Thread by @EremiasWmikael

THREAD:
Some #Eritrea|n friends like .@meddaG had asked for my thoughts on #TigrayElection2020. I can not say who has the suppprt given there is no tradition of reliable survey/polling, but I watched the first debate on Tigray's right of self- determination. Here is my take. 1/n

ውናት (Independence party) was so comfortable given the topic is its prime issue. They were confidently on the offensive. They are seeking secession from #Ethiopia and forming an independent republic. They successfully showed that they had thought about the issue in depth. 2/n

ባይቶና (Congress) is seeking for a Confederal arrangement. They are one step below. They think a confederal union with/within #Ethiopia between independent states is more useful than standing alone. Yet, they were on the defensive from ውናት'ስ derision and mockery. 3/n

ሳልሳይ ወያነ (Third Revolt) is comfortable with a federal arrangement with greater autonomy for states. They think article 51 of current constitution of #Ethiopia weakens states and they want to get rid of that. They attacked TPLF for not being rooted-enough in Tigray 4/n

ህውሓት (TPLF) was under attack from the 3 parties, but they defended themselves well by mentioning that the robust rights under current constitution like Article 39 became reality because of TPLF, and they were still open to anything the people of #Tigray want. 5/n

ዓሲምባ (ADP) was perhaps the most timid because they seem to be terrified of conflict arising from the topic. That appeared like they were crippled by fear. They kept appealing for resolving things in peace. 6/n

ዓረና (Arena), TDP, and ብልጽግና (PP) have chosen not to participate in the election. I wish Arena was there, but their absence says a lot about their view on the topic. I think it was a mistake for Arena not to participate. TDP & PP are not serious contenders in #Tigray. 7/n

Interesting stuff: ውናት was asked about how they would insure that #Tigray does not become a dictatorship like #Eritrea. ባይቶና'ስ concept of democracy (unclear) and attack on foreign ideologies of TPLF and ሳውት (Social Democracy) was interesting. 8/n

My take is that, TPLF's defensiveness posture on the topic says that the question of independence might be a foregone conclusion. The discussion I observe among former young fighter of TPLF and the younger elites produced by schools such as Qelamino & MIT says as much. 9/n

Overall, I was so impressed by the parties, the youthfulness of the leaders (mid 30s), and the encouraging journey of democracy and pluralism in #Tigray. I could not help but have a ቅዱስ ቅንኢ። ንዓኹም የምስለና ኣሕዋትና። ሰናይ መረጻ ይግበረልኩም! 10/n