Rating change: #VA05 race between Cameron Webb (D) and Bob Good (R) moves from Lean R to Toss Up at @CookPolitical as Republicans sound the alarm. cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…
If you guessed Charlottesville, VA, you win. A month ago I wouldn’t have guessed we would be moving #VA05 - a deeply polarized, Trump +11% seat - to Toss Up.
But could it be deja vu? In 2008, Tom Perriello pulled off the upset of the cycle in #VA05 against a "biblical" R who ran a stone age campaign.
In 2020, Cameron Webb - perhaps Dems' best House candidate anywhere in the country - is running against a "biblical" R & divided GOP.
Perfect storms still happen b/c candidates still matter. In #CA25 earlier this year, Rs flipped a Clinton +7% seat by nominating a "unicorn:" Mike Garcia was a young, Hispanic fighter pilot and defense contractor w/ deep community ties. The profile simply worked.
In #VA05, Dems may have found their own their own "unicorn:" Webb is a young, telegenic Black doctor w/ deep ties in both Charlottesville & Southside who touts strong backing from law enforcement and working for "both presidents Obama & Trump."
Meanwhile, Bob Good (R), a former Liberty Univ. athletics official and wrestling coach, launched his campaign b/c Rep. Denver Riggleman (R) officiated a gay wedding.
If Riggleman (who called his GOP convention loss "rigged") lifts a finger for Good, it might be his middle one.
But if you really want to know why Webb is running *ahead* of Biden in multiple #VA05 polls, watch these ads:
Cameron Webb (D): host2.advertisinganalyticsllc.com/admo/viewer/28…
Bob Good (R): host2.advertisinganalyticsllc.com/admo/viewer/31…
...then tell me what stands out.
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