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Looking forward to presenting at this panel, as well as seeing the posters and roundtable that follow #CJPoliSci20 (note: this was once part of #APSA2020, but is now independent and free to attend, though you have to sign up via a link in the thread below) 
Great live-tweeting coverage of the panel here:
An uninvited guest has arrived:
Voters impressions of each party ~match the issue emphasis of each party's message in each election year, but voters' conceptualization of political conflict doesn't change as party messages do
Our #APSA2020 slides with notes are here:
matthewg.org/partymessages-…
Sorry no paper.
Our #APSA2020 slides with notes are here:
matthewg.org/partymessages-…
Sorry no paper.
Marty Wattenberg & I find that when each party talks about economic, foreign, or social issues in platforms, speeches, & debate answers, voters reference those issues in their ANES likes/dislikes
eg Dems & voters more on econ in 96, less in 2016
Reps & voters more on wars in 04
eg Dems & voters more on econ in 96, less in 2016
Reps & voters more on wars in 04
But there is little to no relationship between whether parties talk about politics in terms of principles or group benefits & whether voters do.
When Dems talked more about ideology in 2012 & 2016, voters didn't. When Reps talked more about groups in 2016, voters didn't.
When Dems talked more about ideology in 2012 & 2016, voters didn't. When Reps talked more about groups in 2016, voters didn't.
I went to an #APSA2020 panel on applying for jobs at teaching-oriented institutions—something many R1 grads want but that R1 faculty aren't always equipped to advise them on. Here's a thread with what I learned: 1/
1. Apps for teaching institutions need to look different from apps at R1s. You need to center teaching in your cover letter & CV—don't bury either. Def. don't put teaching at the end of your cover letter like you might for an R1. 2/
2. Teaching institutions know they are often not R1 applicants' 1st choice. If they *are* your first choice, you need to drive that home. Research the institution & explain why you want to work *there* specifically. 3/
Tonight I'll be presenting my #APSA2020 paper, "The voting power of demographic groups". You can find the paper at drive.google.com/file/d/1G-SHiy… and a video presentation at (1/n)
The idea behind the paper is simple: the power of a voter group is the number of seats where the result would have been different had that voter group not voted—or alternately, the number of seats in which that voter group was pivotal (2/n)
The implementation is also simple, in a sense, and relies on multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) plus some post-hoc adjustments (3/n)
#APSA2020 paper with @hilango and @curtismbell, on the link between oil discovery and coup attempts: scott-wolford.com/uploads/2/5/2/… (1/x)
We show that oil wealth itself is unrelated to coup attempts, but proved yet unexploited oil reserves create a commitment problem (2/x)
The government can either coup-proof or placate plotters once oil wealth comes online, but in the interim, when future power is known but unrealized, militaries may attempt to topple the government (3/x)
