Michael Wagener Profile picture
Quickly becoming the Wes Hall of cricket statisticians. Once described unironically as New Zealand's second best jazz triangle player. Tweets are my own etc.
29 Sep 20
There was another really interesting innings in the #IPL match today. This time by Kane Williamson.

He scored 41(26) at Abu Dhabi. That's a strike rate of 157.7, which is the second highest for any score over 40 at Abu Dhabi this IPL. (Top was Suryakumar Yadav's 47(28) SR 167.9)
That, in itself, isn't particularly interesting. What is interesting is how he scored those runs.

He faced only 3 dot balls. He scored off the other 23. Those three dots were a ball he hit too hard to a fielder, one that hit him and they got a leg bye and the ball he got out on.
He scored 5 boundaries, all fours. So he scored 20 runs in boundaries, and 21 in non-boundaries.

He scored at a strike rate over 150, despite scoring fewer boundary runs than run runs. This graph is every innings this IPL with 30+ runs at 135+ Strike rate.

Williamson's in red.
Read 12 tweets
27 Sep 20
I'm going to make a few comments on Rahul Tewatia's innings, because, statistically, it's really interesting.

First of all, the rate of acceleration was astounding. Image
I find that breaking T20 innings into 15 ball groups is often really informative. It's very, very informative here. Image
Another good technique is to look at using exponential smoothing to look at a batsman's scoring rate. For Tewatia's innings, his smoothed rate is astoundingly low at the start, then astoundingly high at the end. Image
Read 8 tweets
26 Sep 20
Today is our iron wedding anniversary.

We're having a high-iron dinner.
Mmmmm Image
Seasoned, then into the oven at 90°c for a long time. Image
Read 5 tweets
11 Sep 20
While I'm loathe to praise a new tax, I've had a think about the new tax that Labour is proposing and while I think they could have done it a lot better, I can see some of the rationale in those numbers. 1/n
According to TradingEconomies, we're expected to have a government debt of about $98 billion at the end of this year.

The cost of servicing that debt based on our current interest rates is about $610 million per year. 2/n
A tax that raises $550 million from the top 2% income earners almost completely pays the maintenance costs of the debt that's kept our economy afloat during the pandemic created recession.

They'll be hoping that bracket creep will cover the rest. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
19 Aug 20
Normally on a Tuesday/Wednesday I put out a cricket stats article. I set aside time every Tuesday for doing analysis.

This week was no different, except that I decided to do some more work on a large project that I've been attempting for about 4 months, looking at ODI captaincy.
As a result, I didn't have anything to publish. But I did notice something in a different sport.

Ever since I was about 10 years old, I've followed (vaguely) the Portland Trailblazers. I saw them playing a match against the Bulls and I decided they'd be my team. 2/n
It's hard to follow too many sports, so I've generally only checked in on them from time to time, but there's still a bit of loyalty there, and I know more players from them than from any football side, so I have a small degree of fandom, without being particularly obsessive. 3/n
Read 12 tweets
1 Aug 20
Somehow an Indian fan managed to find a way to make England vs Ireland into further evidence of the greatness of MS Dhoni.
In the only ODI match that Billings and Dhoni have been on the same field for, Dhoni played a "mature" "anchoring" innings of 25(36) when India were chasing 322. India fell 5 runs short.
After people telling me that I'm wrong and that Dhoni is an expert in chasing in English conditions, I looked into the numbers.

Some fans are not going to like me for doing this....
Read 9 tweets
31 Jul 20
Modified Super Rugby concept

4 pools of 7 teams.

Top two from each pool go to quarterfinals. Winner hosts, runner up travels.

The pools are NZ, Aus + SE Asia, SA, and international.
NZ pool

Northern - Northland, North Harbour
Auckland - Auckland, Counties
Western - Waikato, Taranaki
Eastern - BoP, Hawkes Bay
Wellington - Wellington Manawatu
Canterbury - Canterbury, Tasman
Otago - Otago, Southland
SA - Cape Town, Pretoria, Joburg, PE, Durban, Bloemfontein, Kimberley 
Promotion/relegation from Currie Cup possible (current 7 team top division)

Australia - ACT, NSW, QLD, SA, VIC, WA and Singapore

International - Buenos Aires, Cordoba, Tucuman, Honolulu, Ota, Fuchu, Kobe
Read 6 tweets
7 Jul 20
If @dbseymour was smart, he'd be immediately finding a great Clutha candidate.

Walker's toxic, but Clutha voters won't vote against National, unless they're convinced that voting for a different candidate would be better for National.

Only ACT or an independent can claim that.
If ACT ran a serious electorate campaign, they could get 6 or 7 MPs in previously safe National seats.

That wouldn't impact National's number of MPs one iota.

It would be a strategy that could potentially see National/ACT take the reigns even if Labour get 50% of the vote.
^that would require some very strange things to happen with tbe minor party votes, or for ACT to win 11 electorate seats. But it's theoretically possible.
Read 4 tweets
9 Jun 20
Why I don't use the MyVodafone ap to pay my bills. A thread. @vodafoneNZ

I started to load it at 2:53... Image
After a pause, while it was in the background... Image
Read 7 tweets
24 May 20
I want to take a few tweets to talk about some of the things that the government has done well in response to Covid-19.

I've been fairly vocal with some of my criticisms, but I think that they've generally done a good job, particularly at the stary.
1. The wage subsidy.

This is excellent. It has deferred some of the pain and avoided since from ever happening.

By paying it up front, they have meant that businesses were able to have a degree of certainty in a period of massive uncertainty.
2. Using beaureacrats to speak at the press conferences.

Having Bloomfield, McElnay, Stewart-Black, Bush and Coster take prominent roles helped get buy-in across party support lines.
Read 6 tweets
13 May 20
I've been working for a camping ground do some analysis for their business.

At the moment the tourism industry is needing to change focus from overseas tourists to domestic tourists, so it's a good time to do target the capital expenditure carefully. I'm helping with that.

I ran a survey and got a fairly good response. It found some interesting things about how to target the marketing and who was responding from different methods. But I also found that about 15% of people complained about the bathrooms.

I could have just said "you need to improve the bathrooms" but I feel like that would be a bit generic, so I dug a bit deeper. I broke those complaints into 5 categories, and then mapped them, based on where they were staying.

That was really interesting.

blurred map below

3/n Image
Read 7 tweets
12 May 20
Here's a thought about how matches behind closed doors might be able to have more atmosphere.

This is a little involved, so I'm going to turn it into a thread.

This would work for @SuperRugbyNZ or @NZWarriors but also for other countries with good internet infrastructure. 1/n
Some of the issues with coverage from closed stadiums can't be solved easily. I wrote about some of the difficulties here:


But some can be solved, or at least mitigated.

One of those is getting a crowd response to celebrate things. 2/n
The basic idea is this: put a cellphone (or similar) on each seat. Have it connected to a device in the home of the ticket holder.

The sound of the people watching the game is transmitted from homes to the stadium.

That allows connection for the fans and also the players. 3/n
Read 11 tweets
17 Feb 20
New Zealand have just dropped the spinner with the best average of all NZ spinners in NZ since 1987 (min 100 overs) because he wasn't successful in Australia. #NZvIND
In the last 50 years, only John Bracewell has a better average than Mitchell Santner (29.39 vs 34.52) and only Bruce Martin has a better economy rate (2.29 vs 2.30)
He's also been better with the bat than all regular spinners except Vettori, (batting average 33.37 vs 33.30).
Read 20 tweets