Thread by @swardley

I will enjoy reading the details but on the surface ... good, well done -> UK and Japan agree historic free trade agreement - gov.uk/government/new…

X : Do you agree with brexit?
Me : Always have done. It's not an easy path but if UK can manage to engineer trade deals with US and China, if UK uses state aid to encourage development of industries particularly around areas that are industrialising (hint ... use a map) ...

Me : i.e. follow the same path as China, special economic zones focused on encouraging startups in areas that are industrialiing then an internal game of last man standing before pushing the winners onto a global market ... rinse and repeat ...

Me : ... then we will be fine. In fact, far better than fine, it could well become a golden age and worth a few broken eggs along the way.
X : What about the vaccine moonshot?
Me : Tricky. If done in the right way, it could be about industrialisation of an important space ...

Me : ... but it has to be about industrialisation, climbing the value chain on the right (see China or Amazon). The danger is we fall into the trap of genesis (the novel and new) rather than take the Amazon like approach.

Me : It's a bit like Space. If the partial acquisition of OneWeb is used to focus on industrialisation of space then it'll be fine. If the focus and attitude becomes building novel and new, then it'll be a white elephant. I am alas, not filled with confidence by this Government.

X : Don't you think the vaccine moonshot is about industrialisation and mass scale?
Me : It could and should be. But if we start talking developing novel technology ... it's a bit like PPE when we should be focused on industrialisation not building novel ventilators.

Me : It's a problem with creative industry where people want to reinvent the existing into the novel and new rather than focusing on industrialising the pre-existing (as per Amazon, China).

It's about attitude i.e. rather than pioneering space, we should aim to make it boring.

Me : Which brings me back to that trade deal. There is some obvious good headlines i.e. ban on data localisation but at the same time things which raise concerns i.e. new protections for UK creative industries. This is why the details will matter.

X : State aid is allowed under EU rules.
Me : Sure, for research. But what we need is to encourage the industrialisation of pre-existing technology and that would count as interference in a pre-existing market. But I'm unconvinced the UK approach is really that nuanced.

Me : mix of innovation funds to encourage research into the uncharted space plus moonshots focused on industrialising specific areas (including use of special economic zones to encourage startups to do that job) is the right way to play in my book. Not all state aid is the same.

If UK gets this right, then brexit will be a boon. If UK gets this wrong and these moonshots become a bonanza of the creatives then it will be a bust.

Well, at least we get to find out if Dominic has a bit of Deng Xiaoping about him. Not exactly filling me with confidence.

X : UK is all about creative industries.
Me : Our history isn't. What put Great into Great Britain is the same as what makes Amazon and China great - the boring. We used to be great at turning the novel and new into boring - the industrial revolution, the age of electricty etc.

So, if we can make vaccines boring, if we can make Space boring, if we can make Robots boring, if we can have a motto of "putting the boring into everything" then UK has a decent shot. If we rely on creative industries and creative finance ... we're in a lot of trouble.

X : What's your gut feel?
Me : Right now? I suspect we're going to double down on creative and build a whole bunch of Theranos' with not a single Amazon among them. That's why the details matter about the trade deals, the moonshots etc.