fujikatsan @DtotheIzzoAcres @Brian_Pallister Like I said not 100% sure on details, so my points are based on what I can see, which may not be correct

The gov did make a commitment to spending BIG on environmental objectives

That seems different form Canada, where there is "promise" the money all comes back to prov

2
@mikepegger @Fujikatsan @DtotheIzzoAcres @Brian_Pallister The gov seems more interested on wealth redistribution then committing all cash to projects to further reduce carbon

Is there "demands" on % that must be spent on those projects?

Sweden now has "communal heating" where a central repository is shared among several houses
3
Read 31 tweets
#QCLock Theory

#Q's posts are monitored by both #Patriots & the #DeepState, so Q cannot telegraph every move. However, there's seems to be a clock in place, w/post numbers essentially acting as a countdown to 2400...midnight for the #cabal...w/a planned #RedOctober take down.
#RedOctober has clearly referenced a timeline where the coordinated arrests will occur this month, prior to the 2018 election.

"Red October" was first referenced on 11/20/17 as "The Hunt for Red October."
"Red October" has appeared 20 times in #Q's posts.

The reference to "The Hunt for Red October" was thought to have many meanings:
- Dealing w/a rogue nuclear sub (think Hawaii)
- Cyberespionage malware
- The plan culmination in the plan in October 2018 (#RedOctober)
Read 8 tweets
Some of what we’ve learned: The final ‘i’ dotted, the last ‘t’ crossed, that cemented the NAFTA deal Sunday night was Lighthizer, Freeland, and their teams working out a tariff threshold for Canadian autos so high that it basically is more symbolic than real. 1/
2/ You’ve perhaps seen the details about no-auto-tariffs-ever unless Canada exports 44% more cars to the US? Apparently it goes beyond that — adjustments include switching to the more generous (NAICS) import coding system. Basically, Canada isn’t hitting these #s anytime soon
3/ Our reporting shows two distinct narratives on How The Deal Went Down. They’re not necessarily mutually exclusive. But in the 🇺🇸 gov’t telling: “We scared Canada with tariffs, they gave us dairy, we got a deal.” In the 🇨🇦 govt telling: “Um, we offered the dairy thing weeks
Read 8 tweets
Thrilled to launch Long Reads Live tonight - a weekly riff w/ the smartest, most interesting people I can find about the ideas shaping crypto. For this kickoff episode, my co-host is @Travis_Kling and we'll be joined by @katherineykwu & @myles_snider
bit.ly/longreadslive /1
2/ With so much going on, you can expect a pretty fire show. I anticipate we'll get into:

+Market manipulation in all its beautiful forms
+Regulatory intrigue
+Bitmain IPO #s and interpretation
+Viral dynamics and crypto-native equity

and maybe...the Tether Target?
3/ Big thanks to all the podcasters, creators and curators out there who produce so much great thinking. Special ups to @theonevortex whose weekly The Bitcoin News Show was a definite inspiration. youtube.com/channel/UCHFL9…
Read 3 tweets
1/ Long Reads Sunday #14. Daaaamn crypto, you really went for it. This was a week full of big announcements, market manipulation, regulatory enforcement, and a dash of various other assorted intrigue. Strap in, folks, it’s long reads time.
2/ One LRS note. Last week I announced that we’re taking this conversation off Twitter and into the realm of live. Well, it’s happening this MONDAY ~7pm EST. My first guest co-host will be @Travis_Kling and I couldn’t be more excited. More guests TBA soon. youtube.com/channel/UCMKxY…
3/ Little has gotten our big-little industry yapping like the Bitmain IPO. For weeks, the convo has been intrigue w BCH, but with the IPO filing, @katherineykwu @MessariCrypto hulked out & summarized all the numbers.
Read 31 tweets
1/Thread - a snapshot of current polling in midst of #Kavanaugh fight. Using @FiveThirtyEight over last few weeks Trump's favs improved a bit, now 41.5/52.8 but the generic has worsened for the Rs, now stands at 49.6/40.9. Both these results suggest a very good year for the Ds.
2/My take is Rs now have a very low ceiling across the country. Of 45 top Gov/Senate/House battlegrounds w/recent polls Rs over 50% in only 4 or 5 (not incl TX Sen or AZ Gov); and have no lead outside margin of error in any Gov or Sen battleground. realclearpolitics.com
3/Rs not leading in governor's races in FL, GA, OH, PA, MI, WI, IA and NV - all critical 2020 battlegrounds. Could end up winning some but GOP can't be happy here.
Read 9 tweets
Why the ⁦@GOP⁩ ⁦@ChuckGrassley⁩ ⁦@OrrinHatch⁩ ⁦@senjudiciary⁩ are fast tracking and acting like thugs, by essentially using extortion for Dr Ford’s appearance?
Simple since Monday Kavanaugh has fallen off the cliff, upside down #s usatoday.com/story/news/pol…
Women by double digits believe Ford's accusations:
35% to 21% = 14+ points

Men by nine percentage points believe Kavanaugh's denials,
37% to 28& = 9+ points

Women OPPOSE Kavanaugh confirmation by 20+points, 43% to 23%
men support him by four points,
40% to 36%
It should be noted that on Monday Kavanaugh’s support was as 33/34
In 4.5 days he’s lost and is now -9 under Watss in the blended number
Read 7 tweets
Earlier this week, @CassSunstein beat the extremely well-beaten drum about academia's partisan imbalance. Suggesting it may be due to discrimination, he worries about the impact of it all on students and faculty research.

Is it true? Is he right to worry?
bloomberg.com/view/articles/…
Let's take these one at a time.

1) Is there an imbalance?

Absolutely. Surveying soc sci/humanities disciplinary orgs (n=1700), Klein & Stern (2005) put the D/R ratio at about 8:1. Moreover, panel data has all faculty to the left of their party's median.

researchgate.net/publication/25…
Not good, but there are three problems with this data: 1) It's just soc/humanities; 2) Evidence suggests disciplinary orgs skew left relative to rest of the academy; and 3) Membership in orgs skew toward elite/R1 institutions.
Read 20 tweets
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