Thread by @Uncrewed

Back at it with State Legislative Campaign Fundraising, we're finishing off Minnesota tonight with the State House! Let's get to it!

#HD5A:

John Persell (DFL, Inc)- RAISED: $13,658 ON HAND: $20,295
Matt Bliss (R)- RAISED: $15,256 ON HAND: $19,023

@CNalysis Rating: Tilt DFL

This Bemidji-area district went to Trump by 12 and Walz by 1 and featured one of Minnesota's closest State House elections in 2018. Persell won by 8 votes in 2018 and it's shaping up to be another close one in 2020!

#HD5B:

Joe Abeyta (DFL)- RAISED: $9,374 ON HAND: $8,547
Spencer Igo (R)- RAISED: $16,332 ON HAND: $11,545

@CNalysis Rating: Lean R

This Trump+21/Jeff Johnson+7 district in the Grand Rapids area was only won by the Republicans by 4 in 2018 and with the seat open this year, Democrats sense some opportunity. However, Republicans do lead in the fundraising department

#HD14A:

Tami Calhoun (DFL)- RAISED: $12,280 ON HAND: $10,277
Tama Theis (R, Inc)- RAISED: $4,155 ON HAND: $11,944

@CNalysis Rating: Lean R

This Trump+11/Johnson+2 district in St. Cloud was another close one in 2018. Theis only won by 4 in 2018, is getting out-raised here, and only has a small cash-on-hand advantage.

#HD19A:

Jeff Brand (DFL, Inc)- RAISED: $12,520 ON HAND: $22,524
Susan Akland (R)- RAISED: $27,700 ON HAND: $19,044

@CNalysis Rating: Likely DFL

This Nicollet County-area district went for Trump by 4 and Tim Walz by 18 points! Walz had home-field advantage essentially, but that underscores the fact that Democrats still have a solid hold on this district downballot and Brand is no different.

#HD25A:

Kim Hicks (DFL)- RAISED: $5,288 ON HAND: $4,978
Duane Quam (R, Inc)- RAISED: $2,117 ON HAND: $3,561

@CNalysis Rating: Likely R

This Trump+16/Johnson+3 district in the northern Rochester suburbs doesn't seem like a big flip opportunity for the DFL, but Kim Hicks is out-raising Duane Quam here in this (for now) small-dollar race.

#HD25B:

Liz Boldon (DFL)- RAISED: $27,221 ON HAND: $27,221
Kenneth Bush (R)- RAISED: $4,425 ON HAND: $3,801

@CNalysis Rating: Likely DFL

This Clinton+10/Walz+20 district in northern Rochester is really only on the board because it's an open district. Boldon is doing her best to push it off the board though!

#HD26B:

Randy Brock (DFL)- RAISED: $15,960 ON HAND: $13,945
Nels Pierson (R, Inc)- RAISED: $1,990 ON HAND: $5,138

@CNalysis Rating: Lean R

This Trump+14.5/Johnson+3 district in the southern Rochester suburbs seems somewhat similar to HD-25A, but the DFL'er here (Randy Brock) raised about 15 times as much as the incumbent R and has almost triple the cash-on-hand.

#HD27B:

Jeanne Poppe (DFL, Inc)- RAISED: $9,920 ON HAND: $13,452
Patricia Mueller (R)- RAISED: $8,659 ON HAND: $9,862

@CNalysis Rating: Likely DFL

This Mower County-area district went to Trump by 9 and Walz by 8 points. Poppe should be fine here though, but the fundraising is kinda close

#HD33B:

Kelly Morrison (DFL, Inc)- RAISED: $66,442 ON HAND: $80,456

Andrew Myers (R)- RAISED: $20,544 ON HAND: $14,719
Marianne Stebbins (R)- RAISED: $15,821 ON HAND: $9,320

@CNalysis Rating: Tilt DFL

This Clinton+0.5/Walz+0.2 district in the western Minneapolis suburbs really is one of the state's biggest battlegrounds. Morrison appears to have an edge based on the fundraising though

#HD34B:

Kristin Bahner (DFL, Inc)- RAISED: $20,306 ON HAND: $31,471
Dori Trossen (R)- RAISED: $6,501 ON HAND: $2,891

@CNalysis Rating: Likely DFL

This Clinton+4/Walz+8 district in Maple Grove was flipped blue by Bahner by 5 in 2018 and she seems to be a very good position to win again this year.

#HD35A:

Mike Erickson (DFL)- RAISED: $14,127 ON HAND: $5,055
John Heinrich (R, Inc)- RAISED: $8,095 ON HAND: $11,054

@CNalysis Rating: Likely R

This Trump+16/Johnson+5 district in the Anoka area is pretty clearly a reach district for the DFL in their quest to expand their House majority, but Erickson out-raising Heinrich has to be good news for them.

#HD36A:

Zack Stephenson (DFL, Inc)- RAISED: $13,084 ON HAND: $62,585
Bill Maresh (R)- RAISED: $6,507 ON HAND: $6,155

@CNalysis Rating: Lean DFL

This Trump+3/Walz+5 district in the Champlin area did only flip blue by 5 points in 2018, but Stephenson appears to have somewhat entrenched himself here, at least in regards to fundraising.

#HD37B:

Amir Malik (DFL)- RAISED: $22,344 ON HAND: $55,168
Nolan West (R, Inc)- RAISED: $8,470 ON HAND: $18,435

@CNalysis Rating: Tilt DFL (FLIP)

This Blaine-area district went to Trump by 4 and Walz by 4.5 points. West only beat Malik by about 200 votes in 2018 and Malik is handily out-raising him here, hence the Tilt DFL rating!

#HD38A:

Kris Fredrick (DFL)- RAISED: $20,370 ON HAND: $15,376

Kelly Gunderson (R)- N/A
Doug Malsom (R)- RAISED: $4,855 ON HAND: $2,198
Donald Raleigh (R)- RAISED: $19,100 ON HAND: $12,416

@CNalysis Rating: Likely R

This Trump+11/Johnson+3 district in the Lino Lakes Area did vote Republican by 10 in 2018, but the seat's open now and Kris Fredrick is putting up some impressive numbers compared to the other Republicans.

#HD38B:

Ami Wazlawik (DFL, Inc)- RAISED: $24,172 ON HAND: $44,419
Elliott Engen (R)- RAISED: $20,498 ON HAND: $18,270

@CNalysis Rating: Lean DFL

This White Bear Lake-area district went to Trump by 1 and Walz by 5 points. Wazlawik flipped this seat blue by about 400 votes in 2018 and appears to be in a pretty decent position to win re-election this year.

#HD39B:

Shelly Christensen (DFL, Inc)- RAISED: $16,329 ON HAND: $40,327
Joe Garofalo (R)- RAISED: $15,472 ON HAND: $10,023

@CNalysis Rating: Lean DFL

This Trump+0.3/Walz+4 district in central Washington County was the site of another super close election in 2018 (Christensen only flipped it blue by 137 votes!), but Christensen seems to be in a better position this time around.

#HD44A:

Ginny Klevorn (DFL, Inc)- RAISED: $27,790 ON HAND: $75,517
Perry Nouis (R)- RAISED: $7,175 ON HAND: $6,380

@CNalysis Rating: Likely DFL

Another R -> DFL 2018 flip, this time it's a Clinton+14/Walz+13 district in the Plymouth area. Klevorn won this seat by 8 in 2018 and if fundraising is anything to go by, she's in for a bigger win this time around.

#HD47B:

Dan Kessler (DFL)- RAISED: $18,607 ON HAND: $25,056
Greg Boe (R, Inc)- RAISED: $6,255 ON HAND: $12,687

@CNalysis Rating: Toss-Up

This Trump+3/Johnson+0.2 district in the Chaska area is a district that's kinda stubbornly remaining Republican even though it's a suburban district. Boe only won it by 120 votes in 2018 too, so Kessler out-raising him here ain't that good for him.

#HD48B:

Carlie Kotyza-Witthuhn (DFL, Inc)- RAISED: $14,594 ON HAND: $28,821
Holly Link (R)- RAISED: $18,400 ON HAND: $14,816

@CNalysis Rating: Tilt DFL

This Eden Prairie-based district went to Clinton by 13 and Walz by 13. Link is a very strong candidate, but Kotyza-Witthuhn did manage to flip this district in 2018. Suburban polarization may make this district bluer too!

#HD52B:

Ruth Richardson (DFL, Inc)- RAISED: $10,632 ON HAND: $23,724
Cynthia Lonnquist (R)- RAISED: $3,570 ON HAND: $3,347

@CNalysis Rating: Likely DFL

This Clinton+8/Walz+13 district in Inver Grove Heights was flipped blue by Richardson in 2018 by about 1,500 votes. She appears to be in a somehow better position this year, so she should increase her winning margin.

#HD53B:

Steve Sandell (DFL, Inc)- RAISED: $10,382 ON HAND: $2,320
Kelly Jahner-Byrne (R)- RAISED: $12,090 ON HAND: $15,833

@CNalysis Rating: Lean DFL

Sandell flipped this Clinton+9/Walz+10 district in Woodbury blue in 2018. He faces a somewhat well-funded challenger in Kelly Jahner-Byrne this year and if this fundraising disparity keeps up, this might be one to look at.

#HD54A:

Anne Claflin (DFL, Inc)- RAISED: $12,435 ON HAND: $19,368
Keith Franke (R)- RAISED: $3,302 ON HAND: $9,239

@CNalysis Rating: Lean DFL

This is a rematch of Claflin and Franke's 2018 battle, which ended with Calflin winning in this Clinton+3/Walz+15 district in the Cottage Grove area. Claflin is out-pacing the former State Rep in fundraising and this district might be getting bluer on the Presidential level.

#HD54B:

Kelsey Waits (DFL)- RAISED: $29,064 ON HAND: $39,787
Tony Jurgens (R, Inc)- RAISED: $1,275 ON HAND: $10,552

@CNalysis Rating: Toss-Up

This Trump+6/Walz+3.5 district in the Hastings area was very close in 2018. Jurgens only won by 422 votes and is getting lapped in fundraising by Waits. If this area gets bluer on the Prez level, this could be ballgame for Jurgens.

#HD55A:

Brad Tabke (DFL, Inc)- RAISED: $16,990 ON HAND: $28,421

Bob Loonan (R)- RAISED: $10,390 ON HAND: $12,759
Erik Mortensen (R)- RAISED: $13,367 ON HAND: $11,002

@CNalysis Rating: Tilt DFL

This Trump+4/Walz+4 district in Shakopee features one of the most interesting Republican primaries in the State House. Former State Rep Bob Loonan is looking to get his job back, but he has to face Erik Mortensen first, who beat him in the 2018 primary and then lost in Nov.

#HD56A:

Jessica Hanson (DFL)- RAISED: $14,448 ON HAND: $17,779

Pam Myhra (R)- RAISED: $18,944 ON HAND: $19,339
Basil Martin (R)- N/A

@CNalysis Rating: Tilt DFL

This open D-held seat in the Savage area went to Clinton by 3 and Walz by 8. Jessica Hanson is raising some decent money, but Republicans got a really good recruit in former State Rep/2018 State Auditor nominee Pam Myhra.

Definitely one of the Chamber's premier battlegrounds!

#HD56B:

Kaela Berg (DFL)- RAISED: $20,681 ON HAND: $25,513
Roz Peterson (R)- RAISED: $25,465 ON HAND: $27,939

@CNalysis Rating: Tilt DFL

This Burnsville-area district went to Clinton by 5 and Walz by 10. It's open this year and the fundraising is close, but if Burnsville continues to trend blue, Berg should win.

#HD57B:

John Huot (DFL, Inc)- RAISED: $12,524 ON HAND: $19,547
Sandra Jimenez (R)- RAISED: $4,795 ON HAND: $3,981

@CNalysis Rating: Lean DFL

This Clinton+4/Walz+8 district in the Rosemount area flipped blue by about 800 votes in 2018. Huot was the winner of that race and appears to be on his way to an even bigger win this time around.

And finally...

#HD58A:

Erin Preese (DFL)- RAISED: $20,618 ON HAND: $35,181
John Koznick (R, Inc)- RAISED: $7,715 ON HAND: $39,059

@CNalysis Rating: Likely R

This Lakeville-based district went to Trump by 11.5 and Johnson by 4. It also overlaps with the key #SD58 Senate district, so it's doubly important there. Preese is raising some good money though, so it's definitely one to keep an eye on.

And that's it for tonight! I'll be back tomorrow to cover Tennessee, but until then stay excellent!

Also be sure to check out us good folks at @CNalysis and please consider donating to us to keep analysis like this coming!

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