@oldnorthstpol Comparison of 2018’s first ‘early voting’ day by voter party registration to the cumulative daily total trendlines in 2010 (which had 17 days of early voting) & 2014 (which had 10 days of EV):
1) Just so you all understand what I do, for the one-millionth time, I don't do polls.
Yes, from time to time I will post one for those of you who do. But we're WAY past polls now because we have actual NUMBERS.
2) A poll is a sample of opinions that cost nothing to give.
3) For example, before a horse race you can poll everyone---including jockeys (who may or may not know something), owners, bettors, whomever. But it's just an opinion.
Moreover, you have to know that in a political poll you have the correct sample (most absolutely do not).
4) The sample anymore is almost impossible to get, and certainly you cannot get it by phone only and you cannot get it by "self-reporting." So far, only @PPDNews and Trafalgar have a track record of really getting "likely" voters in the proper sample sizes.
I was taught a sanitized version of American wildlife management/conservation. it's only through self-study/listening that I learned any of this. By not acknowledging the violence that occurred in the US w/ regards to wildlife/resources we do our students a disservice #bloodparks
look at the news for a week & you hear plenty of news about how there's a biodiversity crisis. we're losing species at a v high rate. we're in the sixth mass extinction.
we blame proximate causes..."poaching", recent deforestation, but that's not where it started. #bloodparks
1/ Been talking about my vision for a systematic VC fund. Think Renaissance Technologies in the private markets. Here is initial strawman of how it could work. Flow her is industry->tech->outreach->validation-> negotiation->close->post close.
Don’t have all the answers.
2/ Starts w/ stage & industry. Cant have too much competition (not tech b/c 1k vc firms), must have large mkt, enough data (not seed stage), biz models largely standardized so you can generalize training data.
CPG perfect. $15T industry few active VCs.
3/ Need small Information Advantage (IA) + Large Sample (N). IA won't be perfect so must spread out over large population. Said differently- predictions won't be guaranteed, so need to make a lot of bets to capture the value of the IA.
Recently released Tax Base stats gives new insight into challenges facing @jcps_district & @JC_Gov wrt School Funding. Important for public & elected (who need public support) 2 address challenges-Similar 2 #JerseyCity's Reval, School Funding Crisis=quantifiable & foreseeable 1/n
Basically what this report tells us is that Amnesty got some numbers from Border Patrol that state that in the heightened period of family separation/zero tolerance 6 THOUSAND family units were separated. Why this # is significant & scary follow below #FamiliesBelongTogether 2/
As we all know - the ONLY PRESSURED REUNIFICATIONS that have happened since zero-tolerance have been driven by the @ACLU's lawsuit against the government, but the "class" (as in the individuals eligible for relief from that lawsuit pressure) is limited to parents. 3/
1/ Spent some time looking at crypto exchange trading volumes last night.
Here are some gems highlighting the actual liquidity in the $12b of reported 24h volume. coinmarketcap.com/currencies/vol…
2/ BTC leads the crypto market in both total valuation & liquidity. 31% of the daily volume was BTC trading.
3/ The leading exchanges & pairs are however perhaps not as friendly looking as an institution or regulator might hope. 4 of the top 10 pairs were with USDT (Tether), the #3 was Dash on ZB, & many of the top 10 exchanges are not well known (or are seen as ?able).
Richard Pinedo was charged with selling bank account #s that allegedly helped Russians engaged in election interference evade PayPal security measures (no allegation Pinedo knew that). He'll serve six months in prison, followed by six months home detention buzzfeednews.com/article/zoetil…
Govt did not formally ask for a lower sentence b/c the limits of Mueller's authority meant they didn't act on certain info Pinedo provided (wouldn't say if they'd referred it to a US atty's office). Judge questioned if Pinedo was prejudiced because of that buzzfeednews.com/article/zoetil…
Hello on this unseasonably warm October morning from the federal courthouse in DC, where Richard Pinedo — the California man who pleaded guilty in connection with Mueller's Russian troll farm case — is due for sentencing. Refresher: buzzfeednews.com/article/chrisg…
Pinedo pleaded guilty to selling bank account #s set up under other people's names so his customers could get around PayPal security features. Prosecutors allege some of his customers were Russians using PayPal to finance election interferece (no allegation that Pinedo knew that)
PInedo is asking for no jail time — in his sentencing memo, his lawyer wrote that Pinedo had cooperated with the special counsel's office, and feared for his safety. Document: assets.documentcloud.org/documents/4946…
I want to highlight a few things about this article.
1. First, kudos to the writers for highlighting an issue that all of us #gunviolence researchers bemoan: that there are NO GOOD SOURCES OF DATA on non-fatal gun injuries. As the article reports, even the CDC admits that its data on #gunviolence injuries are unreliable.
2. Please note that this issue is not unique to #gunviolence non-fatal injuries. It’s also observed for other types of injuries (like drownings).
It’s because of the way that the CDC is forced to collect non-fatal-injury data.
1/ Thread containing the reasons why I believe that Bitfinex is completely insolvent.
2/ Customers have noted on the subreddit:
A) Trouble accessing the exchange
B) SOME issues withdrawing/depositing crypto
C) Funding autorenew shifted irrevocably to 'on'
D) Zero response from Bitfinex customer service reps
E) No successful fiat withdrawals in a month
3/ Here's the official link to see all of the posts on Bitfinex's Reddit (INCLUDING the deleted ones):
All you have to do to see deleted posts on Reddit is replace the 'R' in Reddit with a 'C' for any subreddit address and you'll see deleted posts
#Q's posts are monitored by both #Patriots & the #DeepState, so Q cannot telegraph every move. However, there's seems to be a clock in place, w/post numbers essentially acting as a countdown to 2400...midnight for the #cabal...w/a planned #RedOctober take down.
#RedOctober has clearly referenced a timeline where the coordinated arrests will occur this month, prior to the 2018 election.
"Red October" was first referenced on 11/20/17 as "The Hunt for Red October."
"Red October" has appeared 20 times in #Q's posts.
The reference to "The Hunt for Red October" was thought to have many meanings:
- Dealing w/a rogue nuclear sub (think Hawaii)
- Cyberespionage malware
- The plan culmination in the plan in October 2018 (#RedOctober)
Some of what we’ve learned: The final ‘i’ dotted, the last ‘t’ crossed, that cemented the NAFTA deal Sunday night was Lighthizer, Freeland, and their teams working out a tariff threshold for Canadian autos so high that it basically is more symbolic than real. 1/
2/ You’ve perhaps seen the details about no-auto-tariffs-ever unless Canada exports 44% more cars to the US? Apparently it goes beyond that — adjustments include switching to the more generous (NAICS) import coding system. Basically, Canada isn’t hitting these #s anytime soon
3/ Our reporting shows two distinct narratives on How The Deal Went Down. They’re not necessarily mutually exclusive. But in the 🇺🇸 gov’t telling: “We scared Canada with tariffs, they gave us dairy, we got a deal.” In the 🇨🇦 govt telling: “Um, we offered the dairy thing weeks
2/ With so much going on, you can expect a pretty fire show. I anticipate we'll get into:
+Market manipulation in all its beautiful forms
+Bitmain IPO #s and interpretation
+Viral dynamics and crypto-native equity
and maybe...the Tether Target?
3/ Big thanks to all the podcasters, creators and curators out there who produce so much great thinking. Special ups to @theonevortex whose weekly The Bitcoin News Show was a definite inspiration. youtube.com/channel/UCHFL9…
1/ Long Reads Sunday #14. Daaaamn crypto, you really went for it. This was a week full of big announcements, market manipulation, regulatory enforcement, and a dash of various other assorted intrigue. Strap in, folks, it’s long reads time.
2/ One LRS note. Last week I announced that we’re taking this conversation off Twitter and into the realm of live. Well, it’s happening this MONDAY ~7pm EST. My first guest co-host will be @Travis_Kling and I couldn’t be more excited. More guests TBA soon. youtube.com/channel/UCMKxY…
3/ Little has gotten our big-little industry yapping like the Bitmain IPO. For weeks, the convo has been intrigue w BCH, but with the IPO filing, @katherineykwu@MessariCrypto hulked out & summarized all the numbers.
1/Thread - a snapshot of current polling in midst of #Kavanaugh fight. Using @FiveThirtyEight over last few weeks Trump's favs improved a bit, now 41.5/52.8 but the generic has worsened for the Rs, now stands at 49.6/40.9. Both these results suggest a very good year for the Ds.
2/My take is Rs now have a very low ceiling across the country. Of 45 top Gov/Senate/House battlegrounds w/recent polls Rs over 50% in only 4 or 5 (not incl TX Sen or AZ Gov); and have no lead outside margin of error in any Gov or Sen battleground. realclearpolitics.com
3/Rs not leading in governor's races in FL, GA, OH, PA, MI, WI, IA and NV - all critical 2020 battlegrounds. Could end up winning some but GOP can't be happy here.
Earlier this week, @CassSunstein beat the extremely well-beaten drum about academia's partisan imbalance. Suggesting it may be due to discrimination, he worries about the impact of it all on students and faculty research.
Not good, but there are three problems with this data: 1) It's just soc/humanities; 2) Evidence suggests disciplinary orgs skew left relative to rest of the academy; and 3) Membership in orgs skew toward elite/R1 institutions.