I have no idea what will happen in the election. But I keep seeing statements to the effect that Trump may have an upside if the economy is strong. People, the election is only 1 1/2 months away; some voting has already begun! 1/
This means that there just isn't time for economic perceptions to change much. There will be only 1 more jobs report, based on data from *last week*; it will probably show gains, but at a slowing pace, and won't change anyone's mind (unless it's disastrous) 2/
There will be a 3rd quarter GDP report, which will show big gains — but I think most people will realize that it's about the summer snapback, and not about whether we're making America great again again again 3/
So I have a hard time seeing the economy as a major factor. Meanwhile, don't look now, but coronavirus cases are plateauing or maybe even creeping up again. Hard to see much Trump upside there either 4/
Yes, of course Trump can still win. Maybe polling is systematically wrong; maybe whatever October surprise(s) he concocts will actually work, not backfire bc of lack of credibility. But the idea that fundamentals can come to his rescue at this late date seems far-fetched 5/
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