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Kyle Lamb Profile picture
Kyle Lamb
@kylamb8
Economic analyst @flacommerce. Alum: Office of @GovRonDeSantis, @TeamDeSantis for President, @FloridaGOP. Now: TLH Then: CMH/ATL. Tweets are mine.

Aug 20, 2020, 8 tweets

(1/2) Some definitions first to explain this

Higher estimate (excess total deaths over 5Y ave.)
Lower estimate (deaths over 2x St.Dev of 5Y ave)
Unweighted (current total)
Predicted/weighted (projected total)

We're working off this link

data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Excess-De…

(2/3) This is the current display of all deaths in 2020 with and without Covid-19 (unweighted). Using lower estimate (2xSD), we're 135,593 deaths over normal; it's 193,437 using the higher estimate... the lower 5Y ave range.

(3/4) Now when we look at what the CDC is PROJECTING for the same date range (through week ending Aug. 8), which is the predicted weighted model, we see the 135-193,000 range bumps up to 174,930-235,728. This is what CDC thinks will be lower and higher results.

(4/5) But we must look at lockdown deaths. We can do this by seeing same table EXCLUDING Covid-19. Currently we are 17,148 excess without Covid (lower estimate, 2xSD) and 54,083 over higher estimate (5Y ave). This is the sum of those middle two columns (318/2216; 684/2609, etc.)

(5/6) But wait, there's more. Using the previous graph, we see the CDC is projecting (predicted weighted) a range of 29,416 (lower) to 78,932 (higher) excess deaths EXCLUDING Covid-19. This means the predicted range with CV (174-235k) we discussed is actually 145-156 with CV.

(6/7) There are currently 172,416 reported deaths as of today, Aug. 20, on the CDC Covid Data Tracker (158,262 provisionally certified).

Of those: only 144,811 of 156,979 (92%) listed in CDC certified select causes of death table were reported as underlying cause of death.

(7/8) In addition to the 8% of deaths that were listed on Part II of death certificates, not being underlying cause or contributing to immediate cause of death, 10,157 deaths are listed as probable on CDC data tracker, which means no proof of being UCOD or even contributing.

(end) That's at least 22,000 of the 172,000 reported deaths that were neither the UCOD or even confirmed as being Covid-19. Add in all the deaths being ruled UCOD but were probably not *from* rather than merely with, and I feel confident about this chart:

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