One of the perverse consequences of the MSM horror at Trump is that they have spent 3 1/2 years in terrified over-estimate of Trump's political strength and anguished poking at Democratic weaknesses.
Now it's mid-September of presidential election year and everybody remembers to do arithmetic. "Wait a minute ... 100% minus 40% = .... a lot more!" 2/x
Day in, day out, for nearly 4 years, Trump has been the most unpopular first-term president in the history of opinion polling. 3/x
The anti-Trump ceiling has been as hard and unyielding as the pro-Trump floor - and a lot bigger. And that was *before* Trump drove US society and the US economy into the worst catastrophe since the Great Depression. 4/x
We're dealing with probabilities of course, not certainties. But in 2020, it's much less probable that Trump repeats his fluke win of 2016 than that the whole ball game is over by 10 pm, with Florida called for Biden and the Senate already Blue after Collins and Tillis lose
The fact that 40% of Americans tolerated Trump's wrongdoing -and that so many GOP leaders actively connived at it - will remain a huge ethical and political problem for US society. But it's not a basis for a presidential victory in a high turnout year.
Trump in 2016 got a little more of the vote than Michael Dukakis in 1988. In 2020, Trump will probably get a smaller share of the vote than Dukakis did. Freakish as the Electoral College is, there's a limit on its ability to produce negative miracles for electoral minorities.
Looking forward to reporters interviewing women like Charlotte mayor Vi Lyles charlottenc.gov/Mayor/Pages/Me… about the secrets of the Biden majority.
There's even a 24-hour diner only a 4 minute walk from City Hall! redeyedinercharlotte.com
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