In one sense nothing has happened in UK-EU talks for months - it is still about whether the PM wants the deal that is on offer and has been since the start of talks - FTA with Level Playing Field (but not dymamic alignment).
What I particularly don't know is if Number 10 has yet understood that the deal they want is not on offer, however hard they bang the table. I think not, and they are happy to keep holding out for this believing in any case no deal isn't a major problem.
At the end of the day, the PM has to make the decision. Generally he'd prefer to be the hero. But repeating the trick of last year, of signing up to the EU's deal and pretending it is his, might not be so easy this time. It is on matters like this that the EU FTA rides.
Extreme summary - there is no risk free EU option for the PM - either anger the Brexiters by backing down however disguised, or risk the economy and particularly the red wall / automotive sector through no deal. Choose.
This possibility is seriously underpriced among all those saying the PM wants a deal.
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