Here's an updated version of my "Dem Stop the Steal!" conspiracy theory thread which hopefully is less scattershot.

There's 3 main claims:

1. "How could there be 20M fewer voters than in 2020 w/"record-breaking turnout?"

2. "How could 15M fewer voter for Harris vs. Biden?" 3. "How could so many swing state voters vote for the Dem for Senate but not for Harris for POTUS?"

There's a few others, but these are the biggest ones, so let's tackle them first:

Yesterday I posted a thread digging into the actual data behind the "20M missing votes!" and "15M fewer than Biden!" conspiracy theories being tossed around the past few days.

I've updated my spreadsheet using the latest data from CNN:
cnn.com/election/2024/… Short Version:

Via CNN, as of this writing, total 2024 POTUS votes are only down 13.9 million vs. 2020...with a likely 11.5 - 12.0 million ballots still to be counted across 30 states.

Total 2024 turnout will likely be ~156M or so...just a couple million fewer than 2020.

As the guy who obsessed over precisely this data for nearly 3 years, let me address this:

My best estimate is that around 150,000 more Trump 2020 voters than Biden 2020 voters died between Nov. 2020 & Nov. 2022.

That's a lot of people. HOWEVER... 1/

acasignups.net/22/09/17/eleph… ...the vast majority of this discrepancy happened in districts/counties which were heavily red to begin with, which is why the MAGA COVID Death Cult factor only ended up making a decisive difference in exactly one statewide race: Arizona Attorney General:
acasignups.net/22/12/29/updat…

People have started asking why I'm still pushing fundraising for Dems just 5 days before Election Day. All the ad time has been purchased & the lit pieces printed & mailed out already, right?

There's several reasons: 1/ 1. For state legislative races in particular, a last-minute cash infusion of even $50 can mean an extra few pizzas for tired & hungry canvassers or an extra burner phone for phone banking.

Blue24.org/state-leg

🧵THE DEAD POOL: Since @MikeJohnson and @JDVance are promising to Concentrate folks w/pre-existing conditions into separate Camps, let's talk about that. 1/
acasignups.net/24/10/04/dead-… Let's go back to the pre-ACA healthcare landscape. This is what it looked like in 2012...*before* the ACA's major provisions went into effect.

Half the US had employer coverage. Another third had Medicare or Medicaid. ~11M had "individual" insurance; ~48M had nothing at all. 2/

(sigh) OK, here we go again: Trump's Butler, PA rally crowd size.

Here's the best aerial view shot I've seen of the crowd at its peak. (the arrow shows the stage). 1/ A standard dry U.S. trailer van is around 53' long. 2/
schneiderjobs.com/blog/semi-truc…

🧵📣 THE DEAD POOL: Since @JDVance wants to Concentrate folks w/pre-existing conditions into separate Camps, let's talk about it. 1/

acasignups.net/24/10/02/dead-… Let's go back to the pre-ACA healthcare landscape. This is what it looked like in 2012...*before* the ACA's major provisions went into effect.

Half the US had employer coverage. Another third had Medicare or Medicaid. ~11M had "individual" insurance; ~48M had nothing at all. 2/

OH DEAR GOD.

This LITERALLY DEFEATS THE ENTIRE CONCEPT OF HEALTH INSURANCE: SHARED RISK.

https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/1836523438283874402

AGAIN: This graph is the single most important explainer of how risk pools work & the dangers of separating people out into risk pools based on their CURRENT health.

5% of the population racks up over 50% of total healthcare spending.

So, VP @KamalaHarris has posted her official policy agenda on her campaign website. The healthcare section includes, among other solid items, making the enhanced #ACA subsidies of the IRA permanent.

Here's an idea of how important this is for over 21 MILLION Americans: 1/ The enhanced subsidies are currently scheduled to sunset at the end of 2025. If they aren't extended, they'll revert back to the original formula, which was good for those earning < 200% FPL, but mediocre for those earning 200 - 400% & NONEXISTENT for those earning over 400% FPL.

This is a Big Fucking Deal, brought to you by the Inflation Reduction Act, passed by Democrats exclusively and signed into law by President Biden.

Every Republican in Congress voted against it.

https://twitter.com/ap/status/1824012714110288165

The Inflation Reduction Act is also the reason over 20 million #ACA enrollees are saving an average of $800/yr on health insurance premiums.

Unfortunately that provision is scheduled to sunset at the end of 2025 unless legislation is passed to make the savings permanent.

Folks, donating to #HarrisWalz2024 is fine, but we REALLY need to focus on DOWNBALLOT races as well!

Here's how much I've raised for Harris/Walz vs. ~70 House/Senate races & ~700 State Legislative races.

Pick a page, pick some candidates & donate at . Blue24.org
Here's my Senate page where you can donate DIRECTLY to @RubenGallego, @DebbieforFL, @AlsobrooksForMD, @ElissaSlotkin, @jontester, @RosenforNevada, @SherrodBrown, @Bob_Casey, @ColinAllredTX & @tammybaldwin, as well as up to 10 other Senate Dem nominees:

.secure.actblue.com/donate/senateb…

🔥 Guys...donating to #HarrisWalz2024 is fine, but we REALLY need to focus DOWN BALLOT as well! 1/ As my followers know, I've set up a simple website at which contains pages to donate DIRECTLY to *hundreds* of Democrats running for *competitive* seats in everything from State Legislature to U.S. Senate. 2/Blue24.org

This.

My main concern wasn’t about her personally (I actually supported her over Biden back in 2019); it was more about whether they could make the transition without it turning into a mess. So far they’ve pulled it off nearly perfectly.

https://twitter.com/jewishwonk/status/1817572730272907426

Biden's timing was perfect:

1. He waited until after the RNC, which meant they wasted 4 days of prime time hours attacking an opponent who wasn't their opponent.

2. This also meant he waited until Trump & Vance were (effectively) locked in as the GOP nominees.

continued...

With early voting starting in just 65 days in a few states, David asked this very reasonable question. I'm not an expert, but my general understanding of the situation is this: 1/

https://twitter.com/davaldod/status/1813559609820664020

There've been a number of polls claiming that Harris/etc. would perform a few points better...but that's all THEORETICAL.

We all know that the moment it became a reality the numbers could change dramatically...especially given all the other chaos which would surround it. 2/

Thread. ~20 years ago, one of the minor controversies surrounding then-President George W. Bush was after being warned that something he wanted to do was unconstitutional, he allegedly angrily replied that the Constitution is "just a damned piece of paper!" 1/

https://twitter.com/dcpetterson/status/1808901074151166072

I don't know whether this actually happened or not, but regardless of how appalling it my is, on the most basic level that's actually *correct*: The Constitution *in and of itself* *is* "just a damned peice of paper." It's not a talisman. It doesn't have any magical powers. 2/

🧵 I just had a lengthy conversation with someone who wanted some insight as to how I've been so successful with my Democratic fundraising project over the past few cycles.

(obviously it wasn't called that in 2020 or 2022) 1/Blue24.org For those unaware, I've raised nearly $8 MILLION *directly* for hundreds of Democratic candidates since 2019. And I've done it *without* a mailing list or texting anyone. I've done it without a PAC or a staff.

It's all been done purely online via social media. 2/

ELECTIONS. HAVE. CONSEQUENCES.

WE SCREAMED ABOUT SCOTUS FROM THE TOP OF OUR LUNGS IN 2016 AND Y'ALL SHRUGGED IT OFF.

NOW WE'RE FACING THE CONSEQUENCES.

Biden is appointing judges at a furious pace, but our ONLY shot at fixing SCOTUS is to re-elect Biden & keep Senate control.

https://twitter.com/stealthygeek/status/1807081998336303163

"So if we do that, Biden fixes SCOTUS?"

I said it's our only *chance* of doing so. It would also require, within the next 4 years, either:

1. Both Alito & Thomas retire (hah) or pass away.

Or...

2. Congress passes legislation to either expand or otherwise modify SCOTUS.

🚨 STATE BY STATE: How much more will YOU pay if enhanced #ACA subsidies aren't extended? (Massachusetts - Missouri):

acasignups.net/24/06/27/state… The original ACA subsidy formula was decent at low incomes, stingy at moderate incomes & nonexistent at middle class incomes.

ARPA/IRA had solid subsidy upgrades, bringing them up to where they should have been in the first place...but they're scheduled to revert in 2026. 2/

As someone pushing HARD for folks to donate to Democrats up & down the ballot, I’d like to note something about the AIPAC money brouhaha re NY-16.

Yes, money CAN make a significant difference in a race, but only up to a point. After that there’s diminishing returns. 1/ My guess is the first few million dollars AIPAC spent on the NY-16 race probably helped Latimer by a point or two. After that, however, it probably didn’t make much difference at all & may have even hurt him a bit due to residents getting sick of the constant ads/mailers etc. 2/

🧵 EV Infrastructure Update:

I just returned from my 4th road trip from Detroit to DC & back over the past 2 years. Since it's the same route each time I have a pretty apples to apples comparison on EV public chargers over time. 1/ The good news is that it looks like Electrify America, which makes up most of the chargers along the route (I-275/280, I-80/90 (OH Turnpike), I-70/270 (PA Turnpike), seems to be in the process of upgrading their charging stations; the newer ones seem to be more reliable. 2/

Since partisan COVID death rates are back in the news again today, a reminder that ~150,000 *more* Trump voters died of COVID between the 2020 - 2022 elections than Biden voters due *specifically* to GOP/FOX/MAGA pushing antivax/anti-mitigation narratives.
acasignups.net/22/09/17/eleph… Re. electoral impact, there was only one statewide race in which the GOP COVID Death Cult factor made a decisive difference:

In AZ, 900 - 4,100 more Trump voters died of COVID between Nov. 2020 - Nov. 2022.

AG Kris Mayes won her race by 280 votes.

acasignups.net/22/12/29/updat…