A hugely important day today in the Middle East. And I dare say an important day for Jared Kushner, who was widely reported to be at odds with Amb Friedman on the prioritization of regional peace vs annexation (application or sovereignty).
Setting US policy is about choices. This was the right choice in my view. And speaking of policy: today was a a clear indication that the very threat of annexation (not to mention the decisions on Golan and Jerusalem) was important leverage. Maybe the experts were wrong...
I seem to recall a number of very serious people on Twitter saying unserious things about how US recognition of Jerusalem and Golan would be tantamount to diplomatic arson. Whoops. I’m sure someone is already busy collecting those.
Meantime, keep an eye out for moves by Bahrain, Sudan, maybe even outliers like Morocco. I’d be surprised if we didn’t see similar moves by other countries in the Saudi orbit. Saudi will be the most tentative, of course. But it will watch the reaction at home amongst its allies.
One last thought: UAE may have made history today. But it also likely salvaged the peace between Israel and Jordan, which was very tense because of annexation. The relationship is still likely to be rocky. But the UAE just removed the most significant irritant.
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