1) Fox confirms there is an effort by the House Freedom Caucus to convince House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) to offer a resolution to remove House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA).
This is the longest of long shots.
2) In other words, a minority caucus, inside the minority party must somehow drum up a majority of votes on the floor to remove the Speaker.
No Speaker in US history has ever faced a leadership challenge in the middle of a Congress.
3) White House Chief of Staff and former Freedom Caucus leader Mark Meadows authored a “motion to vacate the chair” against former House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) in the summer of 2015.
4) Meadows did not press the issue to force a new vote on Speaker in the middle of the Congress. But Boehner stepped down by fall.
The entire House elects the Speaker. So, a “motion to vacate the chair” would also require a majority of the House.
5) Fifteen House Democrats opposed Pelosi in her vote for Speaker in January, 2019.
The House currently has 431 members. 216 is the magic number in the House. All 198 GOPers & Rep. Justin Amash (L-MI) would need to stick together...and court 17 Democrats to vote against Pelosi.
6) As we always say, it comes down to the math, the math, the math on Capitol Hill.
Moreover, if a vote ever did come hit the floor, it’s likely the motion would not actually be on whether or not to install a new Speaker. Democrats would likely move to table or kill the motion.
7) Thus, the vote would be at least one step removed from actually voting against Pelosi.
This effort is riddled with politics on both sides.
8) The Freedom Caucus is trying to apply pressure on McCarthy to put their proposal on the floor. By the same token, GOPers often make Pelosi an issue just before the election. This strategy would accomplish just that.
9) Moreoever, the gambit could pressure moderate Democrats from swing districts to oppose Pelosi. Keep in mind that a number of those moderate members are frustrated with Pelosi over her resistance to put a scaled-down coronavirus bill on the floor.
10) That said, it’s unclear the House has the votes to approve any coronavirus measure now. It’s natural that the GOP would try to stir this up just before the election.
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