In one of the cases the a jewelry store was trying to stiff the web designer they had hired. I was retained by the law firm representing the web designer. Fortunately, it was absurdly clear cut and the jewelry store lost.
Nov 23 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
For the love of god, people, use your heads.
If 100% of the population was vaccinated and there was even a single COVID death, you could accurately say that "100% of new COVID deaths were among those vaccinated."
FWIW, while COVID deaths are down dramatically nationally (averaging around ~320/day now) and the Red/Blue divide has narrowed substantially, they're still running over 70% higher in the reddest decile of the U.S. than the bluest decile.
Nov 14 • 17 tweets • 8 min read
📣 I know I've already posted these links several times, but I still keep seeing people asking "has anyone looked into whether the #GOPCovidDeathCult had a decisive impact on any midterm races, so once again, here you go:
In case folks have forgotten, there's still a chance Democrats flipped the Arizona State Senate...
And Dems also have a shot at flipping the Arizona State House as well.
It's unlikely, but conceivable that Dems managed to squeak out a trifecta in Arizona!
Nov 13 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
Out of curiosity, I decided to take a look at how some of the long shot Senate races which there had been some minor buzz about ended up going.
In Missouri, there was hope that a beer fortune heiress billionaire might be competitive. She wasn't.
In Indiana, there were a couple of polls showing Tom McDermott might be competitive. He wasn't.
(again, this isn't a reflection on the candidates themselves, just about the state they ran in).
Nov 13 • 8 tweets • 5 min read
I posted a long thread about this yesterday but here again is my analysis of the possible impact of the #GOPCovidDeathCult on House races: 1/
In short, there’s really only a dozen races where the GOP candidate *might* end up losing by less than the #GOPCovidDeathCult margin, which ranges from 0 - 600 votes in these 20 races (some of which have already been called since yesterday). 2/
Nov 12 • 13 tweets • 6 min read
📣📣 A few days ago I posted my analysis of whether the GOP's COVID Death Cult 💀 is likely to be the decisive factor in any *statewide* races. My conclusion was that #NVSenate is the most likely candidate for this (& potentially #AZGov, #AZAG & the upcoming #GASenate Runoff). 1/
I estimate that *if* CCM ends up winning the #NVSenate race by less than ~2,400 votes, there's a very strong argument to be made that the GOP COVID Death Cult is what made the difference.
The same applies if Dems win #AZGov or #AZAG by less than ~4,100 votes. 2/
Nov 11 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
House state of play (h/t @Taniel & @Fritschner; I just gussied up the table a bit, including adding the current vote margins & % reported via the NY Times).
If Dems hold all seats they're currently leading in *and* flip 5 of the 10 currently w/GOP leading, they get to 218.
Whoops...the margin cell for MD-06 should be orange instead of blue...but it's my understanding that that one is expected to flip blue soon anyway...
Nov 11 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Latest Arizona numbers via @NYTimes...all 4 Dems are slowly padding their leads...
Latest Nevada numbers via @NYTimes...no change to AG or SOS, but Gov & Senate inched towards Dems some more. #NXP
Nov 9 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
📣 Now that it's no longer theoretical, several people have asked the "Elephant in the Room" question: Did the higher GOP COVID death rate, due to their dramatically higher refusal to wear masks, socially distance or get vaccinated, impact any races? 1/ acasignups.net/22/09/17/eleph…
In September I posted my final update to an occasional analysis of the COVID data vs. 2020 Trump/Biden voting data. I don't have enough data to drill down to the Congressional District level, but I came up with what I think are reasonable *statewide* estimates of the gap. 2/
Here's where Arizona stands at the moment, via @nytimes: Kelly up by ~90K, Hobbs up by ~11.7K, Fontes up by ~84.5K, Mayes up by ~4K.
Only 2/3 of the vote in for each, however; I have no idea how the remainder is expected to break.
Nov 9 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
OK, folks, I'm still bleary-eyed: I know Michigan Dems flipped both the state House and Senate, and that Minnesota DFL flipped the state Senate. What other noteworthy *state legislative* news is there so far?
For what it's worth, here's how much I raised for the Dems running in the 7 closest state Senate races, and how they fared.
Nov 9 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Good morning! Sounds like Dems did about as well overall as they reasonably could’ve under the circumstances.
As a native Michigander I’m thrilled at the news that it sounds like we had a great night, apparently including flipping both the state Senate and House?
Nov 8 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
📣 OK, a few more bucks will likely come in overnight (feel free to chip in a last-minute $8 donation!), but my 2022 Democratic Candidate Fundraising project is pretty much complete. I'll have a more detailed analysis later, but let's see how I did! 1/ AmericaBlueIn22.com
📣 In the end, ~6,700 people donated nearly $1.3 million to over 600 Democratic candidates at the federal, statewide & state legislative levels.
I pictured ~25% apiece between Senate, House, Statewide & Legislative. Instead it ended up more like 30/30/20/20, give or take. 2/
Nov 8 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
For the love of God, if he had simply made it free with advertising, $1/mo (or whatever) with Twitter Blue & no ads, keeping verification actual verification, it probably would’ve worked. Instead…what a mess.
Very interesting. The "DeBirdify" tool has added the ability to upload your own list of followers/following accounts to scan instead of combing through your current list. 1/
What makes this more interesting is that it tells you which handles no longer exist.
Since I was able to acquire my full list of followers & those I was following right after Musk took over, I can keep track of exactly how many of those accounts have been deleted since 10/30. 2/
Nov 5 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
OK, I've decided: Instead of giving a narcissistic billionaire $8/month to pay off his debt, I'm gonna pay the main Mastodon development team $10/month (at least for awhile) to help upgrade server capacity.
They're gonna need it to handle the crush. patreon.com/mastodon/membe…
No, this doesn't mean I'm bailing from here yet; this will remain my primary social media site as long as possible, while cross-posting over there.
And no, this doesn't mean I'm convinced that Mastodon is *the* replacement for Twitter if it comes to it. HOWEVER...
Nov 4 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
It may take a moment, but every U.S. voter over 50 will remember this.
2. Assuming it includes individuals as well as institutions, does that only include elected officials, or candidates/nominees as well?
3. Will that be limited to *federal* government accounts, or state as well? How about county level? Municipal?
Nov 3 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
For folks confused about the distinction between Mastodon and CounterSocial: As I understand it, CS is actually a "forked" version of Mastodon's codebase which has been modified to the point that it doesn't interact with the rest of the Mastodon servers. 1/
On the one hand, CS apparently has some unique features. On the other hand, this also means that if you use it you're effectively sealed off from users on thousands of other Mastodon servers.
I have accounts set up on both, but I'm quickly leaning towards Mastodon myself.