Thread by @AndrewPEllison

(1/7) Here is my extended thread on the #MO01 Democratic primary. On August 4, activist @CoriBush defeated 10-term incumbent Lacy Clay in a rematch of their 2018 bout. Bush dropped some in her southwest base, but improved everywhere else, especially in Clay's northeast base.

(2/7) #MO01 has distinct racial divides due to the legacy of redlining and white flight. The famed Delmar Divide splits the district into distinct northern and southern halves. Note that Cori Bush has done better in the south, while Lacy Clay has done better in the north.

(3/7) Arguably an even bigger #MO01 dividing line between Lacy Clay and Cori Bush is educational attainment. In 2018, note that pockets of white voters with fewer Bachelor's degrees in the far south and northwest still voted for Clay. They mostly swung toward Bush in 2020.

(4/7) While Cori Bush improved almost everywhere, #MO01 turnout is a very underrated factor. From 2018, city turnout increased 5.1%, but county turnout decreased 1.6%, heavily concentrated in Lacy Clay's northern black suburban base. This evened out the city-county vote share.

(5/7) The 2018-2020 #MO01 vote total changes are stark. In the city, Cori Bush gained 11,775 votes; Lacy Clay gained 97 votes. In the county, Bush gained 8,249 votes; Clay lost 13,022 votes. Over 4,773 Clay 2018 county voters fell off the map, bigger than Bush's 4,611 vote win.

(6/7) Many people assumed Cori Bush was losing #MO01 early on election night because she badly lost the absentee vote, but she crushed the election day vote, signifying a late-breaking race. It's a cautionary tale that we won't have all the answers on election night this year.

(7/7) Based on all of this information, Cori Bush did a good job of dramatically increasing her #MO01 vote share throughout the district, especially north side black voters, while Clay had severe turnout issues in the north and was caught flat-footed by a late-breaking race.