Thread by @asfoooooom

First principles thinking applied to Internet connectivity and the digital divide - a thread

1. A first principle is an axiom or assumption that is self evident and therefore can’t be deduced from other assumptions. The most relevant first principle that can be applied to Internet connectivity is Shannon’s Law. en.m.wikiversity.org/wiki/Shannon%2…

2. Shannon’s law describes the theoretical maximum data rate at which can be transmitted over a communications channel of a specified bandwidth in the presence of noise. Very roughly speaking is the theoretical maximum “download speed” in bits per second.

3. Stare at that equation and you will realize that “bandwidth” in gigahertz is proportional to Shannon Capacity. Optical fiber has 53,000 GHz of bandwidth, several thousand times more than any other medium. Thus fiber’s Shannon Capacity is highest in the world.

4. Data demand will continue to grow exponentially. This isn’t “proven” by physics but I’d argue it can be viewed as a first principle as well. It is self evident. See @Cisco’s reports on this. cisco.com/c/en/us/soluti…

5. Half the world is unconnected, lives on $5.5/day and can spend no more than $1-2/month on Internet connectivity. Also self evident. worldbank.org/en/news/press-…

6. To reduce the cost of connectivity by several thousand times, a medium with the highest possible Shannon Capacity which offers cost-based pricing is required. History of Internet transit prices shows that fiber networks exhibit a declining marginal cost per bit.

7. But some may say, fiber deployments are expensive! First principles ask “why”. Break down cost of deployment and you find that fiber cable costs less than $1/meter and most of the cost lies in labor, permits and make ready costs.

8. Shortening the distance from humans to the nearest fiber network lowers cost per GB and increases data rates. Transmitting data over wireless consumes a lot more energy than over fiber.

9. The Medium Voltage electrical grid is < 200 meters away from humans. Higher the voltage, lower the electrical line losses (first principle). This follows that single digit or low teen line losses are only possible physically when 6 KV - 60KV lines (MV) are < 200 m from humans

10. Thus it follows, retrofitting fiber on MV power lines will result in the lowest possible deployment cost and will bring all electricity customers within 200 meters of a fiber network. If this network offers cost based pricing, price of connectivity will fall as usage grows.

Some clarifications
1. A single strand of fiber has 53,000 GHz of bandwidth and most fiber cables have 48 strands or so

2. In every market I’ve studied the MV electrical network is less than 200 meters from households. Usually a lot less in dense countries like Pakista