Convective weather models and smoke: A Thread!
Situations involving the potential for thunderstorms and the backdrop of thick smoke are complicated for a few reasons! The first being that most convective models do not consider smoke in their initialization. #wawx
So you may be looking at the latest HRRR run thinking, it looks like there could be a chance for some t-storm activity to make its way into the area! There is still a chance, but with smoke, you have to interpret the model with a grain of salt so to speak. #wawx
If there was no smoke at all in the area, we would think differently about this set up and what it would mean for thunder in our area. Thick smoke doesn't help thunderstorms develop in most cases. #wawx
That being said, there are some larger scale dynamics working in our favor, like elevated instability & a favorable wind profile. It is definitely a situation that we're watching closely, but it's also a very fluid situation. In my opinion, its the fun part of the job! #wawx
Let us know what questions you may have and we will do our best to provide an answer! #wawx
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