Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #s

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I know y'all are wondering what's going on with my "un-debut" and what happened. I have a long thread for y'all on #PredatoryPublishing and being careful on who gets to release your stories...

[A LONG THREAD 🧵]
When I signed my with Bound to Brew contract I was ECSTATIC! I felt like I finally "made it". I reached the arbitrary bench mark in publishing. I gained a publicist and an additional editor on my team. B2B was a small publisher but I wanted to give them a chance.
The call went very well. I laid out my goals for starting my career with this novel. I'm breaking into the fantasy genre with this book. The team was cool with my plans and wanted to help in any way they could. When the paperwork came in I had my editor...
Read 18 tweets
Today Joe Manchin is visiting the White House and Jill Biden is visiting a community college in Iowa, so it's as good a time as any to talk about one of the questions Congress is facing about free community college:

Why should community colleges be tuition-free for everyone?
On its surface, income testing free community college seems to make sense. Let's make the most of taxpayer dollars by targeting resources to low- and middle-income students.

But often that strategy doesn't work out and here's a few reasons why:
First, as anyone who has done a FAFSA verification (or sought any gov assistance) can tell you, the government is bad at determining who "deserves" aid.

This is esp. true for students whose earnings and tax status can change drastically year to year or even semester to semester
Read 8 tweets
For the Hill obsessed: this thread will run down all of Mideast-related amdts to the House FY22 NDAA posted on the Rules website as of 4:25pm on 9/15) (deadline was yesterday but amdts keep rolling in).

It’s a long thread (for which you should blame Congress, not me).
Category 1: Israel-related amendments
Amdt. 110: Offered by Biggs (R-AZ), “Expresses a sense of Congress about the importance of the U.S.-Israel relationship.”

amendments-rules.house.gov/amendments/BIG…
Read 91 tweets
0/ $AFRM CFO Michael Linford on $V: "You can't look to V & say V is a loser here: (i) We ride V rail for a meaningful number of our transactions, and (ii) We receive repayment for 45-50% of our transactions on debit card anyway so they are recapturing that"
1/ "The networks are critical partners for us today. The virtual card product runs on $V, all that virtual card revenue is our cut of a V transaction."

The $AFRM network isn't exclusively reliant on theirs nor is it independent of theirs.
2/ On their view of underwriting. They are focused on their Variable Profit # (Rev-Transaction Cost); they can handle a lot more losses if there's more revenue & vice-versa. "$PTON users are generally higher credit quality but don't confuse credit with income as it's not as high
Read 11 tweets
This afternoon @tdsb Planning & Priorities Committee begins at 4:30 Agenda - Staff Report on Indigenous Land-Based Learning, Staff Report on Implementation of a Mandatory Vaccination Procedure & Staff Update on Return to School - Watch here tdsb.on.ca/stream/boardme… Will live tweet
The "Implementation of a Mandatory Vaccine Procedure" is now posted with the agenda for today's @tdsb P & P - look forward to the staff presentation tdsb.on.ca/Leadership/Boa…
Meeting begins with @OPSBA Director's Report - highlights Vaccination advocacy, #AboveandBeyond social media campaign aboveandbeyondontario.ca; Transitioning from COVID Experience and student survey opsba.org/wp-content/upl… and more...
Read 46 tweets
W, At some point you have to stretch your boundaries.

There is nothing which says 8.3 on Table ES1. I understand your arithmetic now. You are calculating how much a square meter of area generates 24/7/365, even in the middle of the night. Image
I have never met anyone who looks at it that way.

If you do that, and you say 3.4 acres will create 1GWh in a year, then you need 10.2mm acres which is 41,369.83sqkm. Not 80k.

As shown before, starting at 3.8-4.0PWh/yr growing at 0.95%p.a. is 5PWh/yr so 30k sqkm
But that isn’t the way it works either.

NREL’s 2012 era database is full of small solar projects, many of which are low pack density b/c of natural obstacles on old tech.

If US wants to build 2000+ new Solar Star farms, in the next 28yrs, I promise they will use post-2012
Read 7 tweets
THREAD: In a few min (2 pm Eastern) I'll live tweet our status conference in #Chakrabarti, our lawsuit challenging USCIS' waste of employment-based visa numbers and failure to timely adjudicate green card applications #EBAOS. There is no public dial-in for this one.
2/What's this call about? We requested a preliminary injunction: immediate order for USCIS to decide cases and/or reserve visas. USCIS opposes, wants the case split up & sent to dozens of states. We don't know what the judge will focus on but @jeffjoseph is ready for anything!
3/ Will we be allowed to speak this time? As Jeff shared in last night's Youtube video (), if the judge repeats last week's stunning refusal to hear plaintiffs counsel, we'll be requesting that he give the case to someone else who can be impartial.
Read 53 tweets
Travis County Case Dismissals - *2021
Page 2
Includes:
51 Evading Arrest w Vehicle
40 Injury child/elderly/ disabled w int bodily injury

Obtained through a FOIA request from Travis Co DA Image
Travis County Case Dismissals - *2021
Page 3
Includes:
2 Murder
2 Manslaughter

Obtained through a FOIA request from Travis Co DA Image
Read 7 tweets
0/ We've seen a lot of activity around the private market "exchange" race w/ $NDAQ spinning out NPM (alongside $SIVB, $C, $GS, & $MS) @cartainc launching CartaX, the @Forge_Global / @sharespost merger, etc

Forge is going public providing the first glimpse at #s in the ecosystem
1/ They quote $10B in volume inception to date across 19,000 trades (avg trade size of $526K) with 639 institutions, 123K accredited investors & ~399K registered users.

As of June they did $3.0B LTM, with $1.8B in '20 & $1.7B in '19 with a net take rate of 3.1% LTM
2/ They provide some good data about the private market landscape:
-Median age of tech co at IPO 4 years in '99 to 12 in '20
-Median valuation up from $493M in '99 to $4.3B in '20
-There are 762 "unicorns" with $2.4T in "market cap"
-Private market AuM is now at $13T
Read 8 tweets
A thread on current numbers, and some predictions: 1/
Some of you who have followed me a long time might remember these daily tweets, using case rates of hosp, ICU and deaths to figure out what resulting severe outcomes might be from a single day's case #. 2/
It was remarkably accurate. Unfortunately. And hopefully put into context the wall of data we are confronted with, daily. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Fri Sept 10th. 1/
Cases/d 1498, a 5% incr over last Thurs's 1426. 7d Ave 1302, a 13% incr over last week's 1152. Positivity 10.93 %(Last Thus 11.51%). While this flattening of both curves is reassuring, I'm worried we won't be actually bending the curve without real public health measures. 2/
Delta: Sept 2nd 1256/1426=88% of days cases. Sept 3rd 1156/1312=88%. Sept 4th 1286/1446=89%. Today AB Health announced the end to routine screening for VoCs, so there will be limited information on this going forward. 3/
Read 11 tweets
If @KnoxSchools COVID-19 numbers are true, then private/home school kids have an infection rate ~3,129.80% higher than public school kids. This is blatantly unbelievable from statistical and common sense perspectives. @usedgov and @CivilRights should investigate.
Glad to see that KCS admitted their inaccurate #s. How do we trust folks in a pandemic when they aren’t transparent with data. A whole lot of folks were using the bad faith data posted by KCS to downplay the situation. bit.ly/3trcmo9
If they only have a limited portion of the data, that needs to be noted. Educated people should know better than to mislead the public. They have already lost the public trust with no mitigation-now they have taken it further.
Read 4 tweets
Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Tues Sept 7th. 1/
Cases/d Fri 1336 up 8.9% from last Fri's 1227. Sat 1457 up 52.9% from 953. Sun 825 down 4.6% from 865. Mon 1309 up 41.5% from 925. 7 day ave 1292 up 23.8% wk over wk (1044). doubling time 16.5 d (last wk hovering around 14d) 2/ ImageImage
doubling time 16.5 d . Positivity Fri 12.87% (last week 10.71%), Sat 11.87% (10.21%) Sun 11.09% (10.50%) Mon 12.64% (12.61%). 3/ Image
Read 11 tweets
Tuesday #covid19ab brief (Fri-Mon #s):
• 1336, 1457, 825, 1309 new cases (-6, -7, -5, -6 to prev days)
• 7 day trend is now 1484
• +87 hospitalizations from Fri (515 to 602)
• +1,991 active cases to 15,486
• 17 new deaths

aryntoombs.github.io/brief/
30 day waterfall chart of #covid19ab trends, and whiskers for actual daily cases. And as indicated last Friday the recalculation removed the flattening once the entire week's data was available. Image
1786 additional variant cases in Alberta:
• 1 B.1.117 #alpha
• 1785 B.1.617 #delta ImageImage
Read 5 tweets
9/7 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

1) PCR Pos% rate at 13.64%
2) Cases plummet - Labor Day (LD)
3) Hospitalizations decline. Some LD but trends are lower - period
3) Fatality breakdown on 128 fatalities - LD. Prepare for big #s rest of week

1/n
.
9/7 Indicators

* PCR Pos% at 13.64. Looks great
* 14DMA Case Rate of Decline at 5.6%
* Hospitalizations Rate of Decline at 0.5%
* Rt at 0.85
* No testing update today, see tweet from earlier today
* Its ovah, even with Labor Day

2/n
. ImageImageImage
9/7 Cases

* 6.0K Cases vs 22.7K last Tues
* Case 7DMA WoW declines 10%
* Peak is 9/5
* Labor Day reporting. Tomorrow should be a big number of cases reported. Will be watching to see if 7DMA can recover from this far a drop to set new peak. Its a tough week of comps

3/n
. Image
Read 9 tweets
Ok you asked for it. Bad news first.

We need to talk about the children.
Disclaimer: these are purely my observations as an epidemiologist based on the data.

I’m not engaging in a moral or ethical debate. It is not my job to decide policy and also, I don’t have the headspace for it. So please, don’t go there.
First, this is England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 only - that’s my patch & I’m sticking to it.

So you may have noticed cases are going up again: 🦠 31,726

The highest daily total since 23 July.
Read 18 tweets
🚨Fidelity Predicts #Bitcoin Price In 5, 10, 15 years!

But more important than "where" the price goes is "how" it gets there, what are the key drivers and indicators, what is the important data to watch as this thesis plays out

A Thread 👇
1/ First about @Fidelity, one of the largest investment firms w/ over 26m customers, $6.5T in customer assets, and $2.4T global AUM. They have been mining Bitcoin since 2017, started Digital Assets in 2018, Investing in BTC companies in 2020, and providing BTC loans in 2021
2/ Before looking at price, lets understand it better. Always about SUPPLY v DEMAND

An S Curve helps us understand the adoption cycle or time frame. The rule is the time it takes to get to 10% adoption is the time it takes to go from 10%-90% adoption. Should see 90% by 2029
Read 16 tweets
Watching the @djusd Board Meeting right now wit a #COVID19 update from Laura Juanitas and Dr. Aimee Sisson
95% of staff vaccinated and 80% of secondary students vaccinated
21 students with COVID19 since school started
Read 55 tweets
THREAD: I'll be live-tweeting Judge Messitte's hearing in the Federal District Court of MD, for our #Chakrabarti case challenging delays on EB AOS / visa number wastage, along with others suing USCIS. Starts at 11 eastern. Dial-in info below.
2/ What is this hearing about? USCIS HQ is in Maryland, and federal judges there noticed a bunch of individual suits against USCIS for processing delays, in addition to our large #Chakrabarti suit challenging delays in EB AOS & wasting visa number.
3/ We have requested a preliminary injunction, asking the judge to order USCIS to adjudicate plaintiffs' green cards by the end of the FY and/or hold over numbers into FY22 to avoid huge waste of employment green cards & unnecessary increase in the backlog for Indians & Chinese.
Read 105 tweets
0/ The $TOST S1 is showing the way for other Vertical SaaS companies focused on embedded payments.

Looking at revenue & gross profit contribution payments is actually the lion share today, with subscription revenue of ~10%, while hardware & prof services are loss leaders re: GP
1/ Their net take rate for 1H21 is 55bps (up from 48bps in 1H20); this despite gross take rate down slightly.

This isn't unique to $TOST & we've seen a similar phenomenon with $SQ's #s showing take rates trend higher YoY & vs. '19 w/ more debit usage & online / CNP transactions
2/ Despite the pandemic if we look at their GPV on a quarterly basis its largely grown QoQ every Q except for 1Q & 2Q20.

We're also seeing GPV / ARR per location trend higher.
Read 11 tweets
We’ve now got the 3 main national parties’ climate platforms. (Greens haven’t got much on website, so will go with a 8/9 press release here and there.) How do they compare? Great that lots of detail, so 🧵will be long. Still can’t promise to cover everything. #cdnpoli #elxn44 /1
Cutting to the chase, Cons plan is better than in 2019, but Lib and NDP both promise much more ambitious policies and less support for fossil fuels. NDP builds on Lib initiatives, w tweaks, some important (fossil fuel subsidies). There’s a table to compare at end of 🧵! /2
TARGETS: Libs submitted new target of 40-45% below 2005 by 2030. Cons said they’ll meet “Canada’s Paris commitment” but that’s original -30% target. #ParisAgreement doesn't allow backtracking, so would mean going to #COP26 with a stated intention of non-compliance. NDP -50%. /3
Read 14 tweets
0/ With the $AMZN partnership $AFRM now works w/ AMZN $SHOP & $WMT; the 3 most important eCommerce platforms in the US.

AMZN already has their own installment programs (30-35% of 1st party units) & a BNPL-esque offering w/ the store card so they must buy into > GMV & higher AOV
1/ AMZN is the poster platform for high conversion rates due to Prime, 1 click checkout, stored credentials, etc... so this is another validation of BNPL as a payment method.

This allows AMZN to offer AFRM as a payment option across a wider range of SKUs
2/ AMZN currently partners with $JPM & $SYF on private-label cards (5% back on AMZN & Whole Foods).

Estimates are that this accounts for ~$25B of spending on AMZN.

$SYF has expertise in non-prime underwriting but has really been behind on their BNPL suite.
Read 7 tweets
Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Fri Aug 27th. As I've been away, I've missed the last few days. I think it'd be too depressing to play catch up, so I'll just stick with giving you today's numbers. 1/
Yest cases 1183/d, a 57% incr over last Thurs 753. 7 day ave now 853 a 46% incr over last wk's 583. doubling time now 14 d. At this point in the 2nd wave our doubling time was 22d, so this is a much steeper, sustained climb. 2/
Positivity 10.26%, up from last week's 8.49%. persistent 2% increase week over week. An incredible 22.66% in the North, a truly horrific and astounding number. 3/
Read 15 tweets

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