About half of the respondents here think Trump will need 48% in the tipping point states to win. Another ~1/4 said 49% or more. Just 27% think he could sneak by with less. Something to keep in mind as we focus on margins over vote share/undecideds.
As a refresher, Trump won each of these with pluralities--third party share in (). Top 3 normal enough. The rest had some extraordinary dynamics lowering the threshold for victory.
NC 49.8 (4)
FL 48.6 (4)
PA 48.2 (4.4)
AZ 48.1 (7.4)
MI 47.3 (5.8)
WI 47.2 (6.3)
UT 45.1 (27.8!!)
Even more stark if you compare to other recent cycles
Worthwhile piece from @amyewalter from way back in June making the case for focusing on share, not margin when assessing Trump's position down the stretch:
@amyewalter This line stood out:
"If Trump is sitting at 42-45% in state polls this fall, it's almost impossible for him to get to 50%, especially when we know that undecided voters tend to break against an incumbent."
RCP has him at 45% in the battlegrounds, buoyed by 47% in FL/NC.
Right on cue
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