Quick macro thoughts... Will probs be a mini thread...
S&P (or QQQ...) still undecided, could go either way; lower vol right now means insurance (i.e. long vol trades) is cheaper
Duration (30Y USTs) hanging at 1.4%, VXTLT <15, and as low as since pre-COVID (probs bullish)
Gold has been coiling up again, GVZ went below 20 briefly on Monday, it's c. 21 now, if it breaks down to mid-teens again (like July) then could be a great buying opportunity for LEAP calls (lock in the low vol)
Oil is struggling, lots of debate on supply/demand, and on USD...
If Oil stays <$40 then CPI should be softer in Q4; also note OVX is c. 40 (was >50 a few days ago), and materially higher vol than August when 32
Would recommend watching Oil closely, as the ramifications to CPI (with a lag) are important for entire Inf vs Def debate
Why are all the above asset classes a bit unsure on Monday?
Probs because the USD is hanging within its short term trading range, will it fly up, or crash down? Or just chill in 92-94 DXY range for a while?
Next move in $ will be important for most markets
Many smart people think USD [CRASH / MELT UP] (insert one!) is for sure going to happen, but the price action in short term is just 'meh'. So not a bad time to be patient too. Am not making major portfolio decisions atm, want to see how Inf vs Def, and USD narratives play out...
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