Passionate about government, elections, policy, and mapping. Focused on Midwestern politics.
Jan 7, 2021 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
Tonight, after an attempted insurrection by Trump-supporting rioters, House Republicans still voted 121-83 to overturn Arizona's electoral votes. Democrats unanimously opposed this motion, causing it to fail 121-303. Notably, at least 33 previous supporters flipped to no votes.
The Republicans who previous supported lawsuits and objections, but voted no tonight, that stand out to me include Greg Pence (IN-06), Elise Stefanik (NY-21), Dan Crenshaw (TX-02), Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA-05), and most Pennsylvania Republicans, among many others.
Oct 14, 2020 • 25 tweets • 5 min read
The results of our crowdsourced SurveyUSA Indiana poll are officially in, showing a single-digit presidential race, strong support for cannabis legalization and Roe v. Wade, and much more! Read the thread below for results and analysis! Link with crosstabs at the end. (1/25)
As a primer, SurveyUSA divides Indiana into four distinct regions for crosstab analysis. I've created this graphic to help visualize these four regions, along with the 2018 US Senate results by region for comparison, which show the benchmarks each party needs to reach. (2/25)
Sep 21, 2020 • 26 tweets • 9 min read
I think almost everyone underestimates how much Eric Holcomb is collapsing with conservative Indiana voters due to his mask mandate because the Governor's race has received zero national coverage. I think the Libertarian nominee likely has double-digit support right now. (1/25)
As a refresher, Eric Holcomb represents the establishment, "moderate" wing of the Indiana GOP. He was Mitch Daniels' deputy chief of staff, Indiana GOP Chairman (2011-2013), and Dan Coats' state chief of staff. Holcomb is a consummate insider. (2/25) indystar.com/story/news/pol…
Sep 18, 2020 • 8 tweets • 7 min read
There has been much discussion in recent years about abolishing the Electoral College. #OTD 51 years ago, the US House approved an amendment 338-70 to abolish the EC and establish a two-round popular vote system. I created this map to show the partisan/regional breakdown. (1/7)
In the 1968 election, Richard Nixon won 301 electoral votes (56%), but only won 43.4% of the popular vote, beating Hubert Humphrey by 0.7%. After the similarly close 1960 election, this created concern about the Electoral College and spurred reform. (2/7) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_Unit…
Aug 31, 2020 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
In November 2019, Indiana held elections for mayor, clerk, and city council in all 120 cities (plus the town of Zionsville) plus hundreds of town elections. Dems made big city council gains in the Indy metro; Republicans won big in North Central and East Central Indiana. (1/7)
Dem mayoral flips include the Obama 2008 cities of Elkhart, Portage, Decatur, Tell City, and Dunkirk; and the McCain 2008 cities of Zionsville, Washington, Charlestown, Scottsburg, and Tipton. Big gains in Indianapolis, Carmel, Fishers, and Columbus city councils as well. (2/7)
Aug 22, 2020 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
(1/7) Here is my extended thread on the #MO01 Democratic primary. On August 4, activist @CoriBush defeated 10-term incumbent Lacy Clay in a rematch of their 2018 bout. Bush dropped some in her southwest base, but improved everywhere else, especially in Clay's northeast base.
(2/7) #MO01 has distinct racial divides due to the legacy of redlining and white flight. The famed Delmar Divide splits the district into distinct northern and southern halves. Note that Cori Bush has done better in the south, while Lacy Clay has done better in the north.
Aug 19, 2020 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
It was so awesome that the DNC had Matthew Shepard's parents deliver Wyoming's delegates last night. I made this House roll call map of the Matthew Shepard and James Byrd Jr. Hate Crimes Prevention Act of 2009 (passed as a standalone bill before becoming a NDAA rider). (1/3)
The law was passed in response to the 1998 hate crime murders of Matthew Shepard, a 21-year-old gay man murdered in Laramie, Wyoming, and James Byrd Jr., a 49-year-old black man lynched-by-dragging by three white supremacists in Jasper, Texas. All murderers were convicted. (2/3)
Aug 12, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Here's my thread on the 2019 election in my hometown of Kokomo, IN. Three-term Dem Mayor Greg Goodnight (2007-2019) always won by double digits but retired after becoming deeply unpopular. GOP County Commissioner Tyler Moore rode the GOP wave to defeat Democrat Abbie Smith. (1/5)
Abbie Smith served six years as the president of United Way of Howard County and ran as a progressive outsider. She defeated GOP-turned-Democrat, ex-city councilman, and ex-Police Captain Kevin Summers in the Dem primary 58-42. She was a rock star nominee in the wrong year. (2/5)
Jul 21, 2020 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
In 2018, #MO01 Congressman Lacy Clay was challenged from the left in his primary by activist Cori Bush. He won by a decisive but soft 59-35, considering his large cash advantage and high name recognition. They are heading for a rematch two weeks from today. (1/4) #ElectionTwitter
MO-01's racial makeup is plurality black among all residents, and the Dem primary electorate is majority black. Compared to the 2018 election results, you may note that Cori Bush excelled with white voters in southern #MO01, but there's more to the story. (2/4) #ElectionTwitter
Jul 4, 2020 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
In 2012, Glenda Ritz flipped the Indiana Superintendent of Public Instruction office to Democrats 53%-47% in a massive upset against incumbent Republican Tony Bennett. She carried 57/100 State House districts due to strong support from historically Democratic rural areas. (1/7)
Bennett had a reputation of being an ardent opponent of public education, and public educators in particular. Outrage from teachers throughout Indiana toward his administration fueled the grassroots campaign that lifted Ritz, a previously unknown candidate, to victory. (2/7)
Jun 22, 2020 • 7 tweets • 5 min read
In 2019, Indianapolis Mayor Joe Hogsett was re-elected with a record-setting 71.5%. No Dem has ever done this well in Marion County. Hogsett won 24/25 council districts, sweeping a 20-5 Dem supermajority into City Hall. He only lost historically red Franklin Township by 28 votes.
Hogsett likely played a very large role in Dems' record-setting six City-County Council pickups (which I shaded in the district column on the left). In all six Dem pickups, Hogsett won their districts with at least 62.8%, too big a margin for Republicans to overcome downballot.
Jun 21, 2020 • 5 tweets • 4 min read
While the Republican primary for IN-05 was much more contentious than the Democratic primary, the election results were comparatively less interesting. State Senator Victoria Spartz dominated almost every part of the district, though Micah Beckwith won Tipton 32%-24.4%.
The township map tells a similar story. Spartz won every township except Cicero Township, which Beckwith won 28.4%-28.1% thanks to his strength in Tipton. I'm not certain why Beckwith did relatively well in Tipton, but it stands out.
Jun 20, 2020 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Here is my precinct map for this month's IN-05 Democratic primary results! Former State Rep and 2016 Lt. Gov nominee Christina Hale won with nearly 41% of the vote. Her greatest strength was in Indianapolis and its immediate suburbs, with softer numbers outside of the Indy metro.
Here is my township map of the results. Hale won all but the following (Hale-Thornton-Christie-Jacobs in order):
All of these are sparsely populated - except Anderson.
Jun 2, 2020 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
I expect Victoria Spartz and Christina Hale will win their #IN05 primaries in blowouts today. Spartz has run ads for months on local broadcast, highlighting endorsements from the Club for Growth, NRA, and Right to Life Indiana. Beth Henderson has had a few ads, but no one else.
Spartz portrayed herself as an outsider and hardliner Trump supporter; Henderson's ads tried to contrast her as an establishment conservative, even highlighting that she's "born in the USA" (Spartz was born in Soviet Ukraine and has a notable accent). I don't think it's worked.
Nov 5, 2019 • 18 tweets • 5 min read
I'm going to use this thread to discuss the results for Indiana as they come in tonight. I'll share any notable flips or key developments as they come in. You can follow along with the results at the following link. #ElectionTwitter
indianaenr.blob.core.usgovcloudapi.net/site/index.html
Initial questions for tonight: Will Dems be able to make pickups in the Indianapolis/Carmel city councils? Will Dems be able to hold onto power in fading blue collar cities like Kokomo and Anderson? Can Dems flip favorable cities like Portage and West Lafayette?
Aug 31, 2019 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Here's my first redistricting map I'm sharing on Twitter - a 2021 Illinois map with 17 congressional districts! It should pretty reliably elect 13 Democrats and 4 Republicans outside of red waves, and probably even then. #ElectionTwitter
Here is where each incumbent lives:
1: Rush
2: Kelly
3: Foster
4: García (Lipinski/Newman)
5: Quigley
6: Casten
7: Davis
8: Krishnamoorthi
9: Schakowsky
10: Schneider
11: Underwood
12: Davis (Dirksen Londrigan)
13: OPEN
14: LaHood
15: Bost (Shimkus)
16: Kinzinger
17: Bustos