Thread by @Mykuhl

Normally on a Tuesday/Wednesday I put out a cricket stats article. I set aside time every Tuesday for doing analysis.

This week was no different, except that I decided to do some more work on a large project that I've been attempting for about 4 months, looking at ODI captaincy.

As a result, I didn't have anything to publish. But I did notice something in a different sport.

Ever since I was about 10 years old, I've followed (vaguely) the Portland Trailblazers. I saw them playing a match against the Bulls and I decided they'd be my team. 2/n

It's hard to follow too many sports, so I've generally only checked in on them from time to time, but there's still a bit of loyalty there, and I know more players from them than from any football side, so I have a small degree of fandom, without being particularly obsessive. 3/n

They've been a good side for a long time, and have occasionally looked likely, but they've never really had a season where they set the tournament alight, like the Spurs, Lakers, Celtics, Warriors, Heat, etc have in that time.

As a result they don't get much coverage in NZ. 4/n

But watching the scores go up on the @TribeSportsApp I've noticed something about them. They really suck in the 3rd quarter.

They almost always have a lead after the first quarter, and then seem to almost always be behind going into the last. 5/n

I also have followed the OKC Thunder recently, because Steven Adams plays for them, and so they get mentioned in the sports news more often. They also seemed to have the same pattern. They're good in the first quarter, and then awful in Quarter 3. 6/n

Sometimes when you notice something like that, it's actually your mind playing tricks on you. It happens 2 or 3 times, and you see a pattern where there isn't one. So I decided to see if there really was a pattern in the two teams that I watch most closely. 7/n

Here's a graph of all teams in the 3rd quarter vs the rest of the match. (I've used points differential here to compare them)

OKC and Portland are at the bottom in he 3rd, and near the top in the rest. It's quite dramatic. 8/n

These numbers are only since the season restarted, btw

The first quarter vs the rest is also quite telling.

OKC on top here, and given that they're one of the most defensive teams, they'd be well clear on ratio. 9/n

Finally, looking at the 1st quarter vs the 3rd, the comparison is incredible.

10/n

What does this mean? Well, it possibly means that both teams need to be a little more careful about their rotation. The 3rd quarter is often when the stars sit down for a rest. Staggering that a bit more might help alleviate this issue. It also might mean nothing. 11/n

Sometimes patterns just reflect natural variation, and it just looks like a pattern due to a small sample size. That's entirely possible too. But regardless of if it's real or not, I think it's interesting. 12/12