Thread by @UgandaMediaCent

Unlocking new opportunities for growth in light of #COVID19

On the 1st September 2020, the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development will host the fourth Economic Growth Forum to reflect on the state of the Ugandan economy #EconGrowthUG20 [1/2]

Particularly in light of the recent global economic and health crises caused by #COVID19, and identify policy solutions to drive the country’s future economic growth performance #EconGrowthUG20 [2/2]

The conference will provide an opportunity to discuss immediate and medium-term growth challenges, learn from cutting edge research as well as policy experiences in other countries #EconGrowthUG [1/2]

And identify a course of actionable policies to promote and sustain inclusive growth in Uganda #EconGrowthUG20 [2/2]

The event will be co-hosted with the International Growth Centre (@IGC_Uganda). The audience will consist of @GovUganda officials, the donor community, and the academic and private sector #EconGrowthUG20

The timing of the Forum has been deliberately set to align with the @GovUganda’s budget cycle such that any actionable policy proposals identified may be incorporated into the budget strategy and action plans of relevant institutions for FY 2021-22 #EconGrowthUG20

Until the recent shock from the #COVID19 pandemic, the Ugandan economy had experienced a significant growth rebound since 2016, GDP growth reaching 6.8% in FY 2018-2019, driven by the agricultural, industrial and service sectors #EconGrowthUG20

This recovery involved addressing a number of key development challenges that threaten Uganda’s long-term growth trajectory #EconGrowthUG20 [1/2]

Including raising agricultural productivity; spurring a process of structural transformation, raising public savings and investment; and addressing labour force skills deficits #EconGrowthUG20 [2/2]

The recent #COVID19 pandemic and the global recession that has ensued have come at an enormous cost to Uganda’s economy both in the short and medium run #EconGrowthUG20

Despite decisive action from the @GovUganda to limit the spread of the disease, the sharp global downturn in economic activity and containment measures put in place have curtailed economic activity #EconGrowthUG20

Severe limitations on international transport have reduced exports and tourism, and have further restricted access to key industrial inputs, the collapse in the world economy has lowered remittances from Ugandans living abroad #EconGrowthUG20

While lockdown measures stopped people from working, constituting another supply shock and a strain on people’s livelihoods #EconGrowthUG20 [2/2]

As a result, economic growth is estimated to have fallen drastically to 3.1% in 2019/20,  and informal employment was expected to reduce by as much as 42% during the lockdown period #EconGrowthUG20

The objective of the Economic Growth Forum is to identify actionable policy interventions to be implemented in FY 2021/22 and medium-term to support economic resilience and recovery #EconGrowthUG20

To address these immediate challenges to the economy and identify key areas for policy in medium-term recovery, @mofpedU Ministry of Finance, Planning and has identified (three) key areas for discussion at this year’s High-Level Economic Growth Forum #EconGrowthUG20

• Assessing the global & domestic impact of #COVID19 & future prospects.This session will explore the outlook for the global economy, key structural changes & opportunities for developing countries & how policymakers can mitigate dev'g economies contraction #EconGrowthUG20 [1/2]

And position economies for recovery in 2021. The session will also look in particular at the macroeconomic effects of the crisis on Uganda’s economy and the impact on public finance #EconGrowthUG20 [2/2]

• Understanding the impact of #COVID19 on enterprises and households & @GovUganda’s policy response. This session will look in more detail at the effects of the crisis in terms of its effects on income levels, poverty & on the survival & functioning of businesses #EconGrowthUG20

• Identifying medium-term strategies for key growth sectors - for the most affected economic sectors, looking in particular at opportunities for trade and import substitution; tourism, and agriculture.

(Photo credit: @mjeff88 ) #EconGrowthUG20

The countdown ⏳ is on!

The 4th Economic Growth Forum #EconGrowthUG20

4th Economic Growth Panellist

Mr. Keith Muhakanizi is the Permanent Secretary and Secretary to the Treasury, @mofpedU #EconGrowthUG20 [1/3]

Muhakanizi has served in different positions at the ministry for more than a decade and has been instrumental in macroeconomics policy and planning, financial sector growth and private sector growth in Uganda #EconGrowthUG20 [2/3]

He serves as a member on Boards of numerous organizations which include East African Development Bank as Chairman, Housing Finance Bank Limited, Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC), among others #EconGrowthUG20 [3/3]

4th Economic Growth Forum Panelist

Jonathan Leape is the Executive Director of @The_IGC and an Associate Professor of Economics at the LSE. He has advised a number of African governments, with a focus on tax and regulatory issues #EconGrowthUG20 [1/3]

Leape served as Chief Academic Advisor on Taxation to the UK Government Economic Service. His research interests centre on public economics, with a particular focus on taxation and regulation, including congestion charging #EconGrowthUG20 [2/3]

Jonathan Leape has a PhD in Economics from Harvard University, where he was a National Science Foundation Fellow, and degrees from @UniofOxford
and @Harvard #EconGrowthUG20 [3/3]

4th Economic Growth Forum Panellist

@matt_teachout is the Research Director at the IGC London Hub, leading @The_IGC’s research programme across IGC partner countries. His fields of research are in development economics and industrial organisation #EconGrowthUG20 [1/2]

Teachout did his PhD at Columbia and has done extensive work on exporter quality upgrading and Special Economic Zones #EconGrowthUG20 [2/2]

4th Economic Growth Forum Panellist

Aldret Albert Musisi holds a PhD in Development Economics from the Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands #EconGrowthUG20 [1/3]

He has considerable experience in Economic Devt Policy, Macroeconomic Policy & Poverty Analysis. He was the Commissioner for Economic Devt Policy & Research in the @mofpedU but is currently the Commissioner for the Macroeconomic Policy in the same Ministry #EconGrowthUG20 [2/3]

He sits on the Board of @StatisticsUg. He also leads the @GovUganda technical team negotiating with other East African Countries to ensure the implementation of the @jumuiya Monetary Union & has considerable experience & knowledge on regional integration #EconGrowthUG20 [3/3]

4th Economic Forum Panellist

Nicole Ntungire is an @IGC_Uganda Country Economist.She holds an MPA in Econ Policy Management from Columbia University’s School of International & Public Affairs & a Bachelor of Social Science in Econ from Cape Town University #EconGrowthUG20 [1/4]

Prior to joining the IGC, Nicole was working at the @BOU_Official as a Senior Economist in the Research and Policy Directorate #EconGrowthUG20 [2/4]

She has also worked at the @WorldBank, as a Short Term Consultant, analyzing the scope and effectiveness of collateral and bankruptcy laws in facilitating lending #EconGrowthUG20 [3/4]

Nicole’s research interests are primarily in development economics with a focus on topics related to
growth and poverty dynamics, as well as, monetary economics
and macroeconomic policy in the context of developing and emerging economies #EconGrowthUG20 [4/4]

4th Economic Growth Forum Panelist

@cortipaul is a Research Fellow at the Macroeconomic department at the Economic Policy Research Centre #EconGrowthUG20

@cortipaul research interest is mainly in the Micro foundations of Macroeconomics by modelling the real business cycle, consumption, investment, monetary and fiscal policy, asset pricing, oil and gas, growth and the financial sector #EconGrowthUG20

@cortipaul is an enthusiast of Panel data and duration dependency analyses and has written extensively on employment, public finance and the politics of budgeting to that effect #EconGrowthUG20

Previously, @cortipaul worked as a Program Manager with UMC in the East Africa Annual Conference where he oversaw many poverty alleviation and leadership development programs in Burundi, Rwanda, Kenya, South Sudan and Uganda #EconGrowthUG20

Prior to being named to his current position in September 2013, Mr. @cortipaul received an MSc. Economics from the University of Essex, United Kingdom #EconGrowthUG20

Justine Ayebare is a Senior Economist with @mofpedU. She holds a Masters in Policy Economics from Williams College, Massachusetts, USA, an MBA from Edinburgh Business School, Heriot-Watt University and a Bachelor of Statistics from @MakerereU #EconGrowthUG20

Opening session commences

Mr. Keith Muhakanizi Permanent Secretary and Secretary to the Treasury, @mofpedU addressing guests in their different capacities: To get positive solutions from this forum we have identified three key positions #EconGrowthUG20

Muhakanizi: The 3 positions;
•Assessing the global and domestic impact of #COVID19 and future prospects
•Understanding the impact of COVID-19 on enterprises & households and govt’s policy response
•Identifying medium-term strategies for key growth sectors #EconGrowthUG20

Jonathan Leape is the Executive Director of @The_IGC talks about dealing with the known unknowns: Collecting and analysing of data from other countries experiences #EconGrowthUg20

Leape is the Executive Director of @The_IGC LIVE on Zoom: A need for research and data for coming up with policies "data and research to guide policy and decision making" the purpose of this conference is to show that data matters #EconGrowthUg20

Follow proceedings of the 4th Economic Growth Forum.

Live stream: facebook.com/MofpedUganda/v… #EconGrowthUG20

@matt_teachout Research Director at the @The_IGC London Hub on @zoom_us talks impact of #COVID19: There is a significant shock in the welfare of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa of 3.4% #EconGrowthUG20

@matt_teachout: The lockdown and containment measures have significantly affected firms "many firms now have low liquidity" #EconGrowthUG20

@matt_teachout says due to fear of infections persons are not going to purchase commodities in the markets thus affecting demand and supply #EconGrowthUG20

@matt_teachout: Post lockdown - Employment is growing back a little slowly compared to sales #EconGrowthUG20

According to @matt_teachout #COVID19 will most likely contribute to an increase in mobility of capital, mobility of goods and '@zoom_us' services - within firms, and some services offshored following a change in perception of face to face interactions #EconGrowthUG20

Dr. Albert Musisi Commissioner @mofpedU: Global economy projected to contract by -1.9% #EconGrowthUG20

Musisi: Economic impact of #COVID19 in Uganda: "March, April and May is a sharp decline in economic activity". He however adds that there is a surge in the economic activity registered in the most recent months #EconGrowthUG20

Musisi: Slump in global demand and disruption in the supply chain resulted in a decline in both exports and imports. Recovery in May and June (this he credits to maize and coffee exports) #EconGrowthUG20

Musisi: However, there was a bigger decline in imports than exports resulting into a reduction in the tree deficit from $ 2.87bn in FY 2018/19 to $ 2.34bn in FY 2019/20 #EconGrowthUG20

Dr. Musisi indicates that Tourism declined significantly by 62%.

"A significant fall in Foreign Direct Investment and Tourism receipts in the 2nd half of 2019/20, but not as bad as earlier projected"

(photo credit: @mjeff88) #EconGrowthUG20

Musisi: Signs of recovery but full recovery to potential growth projected to be gradual because of low aggregate demand which continues to be affected by income #EconGrowthUG20

Musisi: In a bid to reduce costs, some firms are continuing to shed labour despite the ongoing recovery in economic activity #EconGrowthUG20

Musisi: Foreign and domestic demand expected to recover slowly, particularly in the first half of FY 2020/21 #EconGrowthUG20

Musisi: Uganda's economy is projected to grow at a slower rate of 3.1% in FY 2020/21 compared to the previous projection of 6% #EconGrowthUG20

@JosephMuvawala the Executive Director @NPA_UG says @GovUganda should concentrate and make better the wins it has registered during this #COVID19 period; for instance food production "I don't know what could have happened if we weren't producing food" #EconGrowthUg20

Dr. Musisi responds to Questions from the audience: "We are proposing a special liquidity fund for small and medium enterprises" but this shall be further discussed in the afternoon #EconGrowthUg20

Dr. Musisi: At the moment the private sector is struggling but on the other hand, what government needs to do is to boost the aggregate demand "the @GovUganda has so far boosted the supply side" #EconGrowthUg20

@matt_teachout: We know that children are less affected by #COVID19 but there are still some underlying factors that are affecting people other than #COVID19 (malaria for example) #EconGrowthUG20

Justine Ayebare Senior Economist @mofpedU says there are key objectives of @GovUganda stimulus programs

• Maintain households' economic welfare
• Help firms survive the crisis #EconGrowthUG20

Ayebare Senior Economist @mofpedU talks challenges and opportunities
#Challenges
•Limited Fiscal space
•Effective targeting for the correct beneficiaries
•General vs sector-specific (Tourism, Agric & Manufacturing)
•Changing assumptions and data provision
#EconGrowthUG20

Ayebare Senior Economist @mofpedU on a positive note

#Opportunities
•Encouraging local production •Promoting Digitalization across sectors (Finance, Education, Health) #EconGrowthUG20

According to Wilbrod Owor, the Executive Director @ugbankers, banks are increasing investment in treasury bills (now 38.2%) as a risk measure against expanding credit in uncertain times #EconGrowthUG20

@cortipaul: There is a need to cater to salary arrears at this time because eventually, these schools will collapse "because most of the schools have suspended salaries because they are fully dependant on school fees" #EconGrowthUG20

@cortipaul: "More agriculture businesses were hit in the West (region of the country) than other parts of the country" - points at most agriprenuers located in the west, with other regions majorly vested in subsistence farming #EconGrowthUG20

Nicole Ntungire of @IGC_Uganda says handouts, as short term interventions should be encouraged and not downplayed as measures to assist mute the impacts of #COVID19 on the public #EconGrowthUG20

Wilber Ahebwa is an Associate Professor of Tourism at @MakerereU quoting the @UN World Tourism Organisation indicates that international tourist arrivals dropped by 58-78% in May 2020. However, experts anticipate a recovery in late 2021 #EconGrowthUG20

According to Ahebwa, leisure tourists are the most important to the tourism industry but will be the last to return. This group of people are the largest spenders and dominant clients for up-country lodges and tour operators #EconGrowthUG20

Ahebwa summarizes a number of factors that will delay the return of high-spending international tourists

• Lack of access to a vaccine
•Concerns over access to high-quality medical care
•Health safety issues related to travel #EconGrowthUG20 [1/2]

(📷 credit: @mjeff88)

Cont'd....

•Likely increased cost of airfares given reduced demand and expenses
•Reduced purchasing power of tourists due to loss of income
•Up-country lodges will not re-open until they can be assured of a reasonable level of capacity utilisation #EconGrowthUG20 [2/2]

Ahebwa: The post #COVID19 oriented interventions should aim at; keeping destination Uganda in the limelight to influence post #COVID19 decisions, addressing capacity gaps across the value chain, quality assurance and product development issues #EconGrowthUG20

Ahebwa: Fiscal and monetary measures to mitigate the negative effects of #COVID19; revision of @BOU_Official lending rates, special support schemes for self-employed workers, establish & operationalize a tourism investment fund #EconGrowthUG20

Ahebwa: Brand image - build a positive and competitive image of destination Uganda - online visibility in key source markets #EconGrowthUG20

Ahebwa: Establish an intelligence framework to monitor trends and status of tourism during and after the #COVID19 #EconGrowthUG20

John Spray a postdoctoral researcher in Economics at @Cambridge_Uni and Teaching Bye-Fellow at Jesus College Cambridge indicates that #COVID19 disruptions caused a 43% reduction in imports #EconGrowthUG20

Keith Muhakanizi reads @RuhakanaR's speech on behalf of the Prime Minister: I am contented that this conference has enabled us to meet and share actionable policies "we are part of the solution" #EconGrowthUG20