The dot-com bust happened because there was usually no viable business model and speculators were bidding based on future expectations (delusions). But ultimately it was the central bank which deflated the bubble. We are now dealing with survivors of the bubble.
This is not to say that another crash can’t happen (in fact, recent conditions have created an excellent exit opportunity), but rather that there is no further capacity remaining in the system to deal with the potential fallout of such abrupt deflation.
It is more likely in my opinion that the central banks will attempt to keep the whole charade going as long as they are able. In other words, they are going down with the boat.
During the last bubble, boomers were 20 years younger and passive investing was not as prevalent as today. Short term priorities and demographical forces will prevail. Therefore my money is on at most a temporary (10% to 20%) correction happening this year.
Further undiscussed is the diminishing purchasing power of money. People always demand more money, not better purchasing power. What’s left after paying the daily dues of civilisation will probably go into equities and Bitcoin.
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