Thread by @Tom_Swann

Weapons of Gas Destruction - a major new report from me @TheAusInstitute out today.

Australia has a huge amount of gas in the pipeline and in the ground. If it gets burnt, we're all in big trouble.

A thread on some findings. Report here: tai.org.au/content/weapon…

Australia is the world's largest LNG exporter and one of the largest fossil gas producers in the world.

Australia caused most of the LNG growth over the last decade and more than any other country over the last 20 years.

Australia has rapidly increased its share of world gas production, even faster than it has increased its proven reserves. We've had our foot right down on the gas.

The huge increase in gas production and exports has pushed up Australia's emissions - making up 10% of our official domestic emission, not even including consumption of gas in homes or factories or power plants.

Gas is a fossil fuel. When we mine and burn it, we cause climate change. But fossil gas is mostly methane, which is itself a powerful heat trapping gas.

Australian official methane stats are put in doubt by many studies showing much higher rates of methane loss.

Some of these studies show rates of methane loss from massive unconventional gas fields that would /double/ the climate impact of fossil gas over a 20 year horizon.

The government talks about a 'gas fired recovery' without even mentioning the emissions. Currently there are 22 major gas projects proposed by companies around Australia. There are also shale gas projects proposed in Beetaloo and Canning Basins (NT and WA).

Australia is already the world's largest LNG exporter. The gas supply capacity from these proposed projects would be larger than current exports and almost as large as total current production.

So if this all went ahead, what scale of emissions? More than half of Australia's current annual emissions, and if methane loss is as bad as measured elsewhere, much higher

But wait, that's not all! There are massive gas resources in the ground that companies and governments are eagerly pursuing...

Here's the gas companies have 'identified'. It's four times bigger than all gas extracted from Australia to date.

And here it is compared with all the Beetaloo and Canning and other shale gas and all the other frontiers governments and companies are trying to get at.

The 'prospective' gas estimates have a big range, driven by some staggeringly large estimates in the Canning Basin. In total, the range is around 0.5-2.0 million PJ

Extract and burn it all? Here's the gas lobby...

If the gas industry and governments would like to tell us which gas resources they are not going to burn, that would be awesome!

If we put a flame to the gas resources we already have 'identified' and on the books, Australia would release more CO2 than total annual emissions FROM ANY COUNTRY.

This is just burning the gas. Methane loss and other fugitives would massively increase this.

Including the shale and other gas frontiers still under exploration, the emissions are larger than the entire world for one year, and possibly as large as three years.

🔥😳🔥

Same point put differently, it would be larger than fossil fuel emissions from any company, since the world agreed to tackle climate change. Larger than Exxon, Chevron and BHP put together.

The gas industry loves saying gas "could" displace coal and so "could" reduce emissions - usually without any evidence.

The reality is success on climate change means all fuel use, including gas, has to decline.

Even Brian Fisher has co-authored reports that more gas means more emissions. Even the IEA warns "gas remains a source of emissions in its own right and new gas infrastructure can lock in these emissions for the future".

Numerous studies in Nature have shown we have to stop building new fossil fuel infrastructure - yes, including gas.

Meanwhile the boffins at AEMO tell us that the lowest cost pathways for the grid involve a LOT more wind and solar and a LOT less gas.

I was especially humbled to read APPEA describe my report as "tired, discredited and intellectually vacuous". Three adjectives, an adverb and an admission the gas industry wont grow as big as they have previously said. theguardian.com/australia-news…