Thread by @WindrushLives

MINI-THREAD [THREAD 7]:
We’ll be doing a full run down of the car-crash appearance of @MatthewRycroft1 and co before the @CommonsPAC this morning in due course, but there’s one tiny thing we want to get out of the way, because it tells a complex story very simply. [1/7]

About 5mins into the session, @YvetteCooperMP asks a very simple, contained and clear question. You paid 143 people approx £1m, 143 people being 10% of the claimants *at that time*. Extrapolating, that would lead to total payments of about £10m. [2/7]

That is WAY less than the min £200m this Scheme was supposed to pay out. So... what’s happening? Now - and this is NOT @YvetteCooperMP’s fault - the error is clear. 10% of total claimants *at the time* is not the same as 10% of total expected claimants. [3/7]

Multiplying the ~£1m by 10 only gives you expected payments for 1,430 claimants, whereas the Scheme estimates were originally based on 15k claimants all said (which number has apparently been slashed by approx **23%** - and we WILL be coming back to that.) [4/7]

So actually, the ~£1m is closer to representing 1% of the total (which pro-rata is still half the *lower limit* (200m) of what @ukhomeoffice promised, but let’s park that for now). The point is this: this is a fair q for @YvetteCooperMP to ask, and a simple miscalculation. [5/7]

It’s not @YvetteCooperMP’s job to crunch these numbers and know these percentages and proportions off the back of her hand. It is, however, @MatthewRycroft1’s job, and that of his sundry @ukhomeoffice colleagues on the call. [6/7]

At minute 11 of the section @MatthewRycroft1 is still bumbling about unable to answer this very, very KS1 maths question. No one is helping him. These jokers run the country, and this particular subset of jokers runs this Scheme. Fin. (Will try to post clip later) [7/7]