Simon Wardley Profile picture
❤️🇺🇳 I like ducks, they're fowl but not through choice. Thought Lord. Lives in a swamp. Painted by AI. Born 321 ppm CO₂.
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Mar 25 5 tweets 2 min read
No surprises, this was clearly signalled back in 2015.

During this decade has the US disentangled its reliance on China in the semiconductor industry?

I'll let you guess. We will be entering a phase in which the US high-tech industry (including the military complex) is highly dependent upon China, whilst China is not dependent upon the US.
Mar 5 15 tweets 5 min read
A couple of prompts with Claude 3 creates a Wardley Map for economic sovereignty in the defence space.

Not bad at all -

On par with political, military and defence folk I've spoken to. I'm also finding I can have a reasonable discussion about mapping with Claude 3.onlinewardleymaps.com/#clone:XvHskIi…Image It's not perfect but it's not bad. There's more I want to interrogate Claude over ... i.e. the link to secure sourcing, the positioning of some components etc. But it's almost good enough that I can start a discussion over strategy and investment.
Feb 28 9 tweets 2 min read
dX: What is the single most significant problem facing AI today? Safety? Lack of skills? Inertia?
Me: Overinflated expectations by the business. dX: You don't think AI will become widespread?
Me: Of course, it will; industrialised components are rapidly becoming cost of doing business. Don't confuse that with expectations. There will be an awful lot of disappointed businesses hoping it would create some advantage.
Feb 16 7 tweets 2 min read
For those who don't know, I'm working increasingly on and with Glamorous Toolkit - ... I have become fascinated by our willingness to blame humans for problems that are created by our toolsets ...gtoolkit.com ... I saw this last night at Cloud Camp. Apparently, the issues with understanding, explainability and observability in AI are down to humans' inability to deal with complex environments... no, they're not. The problem is with the tools and the type of tools we are creating ...
Feb 2 7 tweets 2 min read
dX: Have you thought about adding another axis for your maps
Me: Hmmm. Maps start with identifiers users and their needs ... Image ... the understanding the chain of components needed ... Image
Jan 18 15 tweets 3 min read
Faulty products, harm to users, executives profiteering, fighting compensation ... what is truly bizarre about the Fujitsu Horizon case is that the public seems to think that this is an isolated example rather than the normal way that traditional corporations act. Just take a look into any industry, pick something like retail with BNPL (by now pay later) to EWA (earned wages access) to use of slave labour. It's story after story of despicable behaviour, of exploitation of both workers and consumers in pursuit of profit.
Jan 13 8 tweets 3 min read
dX: Any thoughts on cell based structures?
Me: Do you mean, "use small teams" i.e. take a map and break it into small teams?
dX: Yes
Me: It's in my doctrine table, I've been doing this for 18+ years, I think it's a good idea ... BUT ..
dX: But?

1/2
Image
Image
Me: You really want to get the basics done first, like understanding your users, their needs, the components involved, etc.
dX: Can't we just add cells?
Me: And the cells will magically fix the org for you without any work? Sounds like some McKinsey ppt. I would start with the basics.

2/2Image
Jan 11 18 tweets 4 min read
Let's hope that before becoming entangled in a more extensive conflict, we have thoroughly contemplated not only territorial aspects but the wider technological, economic, social, and political landscapes. It is crucial to pay attention to supply chains from energy supplies to agriculture to rare earths -> To give you an idea, around 21% of automotive parts ship through that region and though there are alternative paths, some perishable goods might not survive the journey. Land-based shipments have problems because of other existing conflicts.
Jan 9 13 tweets 4 min read
dX: Do you use Cynefin?
Me: I find it useful.
dX: Can I replace your evolution axis with ...
Me: Complex, complicated ...
dX: Yes
Me: No
dX: Why? Let us take a map. A user has some need met by some capability for which there are three competing solutions, all at different stages of evolution in the product space ... e.g. it could be power production and micronuclear vs tidal power vs solar Image
Jan 2 8 tweets 2 min read
Choices, choices ... when your existing system of power is under threat you can either

a) adapt

or

b) double down on reinforcing existing power structures through fear of others, of change etc.

"I only have one rule. Everyone fights" Johnny Rico. In other words, when the ruling power (and its agency) is under threat then the tendency is to double down on "threat from others", that sense of belonging to a collective (which has mostly been ignoring you) and concerns over safety -> Image
Dec 9, 2023 7 tweets 2 min read
Looking forward to reading this. I don't know the deets yet. Fingers crossed they went with the proposals giving exemptions for open source. By that, I mean actually open source - including training data - and not pretending to be open with a subset of the symbolic instructions. Otherwise, it'll be game, set and match to China shortly ->
btw ... minor quibble. China's generative AI laws came out on the 15th of August.
Dec 5, 2023 14 tweets 4 min read
The mañana mañana fallacy of growth ... if only we grow, can we fix the problems. This is sad to see, repeating the mantra of neoliberalism as if there was no alternative. Often accompanied by slurs of "grown up", "responsible", and "realism". I suppose it could be worse. Labour could be arguing for supply-side economics and the trickle-down effect.
dX : Supply side economics?
Me : Ah, the return of supply-side Jesus. It's the same stable as the trickle-down effect i.e. questionable skid marks in the history of economics with people denying it as much as they keep on trying it. Very popular with Ayn Rand readers i.e. fruitcakes.
Image
Dec 3, 2023 6 tweets 2 min read
dX : Will AI help solve our energy and food problems?
Me : Unlikely
dX : Why?
Me : I've examined investment (using maps) across 14 industries. Take agriculture, ChatGPT et al spews the same crap that analysts do, focused on return of capital rather than fixing the problem ... Image Me : Using ChatGPT et al to help create your strategy in the commercial world is fine because you're only focused on growth, making a return on capital and what the analysts think is important (a feedback loop). You should question doing this in Government. Take sustainability. Image
Nov 7, 2023 15 tweets 4 min read
dX : Do you store your maps in github?
Me : Yes. The code can be found here - . The tool I use is

... but ...github.com/swardley/MAP-R…
onlinewardleymaps.com Me : ... I'm slowly starting to store the SVG files.
dX : Why?
Me : Eventually the code will be the images. This is the world that large multi-modal models are taking us into. Our current concept of what is code will become archaic. Image
Oct 31, 2023 15 tweets 4 min read
dX: Thoughts on #AISafetySummit
Me : None. I'm busy focused elsewhere.
dX : Isn't it a major issue?
Me : About 50 of us looked at this back in April, the two major issues are legislation and equity (openess, democratisation of benefits) ... Image ... of these, openess is one of the major traps. When we talk about Open Source then that means all the symbolic instructions needed to recreate the function of what is open source. That can be more than just code, in the world of LLMs and LMMs it includes data and images ...
Oct 18, 2023 9 tweets 2 min read
dX: Have you written up the mapping sustainability sessions?
Me: No. That won't be for months.
dX: Hmmm.
Me: Well, in the mean time, this makes a rather neat summary of it.
dX: The problem is money?
Me: The problem is return on capital. Image There's a world of difference between where we need to invest to fix a problem and where we invest to maximise returns. You might need civic engagement to fix the problem (but that's not a lot of financial opportunity), there's more in technology and financial instruments.
Aug 8, 2023 16 tweets 3 min read
X: Any thoughts on building a platform?
Me: The reason why you build a platform is to enable an ecosystem. A platform is simply those components (ideally expressed through APIs) that your ecosystem exploits. X: Ok, the platform enables an ecosystem but why build an ecosystem?
Me: The reason why you build an ecosystem is for componentisation effects and to exploit others through data mining on consumption. Your ecosystem is your future sensing engine, assuming you use it correctly.
Jul 13, 2023 14 tweets 3 min read
+100 -> Loved this. Having mapped out cybersecurity with over 60 people (different companies) the high priority themes were
1) Resilient culture
2) Cyber immunity (i.e. constantly attacking yourself to build up immunity)
3) Rapid growth of AI
4) Situational Awareness / Supply Chain. Image
Jul 1, 2023 8 tweets 2 min read
X : How do you show collaboration on a map rather than competition?
Me : Collaboration, co-operation and conflict are all subsets of competition. Where you choose to collaborate or to conflict on a map because you want to protect part of the map (a border) is your choice. X : Competition is the opposite of collaboration.
Me : Conflict (fighting others) is different from collaboration (labouring with others), which is different from cooperation (helping or enabling others).

ALL are part of seeking something with others i.e. competition.
Jun 21, 2023 16 tweets 6 min read
Excellent thread and also spot on. But this is not just a problem with agriculture and finance but also with healthcare, defence, manufacturing, construction, energy, telecoms, transport etc.

In every one of those industries ... ... the same problems appear. How do I know?

Over a year ago, I took 240 mappers and created 12 research groups covering 12 industries. We followed the same process for each industry.

Since @EdConwaySky discussed cucumbers, I'll take the agriculture group as an example ...
Jun 21, 2023 4 tweets 1 min read
Minimum wage is not a target nor is it socially acceptable. It's the absolute minimum below which the act is a crime. One of the sanctions is disqualification of directors for 15 years. That should become standard practice. -> 200 companies shamed - gov.uk/government/new… I've heard the arguments for how some retailers try to stabilise monthly payments and hence fall foul of the minimum wage but frankly, you should never be approaching minimum wage ... this is the level where the act becomes a crime, it's not an example of good.