Thread by @unseen1_unseen

How elections can shift from a blow out to a close election. Say 6 out of 10 people vote for a candidate, 3 out 10 vote for the other major candidate and 1 out of 10 votes for someone else. Now say 1 out of those 6 decides to vote for the other major candidate and 1 out of 6 for

someone else. Then you have 4 out of 10 voting for each candidate and 2 out of 10 voting for someone else and then you have a tie where before you had a 60/30 election blow out. It doesn't take much in theory.

Now what happens to a "close election" where 5 out of 10 originally voted for one or the other major candidate and then 1 out of ten switch. Well you had a 50/50 election go to a blow out of 60/40 election. So why doesn't this happen often? Because people don't swing their votes

In other words about 9 out of 10 voters will always vote the same way unless something major occurs for them to reevaluate their core beliefs and that means that most of the campaign crap is useless and is there more for that 1 out of 10 voter & to GOTV than anything else.

The "horse race" meme might sell a lot of media air time but in the end it's not a race. It's a war of attrition. Trying to reach targeted groups that could be persuaded. This is where Trump's outreach to the black vote comes into play and the dems' outreach to "soccer moms".

This is always why campaigns based on hating the other side don't normally work well. That 1 out of 10 voter just doesn't hate the other side that much and it doesn't factor into their vote. Sure the fear solidifies each candidates base but fear doesn't persuade. Hope does.

Believing in a better future for their children does. If the hope is based on real results, well then that's when you get major swings and that 50/50 contest becomes a 60/40 blow out.