Thread by @ThirdWayTweet

Her cutting edge research has been deployed to win some of the toughest races and move public opinion on some of the toughest issues. She was recently called arguably the most influential woman in her field.

@LanaeErickson is chatting with @celindalake.

.@celindalake: Trump isn't personally well-liked & is carrying a very negative job performance rating.

We see a huge gender gap in the data. Women see him as chaotic, divisive, egotistical, not listening to experts. That's a governing style they don't think fits this time.

What's happening in the heads of suburban women, and what do people get wrong?

📣 These are not your grandma's suburbs. One thing people get wrong about suburbs is how diverse they are. @celindalake points to Prince George's County, MD and Fairfax, VA as examples.

Women are not for defunding the police but they realize that means reprioritizing spending (incl training, mental health). Most assume Biden is not for defunding the police, and he has been clear about that.

In most states, they prioritize issue of racial justice over violence.

2018 suburban women voted very Democratic. They loved the female candidates running on Dem side.

Now they are more up in the air bc can express their opinion about Trump directly. Many GOP went v pro-Trump in primaries; now between a rock & hard place—putting Sen races in play.

There are a lot of Senate seats in play and House seats Dems are working to hold onto.

@celindalake's sleepers to watch:
Alyse Galvin (Alaska)
Kathleen Williams (Montana)

Both running for 2nd time + raised good money. Trump will win states, but voters there are mad at Trump.

How do Dems hold together a very broad coalition?

We work for Biden and AOC and are proud of both. @celindalake says Trump helped Dems unite wings of party. There's no question Dems across the board see this as election for soul of nation.

Also there are policies that many Dems agree on: climate change and Biden statement on fires yesterday.

Heard concerns about reaching Latino voters. How is Dem standing with these voters?

There's a lot of bad polling on Latino voters, @celindalake says. Many FL polls don't have Spanish-speaking Latinos in them. But Latinas are really on board.

Biden's strength, compassion, and faith are important in Latino community. Last straw for Latinas was Trump not listening to experts and endangering their kids this school year, @celindalake says.

Still needs to draw out his economic plan and show strength.

The secret sauce in Florida is the Puerto Rican vote, @celindalake says. Trump has been so disrespectful for that community and she reminds us that community is as big as the Cuban community in FL.

What are you seeing that is working to energize young voters?

Lifting up young candidates. Talk about #climatechange, talk about racial justice.

Remember they are not monolithic. There's an age gap. 30-39 yo hit by multiple economic crises. Need different message than under 30.

Harris as VP was a big plus for young voters. They are enthusiastic about Biden's plans but don't know them that well.

Is there a hidden Trump vote?

@celindalake believes in the hidden Trump vote. GOP convention really diminished it bc it emboldened Trump voters. Found very little hidden Trump vote in field. But also have aggressive turnout program in lower-income, lower-propensity areas.

It will be a turnout battle on both sides, @celindalake says.

Biggest 2016 lesson learned?

Don't spread yourself too thin. Get multiple paths to victory and stay focused on them. @celindalake says Biden campaign has been disciplined in that regard, picked right 6 swing states.

Biden campaign did good job of defining what race was about: leadership and character. Have powerful, emotional ads that stay on that track as they utilize different moments, @celindalake says.

THANK YOU to @celindalake for the update on the state of play 49 days out from Election Day.