Thread by @Peters_Glen

1. How will climate policy affect the oil price?

Historically, the oil price has had huge fluctuations without climate policy. What hope do we have to understand what may happen to the oil price in the future, with or without climate policy?

(Figure: macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil…)

2. Here are the oil price across scenarios assessed in #SR15. This may suggest 2°C is no different to the reference, & oil price is higher in 1.5°C scenarios...

BUT...

This is an unfiltered model ensemble with many biases, should compare model-by-model...

3. Comparing consistent scenarios in a model comparison (ADVANCE) gives a wide range of oil price behaviours depending on model.

Relative to reference scenarios, the oil price is generally (marginally) lower in a 2°C scenario & lower in 1.5°C scenarios (with large overlaps).

4. The IEA World Energy Outlook has a crude oil price:
* 2000: 40 $2018/barrel
* 2018: 68
* Current Policies: 2030: 111, 2040: 134
* Stated Policies: 2030: 88, 2040: 103
* Sustainable Development: 2030: 62, 2040: 59

Generally rising, but lower in mitigation scenarios

5. I think there is also a case for higher oil prices in 1.5°C & 2°C scenarios, driven by lack of investment & hence limited supply. [Though, I am not an oil price expert]

Are there many studies around that see oil prices rising with more stringent climate policy?

6. Recall in a historical context, the oil price swings from 20$/barrel & 150$/barrel depending on political & economic conditions (no climate policy).

Given the wild swings in historical oil prices, & we survived them, would oil companies be worried about climate policy?

/end