1) The Hitchhiker’s Guide on What Challenges To Expect on Capitol Hill After the Election

Truth be told, just after the election is when the hard stuff begins.

Election day is Tuesday. But in reality, that’s just the beginning of the process. It may take days to sort out who voters chose as President. Control of the House is razor tight. It may boil down to a handful of races decided by a grand total of several thousand votes. So don’t for a moment think we automatically know which party will be in the majority as election officials sort all of that out. There’s a scenario where a thin margin of contested seats in the House could spring several weeks of challenges.

Moreover, Article I, Section 5 of the Constitution dictates that the House and Senate “shall be the Judge of the elections, Returns and Qualifications of its own Members.” And it’s the new House in the new Congress next year which would decide whether or not to seat people if there’s a dispute. 2) Of course, that’s provided the House can elect a Speaker when the new Congress is Constitutionally-mandated to begin on January 3. Don’t forget that House Republicans incinerated a total of 27 days on two separate occasions to elect former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., and current Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La.

We’ll come back to that in a moment.

In the meantime, let’s run through some of the hazards which could unfold after the final ballot is cast.

Let’s start with when we might learn which party controls either the House or Senate.

Election Day fell on November 8 for the 2022 midterms. But it wasn’t clear that Democrats held their Senate majority until late on the evening of November 12 when Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., retained her seat.

Determining House control took even longer in 2022. Remember that McCarthy touted the possibility that Republicans might marshal as many as 50 seats. Republicans won the House by a thread. But the GOP majority was not clear until November 16.

A) Vance on Fox: There's a bucket of money in FEMA that's gone to illegal aliens and that's somehow separate than the bucket of money that should by right go to American citizens. I think that misses the fundamental point that the Biden-Harris administration has turned FEMA effectively into an agency that helps to resettle and helps to deal with illegal immigration that is just fundamentally going to distract focus from their core job of helping American citizens in their time of need...you should have imposed military style command and control. You've got eight different bureaucratic organizations. You've got a lot of different bureaucratic fiefdoms that sometimes delay the provision of necessary resources. You need to empower a military commander on the ground to get helicopters to where they need to go, to get supplies, to where they need to go, to cut through some of the FAA bureaucracy when it comes to, you know, planes and helicopters landing in the right place. B) Vance: It's like the DMV at industrial scale. And because a lot of folks in North Carolina are suffering unnecessarily. I hope to God you don't have unnecessary loss of life, but I fear that we do. And it all goes back to why do we have a president and a vice president, one of whom is on the beach, the other of whom is participating in fund raisers rather than doing their job. It is incompetence of the highest order.

1) Ways/Means Cmte Chair Smith First, Hunter Biden lied about the recipient of a WhatsApp message sent with the apparent intention to threaten a business associate and demand payment. In the message, Hunter Biden twice mentioned he was with his father. In the deposition, Hunter Biden sought to dismiss the message, claiming that he was either 'high or drunk' when he sent it, and in that state, had sent it to the wrong Zhao, and not actually the one affiliated with the Chinese energy company, CEFC. Hunter claimed under oath that the recipient, 'had no understanding or even remotely knew what,...I was even‚...talking about.' 2) Smith: However, phone records in front of the Committee today show Hunter Biden sent the message to the correct Chinese businessman by the name of Raymond Zhao who not only was affiliated with CEFC, but knew exactly what Hunter Biden was talking about.

1) The Hitchhiker’s Guide To How Democrats Support for Johnson Could Backfire On the Speaker

An astonishing email just hit inboxes around Capitol Hill from the House Democratic leadership team of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), House Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-MA) and House Democratic Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar (D-CA):

“We will vote to table Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Motion to Vacate the Chair. If she invokes the motion, it will not succeed.” 2) So you have DEMOCRATIC leaders telling their rank-and-file members they support short-circuiting an effort to unseat House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA).

Here’s why this is a big deal:

It was thought that House Democrats would protect Johnson in some form if Greene were to trigger her resolution. That hasn’t happened yet. But it was believed that a small number of Democrats might vote to table or kill Greene’s motion, thus protecting him. Or, Democrats might just “take a walk” during that vote, diluting the voting pool in the House. That would protect Johnson by having fewer Democrats vote. Thus, Democrats could inoculate Johnson – without ever taking a vote.

1) User's Manual to how control of the House could flip to the Democrats before the election.

Control of the House has never changed in the middle of a Congress. But if it’s going to happen, the 118th Congress is as ripe for that possibility. 2) House Republicans face chaos in their conference. Members who planned to retire next January are now ditching Capitol Hill early. The House is an acrimonious place with yet another move afoot to dethrone the Speaker.

A) From colleague Kelly Phares. There is sparring between Cotton and Tester about who is holding up an agreement to vote on the minibus spending bill. B) Off the Senate floor, the two men came face to face while speaking to separate groups of reporters. Sen Cotton yelled at Tester over all the reporters: "Why don't you ask Senator Tester why we aren't voting?"

Sen Tester yelled back: "You can ask me anything you want!"

1) There is no agreement between senators on a voting on a host of amendments related to border, migration and the Laken Riley Act. The mood in the Senate has grown increasingly dark over the past two hours and time slipping off the clock. 2) Even if the sides were to get a deal now, it would be hard to finish up before the 11:59:59 pm et deadline to align with the House.

1) Fox has learned that the Attorney General for the District of Columbia has dropped charges against Steve Nikoui for disrupting Congress during the President’s State of the Union speech earlier this month. 2) Nikoui is the father of Kareem Nikoui who was killed during the Biden Administration’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021.

Fox learned of the decision this evening. The decision to drop the charges was confirmed by the Speaker’s Office.

1) House GOP and could mean the House is down to a one-seat majority soon, not long after Buck resignation

It is ALWAYS about the math.

That is augmented by the resignation of Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO) next week. 2) Buck tells me he will remain a member until the end of the day on March 22.

That is also the deadline for the next batch of spending bills to avoid a shutdown.

Also, the GOP majority could even shrivel more before it gets better.

A) Jordan on Fox on Hur testimony: He also said that he couldn't remember when he was elected vice president, how long he served as vice president during the interview that they had over a two day time period. So the memory concerns, I think are evident. B) Jordan: The American people see that all the time. But I think there's also remember, this is over five decades. There was classified material found clear back in the early days when Joe Biden was senator from Delaware. So this is a 50 year process.

1) The Hitchhiker’s Guide To the House Passing Funding Bill Today

The House debates and votes on a “mini-bus” spending bill to fund six sections of the federal government through the end of the fiscal year. 2) This is NOT another interim spending bill. Bipartisan, bicameral Congressional leaders forged a deal on these six bills and glommed them together.

The House will debate the bill this afternoon with a vote around 4 pm et.

The bill will need two-thirds to pass.

1) User’s Manual To What Would Have To Happen To Get McConnell Out Of Leadership Early

Some Senate Republicans – and the House Freedom Caucus – are suggesting that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) step aside from his leadership post now – rather than right now. 2) It is typical for the House and Senate to have their separate, internal leadership elections after each general or midterm election, usually in November.

But here’s what would have to happen if someone wants to force the issue right away and show McConnell the door now.

1) Johnson: Despite the counterproductive rhetoric in Leader Schumer’s letter, the House has worked nonstop, and is continuing to work in good faith, to reach agreement with the Senate on compromise government funding bills in advance of the deadlines. 2) Johnson: Our position is that of the American people and our mission is to take steps to rein in Democrats’ overspending and policies that are harming the economy, raising prices, and making everyday life harder for our constituents.

1) Johnson about national security threat: I do have a statement and I'm going to be very precise and I'm not going to take questions. But last month, I sent a letter to the WH requesting a meeting with the President to discuss a serious national security issue that is classified 2) Johnson: In response to that letter, a meeting is now scheduled tomorrow on this matter here at the Capitol with the Gang of Four and with the president's national security adviser, Jake Sullivan.

1) User’s Manual to What’s Next Now That The House Impeached Mayorkas

The House has now impeached Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. 2) Think of impeachment as an indictment. It’s up to the Senate to act as a “court” and judge whether the accused is guilty of the charges in a trial.

The impeachment of cabinet officials is rare. The House has now impeached multiple Presidents and federal judges.

1) From colleague astute colleague Tyler Olson. House Democrats appear to have outwitted Republicans Tuesday – disguising their attendance numbers and convincing House Republicans they had the votes to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. In fact, they did not 2) On an unrelated vote immediately before the Mayorkas impeachment vote, 218 Republicans voted, compared to 211 Democrats. Each party had one absence.

1) Fox confirms list of Mayorkas impeachment “managers” who will prosecute the case before the Senate if Mayorkas is in fact impeached tomorrow 2) 11 House “impeachment managers.” They serve as prosecutors, making the case to the Senate in a prospective impeachment trial for DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

1) House Rules Committee to prep Mayorkas Impeachment Articles for Floor Today

The House Rules Committee meets today to prep two articles of impeachment for Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas for the floor today. 2) The committee meets at 4 pm et. Fox is told the impeachment articles is the second item on the agenda. That means the panel doesn’t deal with impeachment until 5:30 or 6 pm et. 

The section of the meeting focused on impeachment could be contentious and drift into the evening.

1) Key portion of border bill. Page 112: MANDATORY ACTIVATION.—The Secretary shall activate the border emergency authority if— ‘‘(i) during a period of 7 consecutive calendar days, there is an average of 5,000 or more aliens who are encountered each day; 2) Border bill: or ‘‘(ii) on any 1 calendar day, a combined total of 8,500 or more aliens are en10 countered. ‘‘(C) CALCULATION OF ACTIVATION.— ‘‘(i) IN GENERAL.—For purposes of subparagraphs (A) and (B), the average for the applicable 7-day period shall be calculated using.. ‘

1) Senate border bill negotiators are racing to try to get bill text out today. Fox is told that the bill has been “stitched together” and there is a read through today for everyone to make sure the bill is in the form they want it to be. 2) Fox is told that the border/immigration section is complete. But they are trying to make sure everything is in order on the national security portion which provides aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.

1) Fox is told that the border security/immigration bill is still not finished. No bill text today 2) Tomorrow is going to be a critical day on the future of border talks which have dragged on for weeks now. Remember, there was even chatter of the Senate considering a border bill in mid-December.