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Today, I dropped my new Ethics Plan. Let’s talk about why we need to address corruption in Washington TODAY.

@RepDavid & his history of unethical behavior:
A Thread: (1/9)
The #s:
11: the # of ethics violations @RepDavid admitted to
424: the number of pages in the investigative report detailing his misbehavior
435: the number of Representatives who reprimanded him (ALL OF THEM)
$50,000: the pricey fine he paid for his violations (2/9)
He received a *bipartisan* rebuke for gross impropriety, unethical behavior, and abuse of *taxpayer* money

He managed to do the impossible: unite both parties to condemn his behavior! (3/9)
Read 9 tweets
1) Had a few people ask today what I think about Heneghan & co's narrative that the risks of COVID-19 have been overhyped & we should aim to avoid all adverse impacts on the less vulnerable
Some thoughts (from my perspective as a public health registrar)
2) They present no evidence to demonstrate that the cure has been 'worse' than the disease. Of course measures should be targeted wherever possible, and we should absolutely strengthen Test & Trace, but the wider impacts have been worst where countries were most lax (see 12)
3) Heneghan's 'false positive tests' argument is both misleading and besides the point, especially given the clearly rising proportion of tests that are positive & COVID-related healthcare use is also increasing- see
Read 15 tweets
Asked by NDP @AndreaHorwath about plan for second wave, Health Minister @celliottability says Ontario has had a fall plan since July 30, ready to roll it out “imminently.”
“Why in this very moment have we yet to see a plan?” Horwath asks. #onpoli
Elliott says Ontario is rolling out some of its plan now...completing 40K tests now, says govt has increased testing in some regions with long lines.
We heard before from government that Ontario was releasing a fall plan at any moment; today the minister says it's actually being rolled out as we speak, citing increased testing #s. There's been no official plan or document released publicly. #onpoli
Read 8 tweets
@whatisacmio asked my opinion on the tweet thread below.

No surprise - it's the dreaded positivity measure(s).

I could not respond in just one tweet, so responding in a "short" thread.

1/

I do not think that any of these calculations is wrong, stupid, or fake data as is implied. They simply address different things.

All three of the positivity rates discussed in the thread are presented on my site, with the overall cumulative positivity rate as a reference.

2/
A criticism of the "ratio of new positives to newly tested people" is that it DELETES persons tested more than once.

But the "% positivity for new cases" does this as well. But it only deletes repeat positives - it keeps the repeat negatives in.

3/
Read 9 tweets
NEWS: Joe Biden entered September with nearly half-a-billion dollars in the bank — and $141 million more than President Trump.

Biden + joint DNC operations = $466 million
Trump + joint RNC operations = $325 million

nytimes.com/2020/09/20/us/…
The Trump reelection committee itself filed just moments ago (again, there is also RNC + joint ops, which will not file tonight):

Total August receipts: $61.7 million
Total spend: $61.2 million
Debts: 900k
Cash on hand: $121 million

nytimes.com/2020/09/20/us/…
NEW: The Biden campaign committee itself just filed:

Total August receipts: $212 million
Total spend: $130.3 million
Debts: $0
Cash on hand: $180.6 million

(Compare to Trump committee in above tweet.)
nytimes.com/2020/09/20/us/…
Read 5 tweets
Lots to discuss here. For the “gap filling” listen to @Darky999 Sunday night around 10ET. If you have questions PM me so Chris and I can try to address. This election and the motivations of each party just shifted even more drastically but there is TIME component that is huge
The death of RBG ensures that bases of both sides will be HIGHLY motivated to make sure that “their justice”gets appointed. While Roberts & on occasion Gorsuch will side with more liberal positions adding another conservative justice swings policy in USA for 30 years. BIG STAKES
4 intersecting issues:

1. Will there be true vote for SJC nom (other than a show vote) prior to election
2. Will they be able to pass a stimulus bill —knowing Ds won’t cave on national mail in voting procedures now
3. Continuing resolution(CR) by 9/30 or gov shutdown
4. Timing
Read 25 tweets
🚨YOUR GUIDE TO THE #FLORIDA #COVID19 DASHBOARD

📌Creating this as a reference for my site 👇

📌There's a lot going on & despite my best efforts, you may wonder why I've created some of the visualizations

📌This 🧵gives that insight

covid19florida.mystrikingly.com

1/
📌Because this will end up being a LONG THREAD, I will likely release it in pieces...

📌But the final 🧵 will be a good resource for understanding the 63 visualizations that currently exist on my site

📌Even if you only use one viz, I hope my site is of use to most of you!

2/ Image
CASES: #1
"Snapshot of trends"

📌Gives quick visual of trends in cases, testing, positivity, hospitalizations, and deaths

📌User can specify date range

📌Statewide look, would miss heterogeneity in situations across the state

3/ Image
Read 66 tweets
🚨 IMPORTANT UPDATE ON CURRENT #COVID19 HOSPITALIZATIONS IN #FLORIDA 🚨

This information comes directly from @AHCA_FL.

I submitted my questions through their media outreach, so I feel 100% comfortable with sharing.

Some of this is confirmatory, some points out problems.

1/
Q1. Do AHCA current hosp # include all adult and pediatric inpatient beds, or does this just include adults?

A. All beds regardless of the age of occupant

2/
Q2. There is no ICU tab specific to COVID (only to capacity), so do these numbers include either adult ICU hospitalizations, PICU hospitalizations, or both?

A. Both types of hospitalizations

3/
Read 11 tweets
"Steely Dan
"Women counter the recurring assessment that 'only men love Steely Dan'"

Everybody has an opinion on the subject, but does anybody have data? Surely streaming services or the like have the statistics on which bands are liked by which sexes. Are the #s published?
For example, my wife has excellent taste in music, but it's not at all my taste. She likes gal singers, I like loud guitars. Hence, the only albums we both owned were The Pretenders.
You can look up which movies men and women most differ on in ranking on IMDB:

unz.com/isteve/mens-an…

E.g., men like Paths of Glory, Das Boot, and Raging Bull, while women like Harry Potter, Pride & Prejudice, and Frozen:
Read 4 tweets
Tweet storm III is about company HQ'd in Salt Lake City and a CEO that accomplished something nearly impossible. The outcome changed the way contact lenses were sold in America.

👁👁👓📞🩺🏔 (1/x)
It was a fascinating journey and I'll tell you up front that there are some interesting parallels between this company and modern day rule breakers such as Uber.
It’s a long story so I’m going to break it up into two or three parts over the coming months. I’ll do my best to tell it fairly & accurately.
Read 47 tweets
1) Another set of FL #s from "Freeper" Ravi. Continues to look VERY good in FL:

"Only 3 (Seminole, Escambia, Miami-Dade) of the 67 counties do not update voter totals daily. Those 3 counties’ last update was August 31st.
2) Dem registration advantage is down to 178,896 from 238,457 at the end of July. August was a great month for Rs in all 3 of those counties that don’t update daily.
3) Assuming this pattern continued into September for those 3 counties, the Dem registration advantage as of today is probably less than 175,000 and might be closer 170,000."

4) My comment: If I'm not mistaken, the D advantage in FL in 2012 was close to 1 million.
Read 3 tweets
1) Lotta new followers so, just FYI.

I don't do polls. There are a couple of good ones, but I think this cycle because of the massive pending shortfall in student (18-24 year old voters) & because of the very real safety concerns by Trump voters ("shy voters") NO poll . . .
1) contd . . . is going to accurately capture what is happening.

2) I follow real, tangible #s, not polls which are stated intentions of what people might do in the future. And remember Dr. House: "everybody lies."

Instead I watch trends in special elections (ALL toward . . .
2) contd . . . the GOP since 2018 with the exception of one WI Supreme Court race; voter registrations (ALL in the GOP direction and I mean BIGLY in FL, NC, NM, NV, PA and slightly less so in IA and NH, but still in the GOP favor.) AZ briefly saw DemoKKKrats gain, knocking . . .
Read 7 tweets
EOIR is terrible: a thread. An IJ found that (1) the resetting of a hearing with a 21 day notice making it IMPOSSIBLE to comply with 15 day standing order requirements and prepare a case under completely new COVID-19 rules with new filing requirements,
(2) my explanation that I cannot prepare a case in 2 business days EVER to meet the 15 day filing deadline (also argued a due process violation), but particularly in this moment because of my daily involvement in my father's ongoing medical care for his recent paralyzation,
and (3) the current pandemic and the risks of exposure in court (including lack of info about the safety precautions EOIR is taking and whether they comply with CDC guidelines), all collectively to not be "good cause shown" for a continuance.
Read 9 tweets
You had me at crypto-jacking

7 Cyber Defendants, Including "Apt41" Actors
100 Victims Globally

APT41
Barium
Winnti
Wicked Panda
Wicked Spider
“facilitated the theft of source code, software code signing certificates, customer account data...”
justice.gov/opa/pr/seven-i…
Tiny Detail
I have <11 mins before my next work call
let’s do this
MEGA INSIDER THREAT CHENGDU 404 a network security.. of elite "white hat" hackers
South Korea
Japan
India
Taiwan
Hong Kong
Malaysia
Vietnam
India
Pakistan
Australia
UK
Chile
Indonesia
Singapore
Thailand https://www.justice.gov/opa...https://www.justice.gov/opa...https://www.justice.gov/opa...https://www.justice.gov/opa...
CHENGDU 404 pattern of illegal activity
identity theft
access device fraud
computer fraud
wire fraud
money laundering
👇🏻
-analyze exploit data obtained through hacking
-identifying additional targets
-providing actionable information
-maximizing the value of stolen data
BRB work https://www.justice.gov/opa...https://www.justice.gov/opa...https://www.justice.gov/opa...https://www.justice.gov/opa...
Read 9 tweets
Whether or not the results of the 779 tests between 9/7 & 9/13 are a representative sample of the student body depend on sampling procedures & data analysis techniques we're not privy to. Though given that KU's testing at this point seems... 1/

#ksed

www2.ljworld.com/news/ku/2020/s…
driven more by limitations in it's ability to do more testing as well as laboratory limitations in processing the results, then it's likely this isn't statistically representative. The 10.9% positivity rate may underestimate the % of students infected between 9/7 & 9/13. 2/ #ksed
Unless the testing by Watkins was designed to specifically provide a representative sample, it's test results likely overestimate student body infection rates. These are students coming in w/ specific symptoms or other concerns. So the infection rate between 9/7 &... 3/

#ksed
Read 15 tweets
Thank you
Thank you
Thank you

Thanks to all the listeners of #inthebubble today we sent a check for $19,000 to Project Ayuda in the Central Valley of California.

centralvalleycf.org/project-ayuda/
Let me tell you why.

Project Ayuda offers disaster relief payments to undocumented residents, many of them farm workers & their families.

Make no mistake. They are in this country to pick our crops & grow our food that we all take for granted. And they are dying in record #s.
COVID is ravaging these areas. And now the orange skies and unhealthy air is too. The nature of the work is ungodly heat, backbreaking manual labor & poor living conditions.

And the Central Valley, CA among our country’s biggest hot spots.
Read 5 tweets
Premier @fordnation is about to do an interview with @570NEWS (he was not in the House today for QP but has his daily avail at 1pm) #onpoli
Asked about rising case #s, Ford says his government has a "good solid plan," says healthcare/hospitals are ready (@AnthonyDaleOHA and others have expressed concern for rising numbers) #onpoli
Ford reiterates cases are not coming from bars and restaurants, it's parties - says in some cases it is allowed, but not worth it right now
Read 7 tweets
Cool. Let’s do this, then:

First, name the spokesperson who put out that statement.

Second, one verifiable statistic you could check is the number of MedPar Billings for hysterectomies from this facility against others w similar #s of women who have similar lengths of stay. Image
Or are you not sure the exact number of women whose uteruses were removed while in your care? That’s not a verifiable specific readily at hand for the good folks at the IHSC Medical Case Management Unit? That’s not something that’s considered a Significant Incident you’d report?
Finally, if you’d read the @ProjectSouth complaint, you’d see there were VERY specific numbers and timeframes that you should be able to check. So. What’s it gonna be?

Have you run an email search for #TheUterusCollector? That seems fairly easy? ImageImage
Read 3 tweets
This is great analysis. One tiny bit of nuance re: NYS and why you don't see a spike. Indoor bars aren't open downstate (NYC and surrounding) - they're outdoors. And at this point in NYC outdoor bars are required to serve food and are glorified outdoor restaurants keeping #s low.
Indoor dining is schedule to reopen in NYC on September 30th with 25% capacity.

I think it's a really dumb idea to time indoor dining reopening with the exact time kids are going back to school.
What his analysis makes plain is: inside, unmasked is dangerous. Outside is much safer.

In a better world we would pay restaurants to stay shut/only do take out. The push for indoor dining is because by October it's going to get too cold to comfortably eat outside
Read 3 tweets
The 2020 Trump app “is a crude approximation of a traditional news outlet,” featuring faux news anchors like Lara Trump & Kimberly Guilfoyle. It “enables users to stay fully sequestered within the fact-optional Trump universe.”
By ⁦@suehalpernVT⁩ 1/ newyorker.com/news/campaign-…
2/ “To access the Trump app, users must share their cell-phone #s w/ the campaign. ‘The most important...thing in politics is a cellphone #,’ Parscale told Reuters. ‘When we receive cellphone #s, it...allows to identify them across the databases. Who are they...everything.’”
3/ “Michael Marinaccio, the chief operating officer of Data Trust, a private Republican data company, said recently that ‘what’s new this year, or at least a sense of urgency, is getting as many cell-phone numbers as we can in the voter file data.’”
Read 4 tweets
With @ClemsonFB up over spouse's @WakeFB, I've decided to tweet some 'clarification' analysis of what I've seen about NC absentee by mail ballots & "rejection" rates among voters, especially Black/African Americans. There needs to be better understanding of this dynamic #ncpol
First, an explanation of process when a NC absentee by mail ballot is returned:

Envelope is inspected for voter signature AND 1 witness information: witness printed name, address, & signature

There can also be other reasons that are listed in 'return status' of the ballot:
ballot marked as spoiled (often by voter request, such as college student wanting ballot sent elsewhere than original address given); returned undeliverable; duplicate; ballot 'conflict'; ballot 'pending.' These reasons are given in the data found here: dl.ncsbe.gov/index.html?pre…
Read 18 tweets
Interesting thread on possible reasons for resurgence of cases in NY & Madrid.
Some useful observations but several key flaws.
Quick thread.
-Comparison would have been better for NYC & Madrid. Not sure why data from a whole state is being compared to a city. Maybe b/c @_MiguelHernan wants to claim seroprev is similar b/w 2 locations which is NOT true about NYC (25%) & Madrid (15%) but is for NYS & Madrid?
-@_MiguelHernan claims diff #s of contact tracers made a difference but our recent paper () shows this is unlikely to be true. If they had 200 tracers in early July this would be plenty to trace the <100 cases they had in July (cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa).
Read 10 tweets
1/ Did the Sturgis bike rally cause 266,796 new cases of COVID-19? Probably not. Lesson- Beware viral studies that confirm your pre-existing beliefs so satisfyingly. (Long) thread: slate.com/technology/202… @FutureTenseNow @EricTopol @slate @govkristinoem @DearPandemic #Sturgis
2/ Like most people working on COVID-19, I am of the strong belief that mass gatherings during a pandemic are a bad idea. When this paper came out, the huge figures immediately hit the "I Told you So!" button in my & many people’s brains. iza.org/publications/d…
3/ The first red flag is the huge number itself-it doesn't pass the sniff test.
Read 27 tweets
Membranous type Basal Cell Adenoma (BCA).
🧨 Morphologically identical to cutaneous cylindroma, hence aka dermal analogue tumor.
🧨 This is a unique morphologic subtype that one should be aware of.
Why? Read below. #ENTpath
#pathology #pathboards #S&L 1/3
🧨 Because this particular subtype can be multifocal.
🧨 This can be associated with Brooke Spiegler syndrome, a rare AD disease caused by mutation of CYLD gene on chr 16.
🧨 This has a higher rate of local recurrence (25%) than other subtypes. 2/3
🧨 And this has high propensity for transformation into a basal cell adenocarcinoma.
🔬 Islands of basaloid cells surrounded by eosinophilic hyaline material, jigsaw puzzle like pattern & peripheral palisading.
3/3 #S&L
Read 4 tweets

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