Something tells me I need to read this pronto...
I actually already wrote an in-depth thing about @sarahkliff’s individual mandate story back in January: acasignups.net/20/01/15/was-i…
In addition to many other points I cover, it’s important to remember that the third leg of the stool may have been cut off, but it was also immediately replaced by the World’s Most Expensive Shim...in the form of ~$5 billion/year in additional subsidies to cover the rate hikes.
It’s also important to note that states covering about ~15% of the individual market *reinstated* the penalty after it was zeroed out, so only ~85% of it was actually effectively eliminated. That makes it even less clear how effective or not it’s been.
In addition, as @bjdickmayhew notes, the advent of #SilverLoading also significantly mitigated some of the premium pricing damage which otherwise would have resulted in more people dropping coverage...by effectively increasing subsidies even more: balloon-juice.com/2020/09/18/no-…
As I noted in my piece, the great irony of the GOP zeroing out the federal mandate penalty is that in doing so, they actually made Obamacare MORE like the ORIGINAL Obamacare. Remember, Obama argued AGAINST a penalty during the 2008 primaries, though he later came around.
Also, as @clinkeyoung highlighted the other day, the mandate penalty served/serves another important function: It discourages people from enrolling in junk plans, since doing so DIDN’T get you off the hook for paying the penalty (with some exceptions): gao.gov/mobile/product…
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