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UK in a Changing Europe is an academic think tank providing impartial, research-based analysis of the critical issues facing the UK.

Sep 16, 2020, 16 tweets

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First, @BBCkatyaadler says the general consensus is that if a solution on state aid can be found - a big if - then everything else would be likely to click into place in trade negotiations. #isolationinsight

.@D0Sullivan 'Accusations of bad faith are the last refuge in trade negotiations. The EU view is that a deal is still possible ... but something broke last week that will not readily be fixed'. #isolationinsight

.@D0Sullivan 'There will be no problem with food exports from the UK to Ireland ... the EU is not asking for anything different than for any other third country'. #isolationinsight

.@BrunoBrussels: 'The issue of SPS and food standards does seem to have flared up ... but we are at that stage in talks where people throw their toys out of the pram.' #isolationinsight

.'@BrunoBrussels: 'Quota numbers for fish will always be decided last ... with listings of over 100 species affecting at least 8 member states'.

.@BBCkatyaadler 'The internal market and state aid are big problems ... but everyone needs to take a step back. The EU thinks Boris Johnson will want a deal, and the EU definitely still wants a deal'. #isolationinsight

.@anandMenon1: 'A deal is still possible. This is partly a matter of geopolitics. The spiral of mutual recriminations from no deal would sour relations with the EU and the EU27 for some time' #isolationinsight

.@BBCkatyaadler: The EU's main concern is the protection of the single market - and being seen to be protecting the single market.

@BBCkatyaadler: 'If the Internal Market Bill row is designed to create political space for the UK government to make. concessions, it is unpleasant but so be it' #isolationinsight

.@anandMenon1 'Virtually everything this government is doing at the moment is tactics. It is hard to discern the outline of strategy. It is quite reactive and doesn't seem to have thought-through, longer-term plans'. #isolationinsight

.@D0Sullivan: 'You should not underestimate the shock there is about the tactic being used ... things being said about the EU that are unfair and untrue ... and rewriting a treaty when the ink is barely dry. It was the wrong stick to try and use'. #isolationinsight

.@BrunoBrussels: 'If there is no sign of a deal by the end of October, both sides will have to start talking to each other much more frankly about what happens'. #isolationinsight

.@BBCkatyaadler: Member states are appalled by the Internal Market Bill, but are leaving Brexit in the hands of Michel Barnier for now. #isolationinsight

.@D0Sullivan: 'What I worry about is that for Brexiteers, leaving is insufficient. This worries me. One benefit of Brexit was that we do not need to have a debate with Brexiteers about how evil the EU is. We need to get to a point where we are good neighbours'. #isolationinsight

.@anandMenon1: no deal would be deeply damaging and scarring, and would have a spillover diplomatic effect beyond our relationship with the EU. And we are going to be in a long-term negotiation with the EU for many years to come. #isolationinsight

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