[Thread] Last week, @ColinPClarke and I wrote two pieces assessing al Qaeda. Here I want to compare our main points with the Trump admin's assessments of the group, especially as there is a @HomelandDems hearing on worldwide threats on Sept 17. 1/n
In the first piece in @ForeignAffairs, we examined the global trajectory of al Qaeda, making a case for more attention to the group's observable political cohesion across major affiliates, which has improved since 2014-16. foreignaffairs.com/articles/afgha…
In the second piece in @ForeignPolicy, we looked at Ayman al-Zawahiri's leadership of al Qaeda, arguing that analysts often overlook his careful politics, which many jihadists resent but it has aided al Qaeda's cause in recent years. foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/10/zaw…
Around the same time as our pieces, senior Trump admin officials offered very different assessments on al Qaeda. In remarks to the press on way to Doha for the intra-Afghan talks, Sec Pompeo mostly dismissed the group -- which has been his line this year. state.gov/secretary-mich….
In an op-ed on Sept 10, like Pompeo, the Director National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) Christopher Miller argued that al-Qaida is very weak and that victory against the group is in sight. washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
I am open to being wrong and the admin's recent assessment being right. The al Qaeda in decline thesis is an important one, and smart people (than me) have made it with important frameworks and metrics. For example, see this @dbyman piece.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.108…
Here is the problem. Miller's assessment departs from where the NCTC was at recently. In late 2019, his predecessor Russ Travers offered a different take on al Qaeda. See Travers' testimony to Congress: dni.gov/index.php/nctc…; & speech to Wash Institute: dni.gov/files/NCTC/doc….
You might say that was Travers in late 2019? But I don't see what has happened since to al Qaeda for NCTC to reach such a different conclusion. There have been hits against al Qaeda in Syria & Yemen since, but overall, there is continuity than a step-change in AQ trajectory.
Given the current politics surrounding the DNI, Director Miller should explain his assessment -- and the shift from Travers' take. There was no worldwide threat assessment report this year, so his upcoming testimony before
@HomelandDems is important. n/n homeland.house.gov/activities/hea…
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