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Liam Donovan Profile picture
Liam Donovan
@LPDonovan
Politics. Hoyas. Building something new @TargetedVictory | Views expressed are mine alone, obviously. @TheLobbyShopPod
Oct 2, 2024 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Here's an issue that is totally unknown to all but the true sickos, a situation that stands to turn tens of millions of Americans into unwitting felons in the next 90 days. And now it's showing up in OHSEN. Classic case of a well-intentioned (or at least well-named) law that no one in the federal govt has bothered to inform the citizenry of, despite creating affirmative new requirements on any owner/partner/officer of a small business, for profit or non-profit alike, effective 1/1.
Jun 22, 2024 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
First time I have seen this tactic. Pennsylvania Values is a super pac funded almost entirely by the building trades that was most active in 2018 the last time Casey was up, spending $1.1M against Barletta. Spent another $285k in 2020 against Trump. Full spot here. The message is... not subtle. But without a firm grasp of the subtext you'd have no idea this was coming from the left.
May 10, 2024 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Respectfully this is totally backwards in my experience Most of DC is increasingly inured to a Trump win and it's a GOP House that's unthinkable. Lotta compartmentalization.
May 22, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Our debt limit state-of-play conversation on @TheLobbyShopPod ICYMI: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the… On the time crunch, and the utility of an interim deal to do a deal.
May 19, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Because this seems to be CW at this point, let's be clear--there's nothing easy about pulling together permitting reform language that both parties can support in the immediate term. Spending side is far simpler (and more necessary) to resolve. Image Otoh, this is an interesting flag to plant. If the bar is simply not spending more than FY23 that's the best deal Ds were ever going to get regardless. And it's the most open acknowledgement yet that nobody is prepared for a rollback borne entirely by NDD. Image
May 18, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Tell me you've lost the plot without telling me you've lost the plot.

(I kid. Not picking on Doc here but this is the wrongheaded view of most of this website.) A deal isn't done until it's done, nor passed until it's passed, but this thinking betrays a misunderstanding of the dynamics at play, and a failure to adjust to what happened on and since Jan 7.
May 18, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
To Ben's point, the deal is there if people want to get to yes. When the poles are howling that's usually a signal that something is afoot in between. And as it happens, angry progs/HFCers are a feature to the respective rank and file types. Key will be Rs carrying their weight. Remember--none of these people, on either side, were ever going to support a deal. Registering their dissatisfaction was just a matter of time. To the extent their public comments capture their true angst, this is them going through the motions and playing their part.
Jan 11, 2023 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
twitter.com/i/web/status/1… I don't want to be overly doomer-ish because I do think something will give, but it takes a reaction from the folks currently winking at the camera. Consider this peace of mind is predicated on a process available 2 days/mo after 30 days of ripening & a 7 legislative day layover.
Jan 9, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Shot: Chaser:
Dec 13, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Beginning to think jumping into the presidential for no apparent reason, with no plan or strategy, and while forgoing the chief megaphone afforded to you might have been a mistake. Rs have failed to capitalize on the openings Trump provided them since he came down the escalator, so I don't read a lot into hypothetical matchups against non-campaigns from pols who have yet to step into the ring, but he is not doing himself any favors.
Dec 4, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
realclearpolitics.com/articles/2022/… Surprising amount of angst in the replies for something that shouldn't be surprising. Nobody pays me to weigh in on the merits of this populist tack; they do pay me to anticipate what's coming and how best to navigate. That's how I read Zac's piece as well.
Nov 4, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
The failure to grapple with *why* everyone was wrong in 2020 ends up render it a totem of vague hope instead of serving as a lesson that this stuff all fits together. Nothing about Rs gaining seats was surprising given the presidential outcome. I had a rant about this today on the @SCorpAssn podcast. It's not that the House polling in particular was wrong--though it obviously was--it's that people expected a blowout (contra lip service to competitive election) and forecast congress accordingly. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tal…
Oct 30, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Never hurts to have another look, and the incumbent averages both have their pros and cons. The nice thing is that this has clear criteria and no special sauce. Biggest Q in my mind is whether the gap is a function of partisanship/quality or mode effect. split-ticket.org/2022-nonpartis… To wit, beyond losing the sheer volume of the mildly pro-R herd along with a couple GOP-aligned surveys w/ especially rosy results, the net effect is mostly driven by (>B-) online pollsters who have been coming back w/ surprisingly good Dem numbers.

MC D+5/D+3
BV D+4
YG D+4/D+2
Sep 20, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Manchin's biggest problem here isn't Senate Rs and it isn't even House Ds. It's that there's no sense of urgency or pressure to move the yet-unseen package he's pushing on the CR--at best it's a decent compromise product but without the mutual ownership that drives cooperation. Middle-out legislating works when you demonstrate the market at the partisan margins. Imputing that from one guy's sense of what will satisfy his counterparts on either side is hard enough without trying to hitch it to a 10 week funding bill in the waning days of the session.
Aug 17, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
“If you want to have Trump stay retired... the people you need to convince are Rs who voted for him 2x, who like him, who are entertained by him, who are grateful for many things he did, who hate his critics, who think he was treated unfairly." -@RichLowry nytimes.com/2022/08/17/us/… A corollary, until proven otherwise, is that if you want to win at the moment with an R next to your name you have to mumble through distasteful parts of the emerging creed. There are a handful of primary systems that can elide this, but that's the fundamental tension.
Aug 12, 2022 • 16 tweets • 8 min read
366 days after the formal kickoff to this process, I just posted my "Bottom Line" from our 46th and final (?) @PolicyRez reconciliation update. Time for a drink. lpdonovan.substack.com/p/you-cant-alw… Today's piece amounts to fitting coda to this one, which was captured an entire offspring ago.
Aug 11, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
I've talked a lot about IRA's transformation of the EV credit, but one thing that's still under-appreciated is the timing: effective upon enactment. Dealers/direct sellers have maybe 10 days under current regime. By time consumers rush to showroom, nothing on the lot may qualify. Basically if you wanted to use the EV credit in the next several years you should order one right now.
Aug 8, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Other than the timing-related break-up/make-up on Build Back Manchin last month, the single biggest plot twist of this whole saga came in December with the dramatic, telecast demise of BBB live on Fox News Sunday. Think of it as the end of the beginning. It really shouldn't have come to that, and Ds left a lot on the table because of it. But important to remember things were heading that way already, and the symbolism was useful if not necessary to move on.
Aug 7, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Bernie can safely and righteously and futilely do this knowing they need 60 votes for any of his stuff to happen. Performative, however genuine. Related
Aug 6, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
IE make Rs kill it A little inside, but interesting thought exercise on how this could play out in practice
Aug 6, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Schatz and Smith aren't exactly likely candidates to go rogue, but making a big show of this makes sense if only to preempt pressure to judge changes "on the merits" vice protecting the product. Climate hawk blood oath, assemble