Thread by @Milhouse_Van_Ho

SEPT. 8 - Canada/Ontario/Québec daily update

I will endeavour to post an update using this template every if not most mornings, using the most current data available at the time.

#COVID19Ontario #covid19canada #covid19quebec

Canada - Covid-19 still presents a risk primarily to the elderly, not to children and hardly to working-age adults.

Deaths among those over 80 account for 71.4% of covid deaths.

This contrasts to overall deaths, for which the 80+ cohort accounts for 50.9% of deaths (based on 2016-2018 averages).

Bear in mind that the risk of death will always rise in line with one's advancing age. Such is life.

In a given year, like 2018 as an example, 9.2% of those in the over-80 age cohort pass away.

Children and young adults are at lower risk from Covid-19 than from influenza and pneumonia.

The risk of death by Covid-19 is higher than that by influenza and pneumonia as one's age advances.

This is based on 2020 YTD Covid-19 data and 2016-2018 averages.

If considered as a wholly distinct and separate cause of death in Canada, Covid-19 would be the 6th leading cause of death in 2020, much like influenza and pneumonia.

This is based on 2020 YTD Covid-19 data and 2016-2018 averages.

Ontario - What looks like the start of the fabled second wave (going by case counts) hasn't shown up in the figures for deaths.

So far, the trend in cases since late spring hasn't matched the trend in deaths.

Likewise with ICU occupancy.

This is what 2020 YTD would look like in Ontario month-to-month if:
1. All-cause deaths (excl. Covid-19) are in line with 2016-18 averages
2. All Covid-19 deaths are single-cause excess deaths

n.b. Nearly 65% of ON Covid-19 deaths are among residents of long-term care homes.

This is what 2020 YTD would look like in Ontario year-to-year if:
1. All-cause deaths (excl. Covid-19) are in line with 2016-18 averages
2. All Covid-19 deaths are single-cause excess deaths

n.b. Nearly 65% of ON Covid-19 deaths are among residents of long-term care homes.

This is what 2020 YTD may look like in Ontario on a cumulative basis, using 2016-18 average monthly deaths as a proxy for 2020 data.

n.b. Nearly 65% of ON Covid-19 deaths are among residents of long-term care homes.

Ontario - Growth in cumulative cases is outpacing growth in cumulative deaths.

Ontario - Growth in cumulative tests conducted is outpacing growth in cumulative cases.

Québec is already in the midst of the third wave if one goes by case counts.

However, no trace of even a second wave in the deaths numbers.

Or in ICU occupancy.