1) User’s Manual to Certifying the Election Results
 
The House and Senate meet Monday in a Joint Session of Congress to certify the results of the 2024 presidential vote.
 
The Capitol riot and contretemps over certification of the 2020 presidential election converted the quadrennial, often sleepy affair of certifying the Electoral College into a full-blown national security event. Congressional security officials began erecting 10-foot high fencing around the outer perimeter of the Capitol complex over the past few days. Some of the fences extend beyond the usual “Capitol Square” which includes the Capitol building itself. One such fence was all the way around the outer boundaries of the Russell Senate Park.
 
One of the great ironies in the American political system is that the person who lost the race for the presidency often presides over their own defeat. In this case, Vice President Harris. Harris remains the Vice President until January 20. That also means she continues as President of the Senate.
 
Others have performed this onerous task of certifying their own defeat. Future President Richard Nixon was Vice President when he lost to President John F. Kennedy in 1960. Nixon then certified JFK as the winner in January, 1961. Former Vice President Al Gore ceded his election to President George W. Bush after the disputed 2000 election and tumult over which candidate actually won Florida. Gore then was at the Capitol to seal Bush’s victory in January, 2001. 2) Here's what the 12th Amendment to the Constitution says about Congress signing off on the election results:
 
“The President of the Senate shall, in the presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the certificates and the votes shall then be counted.”
 
This dictates a Joint Session of Congress. This is where the House and Senate meet together, simultaneously, usually in the House chamber. The Speaker of the House presides alongside the President of the Senate: in this case, Vice President Harris.
 
But Harris kind of runs the show.
 
The House and Senate only meet in a Joint Session of Congress to receive the President for State of the Union and to certify the election outcome. And since the House successfully elected a Speaker on Friday afternoon, the House and Senate can convene the Joint Session. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., will co-preside over the session atop the dais in the House chamber.
 
Things are different compared to this exercise four years ago.
 
The relatively routine, almost ceremonial certification of the Electoral College forever changed on January 6, 2021, following the Capitol riot.
 
Capitol Police begin restricting vehicular traffic on streets around the Capitol complex early Monday morning. Access to the House and Senate Office Buildings are limited to Members, staff and visitors who are there are on official business. There will only be a few access points for pedestrians to the Capitol grounds. Official Capitol tours are suspended.
 
Johnson will call the House to order around 1 pm et on Monday. House Sergeant at Arms Bill McFarland will announce the arrival of Harris and senators as they enter the House chamber. Members of the House Administration Committee and Senate Rules Committee will serve as “tellers” to assist in the tabulation of the electoral votes.
 
Harris will declare that the House and Senate are meeting in the Joint Session and announce “that the certificates (of election) are authentic and correct in form.”
 
Starting with Alabama, it’s likely that one of the tellers will read the following:
 
“The certificate of the electoral vote of the state of Alabama seems to be regular in form and authentic. It appears therefore that Donald John Trump of the State of Florida received nine votes for President and JD Vance of the state of Ohio received nine votes for Vice President.”
 
And on we go.
 
In late 2022, lawmakers made several changes to the 1887 “Electoral Count Act.” Congress initially passed the Electoral Count Act in response to the disputed election of 1876. Multiple states sent competing slates of electors to Washington. Lawmakers determined there was no formality to tabulating the Electoral College results.
 
Democrat Samuel Tilden prevailed in the popular vote. But President Rutherford B. Hayes won the White House – after a special commission empaneled by Congress presented him with 20 electoral votes in dispute.
 
The 2022 Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act clarified the role of the Vice President in the Joint Session of Congress. President-elect Trump and other loyalists leaned on then-Vice President Pence to assert himself in the process. Many demanded that he accept alternative slates of electors from states in question. The updated law states that the Vice President’s role is simply “ministerial.” The new statute says the Vice President lacks the power “to determine, accept, reject, or otherwise adjudicate or resolve disputes over the proper list of electors, the validity of electors, or the votes of electors.”
 
The new law also established an expedited judicial appellate process for litigation regarding electoral votes. Finally, the law altered how lawmakers themselves can contest a state’s slate of electors during the Joint Session.

1) The Hitchhiker’s Guide to Electing a House Speaker
 
The Constitution dictates that the 119th Congress begins at noonet on Friday.
 
And the first order of business in the House is to elect the Constitutional officer for the legislative branch of government: Speaker of the House.
 
Only the House votes for Speaker. And the House can’t do anything – I’ll repeat that, anything – until it chooses a Speaker.
 
It can’t swear-in Members until the House taps a Speaker and he or she is sworn-in. The Speaker then swears-in the rest of the body, en masse. Then the House must adopt a rules package to govern daily operations. Only then can the House go about debating bills, voting and constructing committees for hearings.
 
If the House fails to elect a Speaker on the first ballot, it must proceed to a second ballot.
 
And on and on.
 
Consider for a moment that the House had never even taken a second vote for Speaker in a century before the donnybrook two years ago. It took four ballots to re-elect late House Speaker Frederick Gillett, R-Mass., in 1923.
 
What is past is prologue for the House. Consider how the House consumed 15 rounds spread out over five days before electing former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., in January, 2023. The Speakership remained vacant – and thus, the House frozen – for 22 days after Republicans dumped McCarthy nine months later. House Republicans then tapped House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., for Speaker. Scalise withdrew his name before there was even a floor vote. House GOPers then tapped Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, to become Speaker. But Jordan lost three consecutive votes for Speaker on the House floor, bleeding support on each ballot. House Republicans then anointed House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., for Speaker. Emmer withdrew hours later. 2) House Republicans finally nominated House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., for the job. The Louisiana Republican won on the floor. But some conservatives have been disappointed in Johnson ever since. They’ve flagged how he handled multiple, interim spending bills from last November on. They didn’t like that he allowed a bill on the floor to aid Ukraine. They opposed him doing yet another interim spending bill in September. They really didn’t like how he worked with Democrats on major, must-do pieces of legislation. And then there was the misstep of the staggering, 1,500-page interim spending package which Mr. Trump and Elon Musk pulverized from afar in December. Johnson then did President-elect Trump’s bidding with another spending package – which included a debt ceiling increase. But 38 House Republicans bolted on that bill.
 
So Johnson’s tenure has been bumpy. And that’s why he’s on the hook come Friday afternoon during the vote for Speaker. Everyone on Capitol Hill is on tenterhooks when it comes to wrapping this up expeditiously.
 
Here’s what will happen Friday at noon:
 
Acting House Clerk Kevin McCumber will preside until the House elects a Speaker. The first order of business is a “call of the House.” That’s where the House establishes how many of its Members-elect are there, simply voting “present.” The House should clock in at 434 members: 219 Republicans and 215 Democrats. There should be one vacancy. Former Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., resigned in the fall – and said he did not “intend” to serve in the new Congress, despite having won reelection.
 
Watch to see if there are absences in that call of the House. Fox is told that Democrats who have struggled with health issues of late – including Reps. Raul Grijalva, D-Ariz., Dwight Evans, D-Penn., and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., will likely be there. But the Speaker’s election is about the math. How many lawmakers report to the House chamber will dictate margins in the Speaker’s vote.
 
Then it’s on to nominating speeches. Incoming House Republican Conference Chairwoman Lisa McClain, R-Mich., will nominate Johnson for Speaker. House Democratic Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar, D-Calif., will nominate House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y. Anyone else can then place someone’s name in nomination.
 
Then, the House calls the roll of Members-elect alphabetically. Each Member rises and verbally responds, calling out their choice by name. Reps. Alma Adams, D-N.C., Robert Aderholt, R-Ala., and the aforementioned Aguilar are the first names out of the block.
 
But lawmakers can vote for anyone they want. That includes persons who aren’t House Members. That’s why there have been votes cast over the years for the late Gen. Colin Powell, Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., former Sen. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala., and former U.S. Comptroller General David Walker.
 
This is what Johnson – or anyone else must do – to win the Speakership:
 
The winning candidate must secure an outright majority of all Members voting for a candidate by name.

1) The Hitchhiker’s Guide to Failing to Elect a House Speaker Quickly

The problem has been percolating for a while.

It’s been subterranean. Lurking underneath the surface. Not necessarily perceptible.

Except to those who follow Congress closely.

But the issue gurgled to the top since the House stumbled badly trying to avert a government shutdown last week.

To wit:

Congress spasmed between a staggering, 1,500-page spending bill. Then defeated a narrow, 116-page bill – which President-elect Trump endorsed. Things got worse when the House only commandeered a scant 174 yeas for the Trump-supported bill and 38 Republicans voted nay. Circumstances grew even more dire when the House actually voted to avert a holiday government shutdown – but passed the bill with more Democrats (196) than Republicans (170). 34 GOPers voted nay.

It was long likely that House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., might face a problem winning the Speaker’s gavel immediately when the new Congress convenes at noon et on January 3. Congressional experts knew that Johnson could be in trouble once the contours of the reed-thin House majority came into focus weeks after the November election. This could blossom into a full-blown crisis for Johnson – and House Republicans –when the Speaker’s vote commences a little after 1 pm et next Friday. 2) Johnson emerges bruised from last week’s government funding donnybrook. Anywhere from four to ten Republicans could oppose Johnson in the Speaker’s race.

Here’s the math:

The House clocks in at 434 members with one vacancy. That’s thanks to former Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla. He resigned his position for this Congress a few weeks ago. Even though Gaetz won re-election in November, his resignation letter – read on the floor of the House – signaled he did not plan to serve in the new Congress which begins in January.

This is the breakdown when the Congress starts: 219 Republicans to 214 Democrats.

President-elect Trump’s pick for National Security Advisor, Rep. Michael Waltz, R-Fla., remains in the House for now. So does Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y. Mr. Trump tapped her to serve as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. That’s pending Senate confirmation – perhaps in late January or early February. Once Waltz and Stefanik resign, the GOP majority dwindles to 217-214.

But the Speaker’s election on January 3 poses a special challenge. Here’s the bar for Johnson - or any one else: The Speaker of the House must win an outright majority of all Members casting ballots for someone by name. In other words, the person with the most votes does not win. That’s what happened repeatedly to former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., when he routinely outpolled House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., for Speaker to begin this Congress in January 2023. But it took days for McCarthy to cross the proper threshold.

More on that in a moment.

1) The Hitchhiker’s Guide on What Challenges To Expect on Capitol Hill After the Election

Truth be told, just after the election is when the hard stuff begins.

Election day is Tuesday. But in reality, that’s just the beginning of the process. It may take days to sort out who voters chose as President. Control of the House is razor tight. It may boil down to a handful of races decided by a grand total of several thousand votes. So don’t for a moment think we automatically know which party will be in the majority as election officials sort all of that out. There’s a scenario where a thin margin of contested seats in the House could spring several weeks of challenges.

Moreover, Article I, Section 5 of the Constitution dictates that the House and Senate “shall be the Judge of the elections, Returns and Qualifications of its own Members.” And it’s the new House in the new Congress next year which would decide whether or not to seat people if there’s a dispute. 2) Of course, that’s provided the House can elect a Speaker when the new Congress is Constitutionally-mandated to begin on January 3. Don’t forget that House Republicans incinerated a total of 27 days on two separate occasions to elect former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., and current Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La.

We’ll come back to that in a moment.

In the meantime, let’s run through some of the hazards which could unfold after the final ballot is cast.

Let’s start with when we might learn which party controls either the House or Senate.

Election Day fell on November 8 for the 2022 midterms. But it wasn’t clear that Democrats held their Senate majority until late on the evening of November 12 when Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., retained her seat.

Determining House control took even longer in 2022. Remember that McCarthy touted the possibility that Republicans might marshal as many as 50 seats. Republicans won the House by a thread. But the GOP majority was not clear until November 16.

A) Vance on Fox: There's a bucket of money in FEMA that's gone to illegal aliens and that's somehow separate than the bucket of money that should by right go to American citizens. I think that misses the fundamental point that the Biden-Harris administration has turned FEMA effectively into an agency that helps to resettle and helps to deal with illegal immigration that is just fundamentally going to distract focus from their core job of helping American citizens in their time of need...you should have imposed military style command and control. You've got eight different bureaucratic organizations. You've got a lot of different bureaucratic fiefdoms that sometimes delay the provision of necessary resources. You need to empower a military commander on the ground to get helicopters to where they need to go, to get supplies, to where they need to go, to cut through some of the FAA bureaucracy when it comes to, you know, planes and helicopters landing in the right place. B) Vance: It's like the DMV at industrial scale. And because a lot of folks in North Carolina are suffering unnecessarily. I hope to God you don't have unnecessary loss of life, but I fear that we do. And it all goes back to why do we have a president and a vice president, one of whom is on the beach, the other of whom is participating in fund raisers rather than doing their job. It is incompetence of the highest order.

1) Ways/Means Cmte Chair Smith First, Hunter Biden lied about the recipient of a WhatsApp message sent with the apparent intention to threaten a business associate and demand payment. In the message, Hunter Biden twice mentioned he was with his father. In the deposition, Hunter Biden sought to dismiss the message, claiming that he was either 'high or drunk' when he sent it, and in that state, had sent it to the wrong Zhao, and not actually the one affiliated with the Chinese energy company, CEFC. Hunter claimed under oath that the recipient, 'had no understanding or even remotely knew what,...I was even‚...talking about.' 2) Smith: However, phone records in front of the Committee today show Hunter Biden sent the message to the correct Chinese businessman by the name of Raymond Zhao who not only was affiliated with CEFC, but knew exactly what Hunter Biden was talking about.

1) The Hitchhiker’s Guide To How Democrats Support for Johnson Could Backfire On the Speaker

An astonishing email just hit inboxes around Capitol Hill from the House Democratic leadership team of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), House Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-MA) and House Democratic Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar (D-CA):

“We will vote to table Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Motion to Vacate the Chair. If she invokes the motion, it will not succeed.” 2) So you have DEMOCRATIC leaders telling their rank-and-file members they support short-circuiting an effort to unseat House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA).

Here’s why this is a big deal:

It was thought that House Democrats would protect Johnson in some form if Greene were to trigger her resolution. That hasn’t happened yet. But it was believed that a small number of Democrats might vote to table or kill Greene’s motion, thus protecting him. Or, Democrats might just “take a walk” during that vote, diluting the voting pool in the House. That would protect Johnson by having fewer Democrats vote. Thus, Democrats could inoculate Johnson – without ever taking a vote.

1) User's Manual to how control of the House could flip to the Democrats before the election.

Control of the House has never changed in the middle of a Congress. But if it’s going to happen, the 118th Congress is as ripe for that possibility. 2) House Republicans face chaos in their conference. Members who planned to retire next January are now ditching Capitol Hill early. The House is an acrimonious place with yet another move afoot to dethrone the Speaker.

A) From colleague Kelly Phares. There is sparring between Cotton and Tester about who is holding up an agreement to vote on the minibus spending bill. B) Off the Senate floor, the two men came face to face while speaking to separate groups of reporters. Sen Cotton yelled at Tester over all the reporters: "Why don't you ask Senator Tester why we aren't voting?"

Sen Tester yelled back: "You can ask me anything you want!"

1) There is no agreement between senators on a voting on a host of amendments related to border, migration and the Laken Riley Act. The mood in the Senate has grown increasingly dark over the past two hours and time slipping off the clock. 2) Even if the sides were to get a deal now, it would be hard to finish up before the 11:59:59 pm et deadline to align with the House.

1) Fox has learned that the Attorney General for the District of Columbia has dropped charges against Steve Nikoui for disrupting Congress during the President’s State of the Union speech earlier this month. 2) Nikoui is the father of Kareem Nikoui who was killed during the Biden Administration’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021.

Fox learned of the decision this evening. The decision to drop the charges was confirmed by the Speaker’s Office.

1) House GOP and could mean the House is down to a one-seat majority soon, not long after Buck resignation

It is ALWAYS about the math.

That is augmented by the resignation of Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO) next week. 2) Buck tells me he will remain a member until the end of the day on March 22.

That is also the deadline for the next batch of spending bills to avoid a shutdown.

Also, the GOP majority could even shrivel more before it gets better.

A) Jordan on Fox on Hur testimony: He also said that he couldn't remember when he was elected vice president, how long he served as vice president during the interview that they had over a two day time period. So the memory concerns, I think are evident. B) Jordan: The American people see that all the time. But I think there's also remember, this is over five decades. There was classified material found clear back in the early days when Joe Biden was senator from Delaware. So this is a 50 year process.

1) The Hitchhiker’s Guide To the House Passing Funding Bill Today

The House debates and votes on a “mini-bus” spending bill to fund six sections of the federal government through the end of the fiscal year. 2) This is NOT another interim spending bill. Bipartisan, bicameral Congressional leaders forged a deal on these six bills and glommed them together.

The House will debate the bill this afternoon with a vote around 4 pm et.

The bill will need two-thirds to pass.

1) User’s Manual To What Would Have To Happen To Get McConnell Out Of Leadership Early

Some Senate Republicans – and the House Freedom Caucus – are suggesting that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) step aside from his leadership post now – rather than right now. 2) It is typical for the House and Senate to have their separate, internal leadership elections after each general or midterm election, usually in November.

But here’s what would have to happen if someone wants to force the issue right away and show McConnell the door now.

1) Johnson: Despite the counterproductive rhetoric in Leader Schumer’s letter, the House has worked nonstop, and is continuing to work in good faith, to reach agreement with the Senate on compromise government funding bills in advance of the deadlines. 2) Johnson: Our position is that of the American people and our mission is to take steps to rein in Democrats’ overspending and policies that are harming the economy, raising prices, and making everyday life harder for our constituents.

1) Johnson about national security threat: I do have a statement and I'm going to be very precise and I'm not going to take questions. But last month, I sent a letter to the WH requesting a meeting with the President to discuss a serious national security issue that is classified 2) Johnson: In response to that letter, a meeting is now scheduled tomorrow on this matter here at the Capitol with the Gang of Four and with the president's national security adviser, Jake Sullivan.

1) User’s Manual to What’s Next Now That The House Impeached Mayorkas

The House has now impeached Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. 2) Think of impeachment as an indictment. It’s up to the Senate to act as a “court” and judge whether the accused is guilty of the charges in a trial.

The impeachment of cabinet officials is rare. The House has now impeached multiple Presidents and federal judges.

1) From colleague astute colleague Tyler Olson. House Democrats appear to have outwitted Republicans Tuesday – disguising their attendance numbers and convincing House Republicans they had the votes to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. In fact, they did not 2) On an unrelated vote immediately before the Mayorkas impeachment vote, 218 Republicans voted, compared to 211 Democrats. Each party had one absence.

1) Fox confirms list of Mayorkas impeachment “managers” who will prosecute the case before the Senate if Mayorkas is in fact impeached tomorrow 2) 11 House “impeachment managers.” They serve as prosecutors, making the case to the Senate in a prospective impeachment trial for DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

1) House Rules Committee to prep Mayorkas Impeachment Articles for Floor Today

The House Rules Committee meets today to prep two articles of impeachment for Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas for the floor today. 2) The committee meets at 4 pm et. Fox is told the impeachment articles is the second item on the agenda. That means the panel doesn’t deal with impeachment until 5:30 or 6 pm et. 

The section of the meeting focused on impeachment could be contentious and drift into the evening.