SEPT. 14 - Canada/Ontario/Québec daily update
#COVID19Ontario #covid19canada #covid19quebec
1 death reported in all of Canada (population: 37,971,020).
85,216 additional tests to confirm 518 additional cases (0.6%).
1.9 active cases per 10,000 people in Canada.
Canada - Covid-19 still presents a risk primarily to the elderly, not to children and hardly to working-age adults.
(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)
Deaths among those over 80 account for 71.3% of covid deaths.
This contrasts to overall deaths, for which the 80+ cohort accounts for 50.9% of deaths (based on 2016-2018 averages).
(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)
Bear in mind that the risk of death will always rise in line with one's advancing age. Such is life.
In a given year, like 2018 as an example, 9.2% of those in the over-80 age cohort pass away.
(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)
Children and young adults are at lower risk from Covid-19 than from influenza and pneumonia.
The risk of death by Covid-19 is higher than that by influenza and pneumonia as one's age advances.
(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)
If considered as a wholly distinct and separate cause of death in Canada, Covid-19 may be the 6th leading cause of death in 2020, much like influenza and pneumonia.
(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)
Ontario has reported 4 covid deaths so far in September.
- That's an average of 0.3 deaths / day.
Ontario now reports:
- 1.3 active cases per 10,000 people
- 39 in hospital (-4)
- 14 in ICU (+2)
- 9 in ICU on a ventilator (+1)
Ontario now reports:
- 1.3 active cases per 10,000 people
- 39 in hospital (-4)
- 14 in ICU (+2)
- 9 in ICU on a ventilator (+1)
Ontario - The proportion of cases resulting in death (yellow line) is now close to zero, vs. ~15% at peak.
This is what 2020 might look like in Ontario month-to-month if:
1. All-cause deaths (excl. Covid-19) are in line with 2016-18 averages
2. All Covid-19 deaths are single-cause excess deaths
(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)
This is what 2020 might look like in Ontario year-to-year if:
1. All-cause deaths (excl. Covid-19) are in line with 2014-18 averages
2. All Covid-19 deaths are single-cause excess deaths
(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)
This is what 2020 YTD might look like in Ontario on a cumulative basis, using 2016-18 average monthly deaths as a proxy for 2020 data.
Ontario - Growth in cumulative cases is outpacing growth in cumulative deaths.
September so far:
- 549 cases per 1 death (0.18%)
- Cumulative cases up 5.2%
- Cumulative deaths up 0.1%
Ontario - Growth in cumulative tests conducted is outpacing growth in cumulative cases.
September so far:
- 158 tests conducted per 1 positive test (0.6%)
- Cumulative tests up 12.1%
- Cumulative cases up 5.2%
Québec has reported 10 covid deaths so far in September (to Sept 12th).
- That's an average of 0.8/day.
Québec now reports:
- 2.3 active cases per 10,000 people
- 124 in hospital (-1)
- 19 in ICU (+3)
Québec now reports:
- 2.3 active cases per 10,000 people
- 124 in hospital (-1)
- 19 in ICU (+3)
Québec - The proportion of cases resulting in death (yellow line) is now close to zero, vs. ~15% at peak.
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