Donald Trump's approval rating in his first term moved in a narrow band: never above 50%, but also seldom below 40%, and then not much below. 1/x Even during COVID, Trump's supporters stayed true. Unhappy as they were during COVID, Trump supporters agreed to shift blame for their unhappiness to somebody else: blue-state governors, Dr Fauci, etc. 2/x

First-term Trump was also an economic idiot. He imposed escalating tariffs in first half of 2018, not only on China but on EU and Canada too. Trump bad policy triggered a big stock slump in second half 2018. 1/x Trump worried that the bad stock market of 2018 might dim his re-election chances. He spent much of 2019 desperately pleading with the Chinese for an exit from the trade war he started the year before. 2/x

There are 2 economic ideas behind the Trump tariffs. One is obviously very stupid. The other is also very stupid, but less obviously so.

(thread) The obviously stupid idea is that America should return to the industrial self-sufficiency of 1913 without regard to cost or value. Americans should manufacture their own athletic shoes and door hinges and plastic tubs, and if that requires a 125% protective tariff ... so be it!

The Trump administration appears to be actively contemplating an act of Putin-like aggression and annexation against a NATO ally US treaties are part of the supreme law of the land.

I question whether a presidential directive to the US military to invade and annex the territory of a NATO ally would be a "lawful order."

America's allies are deciding that the F-35 fighter cannot be trusted under a Putin-governed US administration. "[B]y severing maintenance support, shipments of spare parts, and cutting foreign F-35s off from U.S. computer networks, the aircraft would quickly be hobbled. …" “Without these software updates, F-35s could fly, but would be much more likely to be shot down by enemy air defenses. Also without U.S. maintainers and spare parts, it would be difficult to keep the aircraft flying for long ...." breakingdefense.com/2025/03/no-the…

Such a curious coincidence, that's exactly what Herbert Hoover said on October 25, 1929, the day after the Dow Jones dropped 9% in a single day. millercenter.org/the-presidency… Trump's stock market is down 10% from in less than 30 days. x.com/charliespierin… Soon after Herbert Hoover deployed his "fundamentals of the economy are sound" line in October 1929, he signed a big tariff increases, started a global trade war, and converted a stock market shock into a worldwide depression.

A lively industry is growing of talkers/influencers trying to sell the idea that there is some rational patriotic motive to Trump's pro-Putin foreign policy and his costly trade wars. Don't believe them. My latest. theatlantic.com/international/… Trump-splainers pretend that cozying to Russia as part of a rational strategy to counter China. But no rational US strategy to counter China includes launching a trade war against Australia. Yet that's what Trump just did. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

In the minds of many, Jews are a problem. They were supposed to be replaced by Christianity, or by Islam, or by nationalism, or by socialism - and yet they keep lingering on, refusing to accept the message that history is done with them and it's time for them to be gone. In the aftermath of the Holocaust, it's awkward to say directly that Jews should not exist any more. But many people are very ready to say - and even more to hear - that the Holocaust shows that Jews need to improve, be less difficult and particular.

I appreciate why those appalled by the attack on Congress January 6, 2021, emphasize the violence against police that day. Trump supporters and fellow-travelers will concede that violence against police is wrong - even if they hedge with many "what abouts?" 1/x The violence against police on January 6, 2021, was vicious and intentional. Yet the anti-police violence was incidental to the day's central crime. President Trump incited - and thousands of his supporters attempted - a violent plot to overturn a democratic election. 2/x

In 2017, Trump inherited a strong economy, low interest rates, and a generally stable international situation. For the next 3 years, Trump enjoyed the dividends from his inheritance - until he crashed into his first real crisis, the COVID pandemic. 1/x In 2025, Trump inherits a strong economy again, but this time shadowed by rising interest rates. He arrives with expensive commitments: trade wars, mass deportations, renewal of a big tax cut, etc. US foreign policy also faces more dangers than his easy 2017 inheritance. 2/x

I was glad to be invited onto @Morning_Joe this morning to talk about Syria. The show is one of the most important platforms in US politics. With Trump threatening to jail his critics, small d-democrats must stand together. I always speak freely without fear anywhere I appear. I’ll recapitulate here what I said this morning. I reminded viewers of President-elect Trump’s statement that Syria is none of US business - and his VP-elect’s bad habit of repeating Russian propaganda that the Assad regime protected minorities.

Don't be misdirected. The nomination of Kash Patel slathers frosting and sprinkles on the outrage ... but the outrage is the announced firing of Director Wray. Latest in @TheAtlantic theatlantic.com/politics/archi… Even if Patel nomination, like Matt Gaetz's for AG, eventually collapses and he is replaced by a less ridiculous nominee - the harm is that Trump is treating the FBI as an extension of presidential power. Read here theatlantic.com/politics/archi…

Canadian governments - federal, provincial, municipal - better have plans ready for when displaced asylum-seekers (thousands? tens of thousands? hundreds of thousands?) attempt to cross the border from the United States into Canada. Under present law and policy, border-crossers from the US can be refused entry into Canada. But that policy will become hard to enforce if the number of border-crosses gets very big.canada.ca/en/immigration…

One of my best friends in elementary school was a boy named Brian. He vanished from class during our 6th grade year: sick. No, we could not visit, the teacher said. We were encouraged to draw and write cards instead. 1/x The card-writing became a regular ritual for our class and for Brian's friends. Then came the day when the teacher solemnly informed the class that Brian had died. He had succumbed to childhood leukemia, a hopeless killer in the early 1970s. 2/x

Everyone who endorses the false claim that the US economy of 2024 is an inflation-wracked hellscape of misery for working people ...

is doing advance comms work for the Trump administration when in 90 days time they start taking credit for the best economy since the 1960s. From July

https://x.com/davidfrum/status/1816627065531293886

Pro-Trump political violence in 2021 was not spontaneous. It was incited by a serving president. The president also refused to protect the intended targets of violence. The violence of 2021 did not erupt bottom-up. It was organized top-down. 1/x Those conditions do not prevail this time. Trump is out of office, any incitement will be - and will obviously appear as - blatantly an act of rebellion. The serving president will enforce the law with necessary force. 2/x

Closing argument in @TheAtlantic The rest is up to you.

theatlantic.com/politics/archi… A test of loyalty. theatlantic.com/politics/archi…

I posted the below last night in an emotional mood. It was answered by many generous comments in remembrance of my lost Miranda, and I thank every commenter. Of course there were also some other comments. A thread about those....

https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1850359082001281254

I'll quote one of those "others," but it stands for many: "You’re voting for the abortion of your grandchild? How exciting!"

That phrase "your grandchild" came up again and again - as if my daughter's child, had she lived to have one, would belong to *me* more than to her.

Do you think somebody possibly has video of Trump mocking the handicapped, demeaning US prisoners of war, boasting about sexually assaulting women, praising Vladimir Putin, or urging a violent attack on the US Capitol? That would be huge. Confessing that he spied on underage girls undressing? Promising to release his tax returns, but never doing it?
Reminiscing fondly about his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein?
Publicly fantasizing about "dating" his own daughter?
Imagine if there were video of any of that.

Below is a fascinating example of Trump supporters' fantasy world. They tell a story of Trump charity to Nelson Mandela that somehow has gone untold until now.

What actually happened was that Trump creditors seized his "Trump Shuttle" airline during Trump's first bankruptcy in summer 1990. The creditors leased Trump-branded planes to anyone who would pay a commercial rate, including Nelson Mandela's eight-city US tour that year. No Trump did not have a trusted secret black woman senior executive at his side in his early years. pbs.org/newshour/polit…

You've probably seen this image, or some version of it. (thread) The image is created by and for western sympathizers with Palestinian violence. The slogan after all is written in English. (2/x)