🧵Having reflected upon Biden’s arms embargo on Israel, I can share the following observations:

Biden is desperate to prevent a wider war.

I believe he is not as concerned about Rafah as he is about Iran, Hezbollah and the Houthis. When Israel moves in to finish off Hamas, Iran and its proxies will unleash on Israel and probably the US.

In other words, rather than the US gaining leverage on Tehran and its proxies, Tehran has gained leverage over the White House.

Biden has never been a profile in courage…

🧵Campus protest thread here.

I’ve received lots of calls & emails in recent days related to this testimony from 2016.



I testified again last year on the same topic



Both about a group called American Muslims for Palestine.docs.house.gov/meetings/FA/FA…
gop-waysandmeans.house.gov/wp-content/upl… If you don’t want to read the full testimonies, this piece by Bret Stephens when he was at the @WSJ.

Bottom line: AMP is populated by people who previously worked for Hamas charities that were shut down in America.

wsj.com/articles/the-a…

Saleh Al-Arouri, one of Hamas’s top officials, has reportedly been taken out in Lebanon. kan.org.il/content/kan-ne… Arouri was designated by the US Treasury.

He was also on the Rewards for Justice Program. home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel…
2017-2021.state.gov/rewards-for-ju…

Happy Thanksgiving to all my followers.

I've just put my Turkey in the oven. So, it's now time to revive a Turkey Day tradition.

Something is rotten in Turkey. Lots of things, actually. Let's review.

A thread…. I started watching Turkey's terror activity in 2010. That year Turkey sent a flotilla to Gaza to help the Hamas terrorist organization break out of isolation.

An NGO called IHH organized. IHH is nasty, with all kinds of terror ties. I analyzed here:

washingtonexaminer.com/weekly-standar…

20 days after war was declared, Israeli officials and media are signaling that Gaza ground maneuvers are drawing near. Chapter 2 of this horrific saga is set to begin. A few observations on what lies ahead:

1. The early hours of the ground maneuver will reveal whether Iran/Hamas planned additional surprises when they launched the war on 10/7

2. The IDF will reportedly engage differently than in previous ground wars. New tactics expected.

Now that the Ashli hospital flap is over, the media must prepare for a story that will be difficult to navigate. The Al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City is also the command center for Hamas. At some point, it will be an Israeli target. A legitimate military target, per the laws of war There will be massive information operations when this command center is targeted. Al-Jazeera and others will lead the charge. They will ignore that Mohammed Deif & Yahya Sinwar are there, among other Hamas military . I strongly recommend reporters start gathering facts now.

A few observations about the US-Israel dynamic as the Biden Admin inches closer to a reckless and potentially lethal nuclear deal:

1. Much was made of the enmity between Obama and Bibi. Both Biden and Bennett/Lapid vowed not to go down that path for the good of the alliance 2. The goal was to have transparency between the two governments while keeping disagreements private and out of the public eye.

3. Bennett/Lapid believed they would be rewarded for this dynamic with the freer flow of info, if not more influence on the Iran talks.

Gaza about to heat up idfanc.activetrail.biz/ANC0508202206 A few other observations:

1. Notable this is happening while Vienna talks return. A side plot, but undeniably on the minds of US negotiators

2. Interesting to see how Hamas reacts if PIJ attempts to escalate. Hamas is the “sovereign” in Gaza.

The new Iran deal reeks of capitulation. It will enrich the regime. And then it will backfire. Iran will acquire nukes. Everyone knows it. Including the negotiators. And it’s nauseating to watch world leaders pretend otherwise. Should the deal come to fruition, and there is a high likelihood it will, analysts will flood your feed with complex analyses: nuclear, sanctions, etc. But it will not change many minds. It didn’t last time, either. It certainly won’t now, with Russia committing atrocities

'Twas the night before Christmas,
when all through the region,
Not a creature was stirring,
but Iran’s foreign legion;

The rockets they placed
throughout Syria with care,
In hopes that the Quds Force
soon would be there; Lebanon’s broke.
Hezbollah is winning.
And as Iran knows,
this is just the beginning;

The weapons are nestled
all snug in their places,
While visions of war
put grins on their faces;

Russia won’t help.
Putin spreads more confusion.
But one thing we got wrong
was GPS fusion;

The Yom Kippur War broke out 48 years ago today. Egypt and Syria attacked Israel by surprise on the holiest day of the Jewish calendar. Israel found itself on the brink of defeat. A few observations follow, with relevance today: history.com/topics/middle-… 1. Israel was vulnerable to attack then, and it is still vulnerable today. It’s small size and proximity to enemies means that it must always be vigilant, even pro-active.

2. Intelligence failures happened then, and still happen now. The Middle East is still hard to predict.

Deeply disturbing image. Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar emerged from his bunker for this photo op. For context, this kid is the son of a slain Hamas fighter.

https://twitter.com/PalinfoAr/status/1396894558978457604

I’ve been watching hot takes on Biden-Israel for days. Slow down, folks. A few observations:

1. Biden gave Israel full freedom to operate against Hamas. He didn’t equivocate. It was full support. Full stop. 2. The president’s tough talk with Bibi only started after the ceasefire was announced. It was a blank check to signal to the angry, progressive left that he was being tough on Israel.

Bibi now live to Israel, touting damage to the “metro” system of Hamas, and other military capabilities, while endeavoring to minimizing casualties. Says that bringing calm will take time. Thanks Biden and other leaders for support. Bibi notes a drop in violence from the Arab community in Israel. This was an area of grave concern when it began. Notes the need to engage with the Arab community after this. The right message here, IMHO.

Israeli channel 13 broadcasts the flattening of a Gaza building that the IDF determined to be a Hamas asset. This appears to be the building that housed the AP & Jazeera bureaus....

'Twas the night before Christmas, when all through the region
Not a creature was stirring, but Iran’s foreign legion;

The rockets they placed in the Mideast with care,
In hopes that the Quds Force
soon would be there; The weapons were nestled
all snug in their places,
While visions of war
put grins on their faces;

In Syria the bombs burst
with a terrible clap,
While the U.N. settles in
for a long winter's nap.

OK, tweeps. It's Thanksgiving. Otherwise known as Turkey Day So it's time for my annual thread on Turkey... Turkey remains a hugely problematic NATO and US ally. From domestic oppression at home to illicit finance and support for terrorism and rogue states abroad, this is an ally in name only. And one gets a sense that the tensions with the US may reach a boiling point soon.

While Iran regime apologists attempt to explain how al-Qaeda’s #2 was just a pawn or under house arrest by the regime in Tehran, it’s worth remembering some fascinating history dating back to the early 1990s in Sudan. Under the leadership of Hassan Turabi, Sudan played host to Islamist conferences featuring violent actors from across the Middle East: Al-Qaeda, Hamas, Hezbollah...you name it. The goal of these confabs was to unite all violent Islamists under one banner.

But there is no AQ-Iran nexus, mmkay?

https://twitter.com/julianbarnes/status/1327405782237900801

The fact that Al-Qaeda enjoys safe haven in Iran has been known to CT analysts for years. It’s been reinforced by US Treasury designations—including during the Obama years. But mention it as part of Iran’s long list of malign activities, and you get branded a “war monger.”

(1) Today was a busy day. I’ve not had time to respond to the news about Hezbollah’s missile facilities that Israeli PM Netanyahu exposed today. But here goes... (2) We at @FDD have been warning about the threat of Hezbollah’s precision guided munitions (PGM) project, sponsored by Iran, for quite some time.
Writing: commentarymagazine.com/articles/jonat…
Speaking: meforum.org/60908/schanzer…

Like the Islamic State, without the beheadings.

https://twitter.com/matisaksk/status/1296815195407384576

Just imagine if the US -- or Israel! -- started converting mosques into churches or synagogues. The anger from the Muslim world would be seething. The State Department would be issuing apologies and doing damage control. What is Erdogan's Turkey doing? Gloating and doubling down.