We incur a lot of blowback when we get too out ahead of the “known” mechanisms. It is clear that the epidemiological curves show decay of the pandemic. There are still many “possible” causes:
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1) herd immunity due to: cross immunity, asymmetry in transmission pathways, significant undercounting of viral spread, and others.
2) the precise mechanism needs to be studied and definitively understood.
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3) if it is from social distancing and or masks, loosening will increase infections. But if the increased infections are among the young there will be very very few increased deaths.
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4) This all is important to know, but completely unimportant to guiding our actions. The increased infection rates are not killing very many people. We can open up schools and businesses with very reasonable safety.
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5) We should exercise caution in medical settings, extended care facilities and continue protecting the vulnerable until we know with certainty that there are no important seasonal or social distancing effects. It is not necessary to stay shutdown, anywhere.
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6) By protecting the vulnerable, we mean, essential services need to be available in a safe fashion to the vulnerable and isolation must be accommodated where necessary.
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7) Research on repurposing existing drugs, the epidemic, the virus and even vaccines should be continued but spending reprioritized and stepped down from current levels. The need is now getting our economy and lives restarted.
/end
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