Thread by @BeirutCalling

I’m puzzled as to why everyone is saying the French initiative is dead. Yes it looks like blockages everywhere, but the strategic picture is fundamental here. First, whether a government is formed by Adib or not, Lebanon has to form a government anyway today.

So why would Hezbollah do so later and miss the political advantages of doing so under France’s plan? Second, a generalized financial collapse if no deal is struck harms Hezbollah’s strategic interests. It would destabilize Lebanon, weakening the party’s ability to defend Iran.

This is all the more urgent as Israel has just concluded peace deals with the UAE and Bahrain, which would facilitate any Israeli military operation against Iran. Hezbollah cannot afford to be neutralized domestically in such a volatile regional context.

It’s virtually certain that Hezbollah will get the Finance Ministry. The French approved of this. All that most Lebanese parties, including several Hezbollah allies, are asking for is its acceptance of the principle of a rotation of portfolios. Can the Shia parties reject this?

Can the Shia parties bring the Lebanese house down and create a domestic situation that would effectively be a boon to Israel, all to impose the idea that the Finance Ministry has to remain indefinitely in Shia hands? I don’t think so.

We’re still in the midst of a strategy of brinksmanship by Hezbollah and Amal. They want more. But the idea that the French plan is dead makes little sense to me, especially when Hezbollah and the French believe that U.S. sanctions were aimed at undermining the French initiative.

Internally, the Shia parties are isolated in their position. If Aoun were to accept Adib’s government and push it to parliament, a majority could probably vote for it. No one wants to approve of a government without Shia backing, but the numbers may be there.

But domestic isolation is not where Hezbollah wants to be at a time of major regional change that threatens Iran. It cannot afford a conflict with Israel if most Lebanese parties disagree with its position. That is why there may be movement on the government in the coming days.

This analysis may be mistaken. Some have cited Haniyeh’s presence in Lebanon as a sign of Iranian opposition to the French plan. Maybe, but if so Iran has created a new reality that will please Israel. Hezbollah will be isolated domestically and neutralized in a war with Israel.