Thread by @thescottwolford

#APSA2020 paper with @hilango and @curtismbell, on the link between oil discovery and coup attempts: scott-wolford.com/uploads/2/5/2/… (1/x)

We show that oil wealth itself is unrelated to coup attempts, but proved yet unexploited oil reserves create a commitment problem (2/x)

The government can either coup-proof or placate plotters once oil wealth comes online, but in the interim, when future power is known but unrealized, militaries may attempt to topple the government (3/x)

and as the potential shift in power grows larger, the necessary chances of success go down. So larger oil discoveries prompt more coups that are also less likely to succeed! (4/x)

And, surprise surprise, we find all these patterns in the data. Oil wealth itself unrelated to coup attempts, prospective oil wealth related to more coups and a reduced probability of success. (5/x)

And while I'm the one promoting this, @curtismbell ran down the data and @hilango, who's on the job market this year, did the hard work on the empirical analyses. They're awesome. (6/6)