Senior expert @USIP. South Asia security issues. Opinions my own.
Jul 31, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
There is now growing chatter that the two strikes this morning in Kabul were drone strikes, likely against ISIS-K targets.
@RahmatullahN was the first to suggest:
Interesting and unusual interview of Chinese consul general in Karachi Li Bijian on Pakistan’s political situation, challenges facing Chinese investors and security situation. Some highlights: geo.tv/latest/430300-…
Says the new coalition government is “very impressive”, Shehbaz is “bulldozer prime minister.”
Jul 29, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
After Pak missed the July 2 IMF board meeting & the currency started crashing, it was overdetermined that Pak will not be able to wait till the next meeting in August & ask for an early disbursal of the IMF tranche. So in that sense I am not surprised this happened. But…
…fact that Bajwa made this call to Dep Sec Sherman tells me the crisis has deepened, other options stand exhausted, and the economy is teetering on the brink. Worth remembering that last week, Pak PM assistant Fatemi also met Sherman. state.gov/deputy-secreta…
Jul 20, 2022 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
How bad is the economic crisis in Pakistan? Here is what I am tracking:
.@FaseehMangi watches Pak's access to int'l capital market, which is looking grim:
[Thread] Highlights from the UN 1267 sanctions committee monitoring team’s latest report on Al-Qaeda and ISIS: documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/…
Al-Qaeda is more settled and Zawahiri more comfortable and communicative since the Taliban’s takeover. It doesn’t pose an immediate threat from AFG due to lack of capability; it also doesn’t wish to embarrass or make things difficult for the Taliban.
May 31, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
.@IKPeshawar reports Pak & TTP have "agreed to extend the ceasefire and continue peace talks following separate meetings with Mullah Muhammad Hassan Akhund, Acting Prime Minister of the ‘Islamic Emerate of Afghanistan (IEA)’ at his office the other day." dawn.com/news/1692383/i…
Confirms presidential pardon for TTP leaders Muslim, Mehmood Khan: "GoP, sources said, had demonstrated its seriousness by acceding to some of the TTP’s demands...presidential pardon to two key militant commanders, including TTP Swat spokesman Muslim Khan, was one such demand."
May 31, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
.@MYusufzai reports a 50-member jirga of prominent tribal elders is due to "fly to Kabul tomorrow for meaningful talks with the Afghanistan-based Pakistani Taliban..." thenews.com.pk/print/962230-t…
Jirga will be led by former Senator Saleh Shah, has members from all seven tribal districts and Malakand.
May 28, 2022 • 10 tweets • 8 min read
[Thread] UN's 1988 Taliban sanctions committee monitoring team's annual report is out. It is the team's first report for the committee since Taliban's takeover. Some highlights on Taliban cohesion issues, al-Qaeda, ISIS-K, foreign fighters in Afghanistan: documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/…
On Taliban leader Akhundzada: He is based out of Kandahar, is becoming more autocratic, dismissive of dissent--possibly following his predecessors who were less consultative over time. Also many member states assess little discernible change in behavior of Taliban since 2001.
May 27, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Excellent, informative discussion between @IhsanTipu, @IftikharFirdous and @salarzai_ for their new channel @khorasandiary on ongoing talks between Pakistan and the TTP in Kabul.
Main points:
- Deoband school’s Mufti Taqi Usmani likely part of 1 of 2 jirgas going to Kabul to speak to TTP; other jirga drawn from 16 districts of KP
- Jirga likely to push for ceasefire extension; current ceasefire ends May 30th
May 25, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Khan is (again) marching to Islamabad to topple the new gov't & -- significantly -- make a point against army chief Bajwa. He sure has enthusiasm behind him but does he have the machine to go against an army chief, land a strong punch? About to find out. dawn.com/news/1691441/a…
Thread: There have been reports of talks between the TTP and Pakistan for a couple of weeks. The Taliban now confirm talks are underway *in Kabul* and that they are mediating. This is significant.
The TTP is also confirming it is talking to Pakistan through the Taliban -- and that it is extending a ceasefire, which was first announced at the end of Ramzan, till May 30th.
I have been writing and commenting about the TTP’s growing threat and ties to the Taliban for a while — so it has been apparent that things were trending in this direction. I want to flag four things:
Last July, in a trip to Pakistan, I sat down with @SaleemKhanSafi for his @geonews_urdu show Jirga, discussed a range of security and foreign policy issues including the TTP and its relationship with the Taliban:
Apr 17, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
I am quoted in this story on Pakistan’s airstrikes in Afghanistan, whose death toll has risen to 45. The strikes, intended to target TTP fighters, have killed civilians.
Some context here: After Taliban’s August takeover, Pakistan hoped the Taliban will restrain the TTP out of gratitude for Pakistan’s help and support for the insurgency. But the Taliban did the opposite: It began enabling the TTP’s buildup of a major war machine in Afghanistan.
Apr 16, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Taliban démarche Pakistan’s ambassador in Kabul on strikes conducted by Pakistan in Afghanistan last night:
Highlights from CENTCOM chief nominee Lt Gen Michael Kurilla's responses to advance policy questions by Senate Armed Services on China, Afghanistan, Pakistan, al-Qaeda and ISIS issues: 1/n armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/…
On China/major power competition: China's growing ambition and exploitative behavior in the Middle East best countered through coalitions and partnerships; realignment of assets due to global posture review likely to reduce US capabilities in the region.
Sep 5, 2021 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
.@mgordonwsj, @vmsalama, @jessdonati, @glubold report that in the lead up to Aug 15th US special envoy Khalilzad negotiated a deal with the Taliban to remain on the outskirts of Kabul for two weeks and transfer of power to an interim gov’t, but Ghani fled. wsj.com/articles/insid…
In a May deliberation, Pentagon wanted to discuss emergency evacuation and plan to remove Afghans at risk, but White House asked those issues be removed from the agenda.
Aug 23, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Al-Qaeda statements on the Taliban's return to power:
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula:
I am quoted in this @WSJ story in which senior admin officials tell @vmsalama and @wstrobel that intelligence assessments didn’t totally factor in the effects of a swift US military withdrawal on the viability of the Afghan government. wsj.com/articles/intel…
From the story:
Aug 15, 2021 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
As the Taliban take control of Kabul, I have many stories on the structural drivers of this moment — which certainly pre-date the Biden presidency — but the rapidity of the final collapse is on President Biden.
The message I am seeing from the admin is that 1) Feb 2020 US-Taliban Doha deal locked the admin on an irreversible path 2) only alternative was staying. This framing is not right. As I see, the admin made lot of choices beyond the withdrawal, which exacerbated the deterioration.
Jun 24, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
.@nahaltoosi & @AndrewDesiderio: "...administration official said...that, in Friday’s meeting with top Afghan officials, Biden “will emphasize the need for unity, cohesion, and for the Afghan government to focus on key challenges Afghanistan faces.” politico.com/news/2021/06/2…
"A senior Biden administration official on Thursday confirmed that the U.S. is planning to evacuate Afghans who have been waiting for “special immigrant visas” because they aided Americans."
Jun 24, 2021 • 20 tweets • 4 min read
[Thread] Tomorrow President Biden will meet Afghan President Ashraf Ghani & Chairman HCNR Dr Abdullah Abdullah at the White House amid a worsening situation in Afghanistan. So I want to assess Biden admin's Afghanistan policy, what it is trying to do, and its efficacy. 1/n
Since assuming office, the admin has identified a number of priorities: It wants to pull US forces out swiftly and safely, establish an over-the-horizon CT posture in region, deter the Taliban's military takeover, revive the peace process, and keep the Afghan republic viable.
